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Arizona Cardinals
Vulnerability: Carson Palmer is suddenly erratic. Palmer threw three touchdowns in Saturday night's overtime 26-20 victory against the Packers. He also threw two interceptions. One of his touchdowns was a tip-drill near-interception. Packers defenders also dropped a few potential interceptions.
Perhaps the finger injury Palmer suffered in December is affecting his throws. Maybe the Packers pass rush and fine play in the secondary took Palmer out of his game. Whatever the case, the Cardinals are not nearly as scary when their vertical passing game is operating at less-than-peak capacity.
Vulnerability: The Cardinals red-zone offense is not up to championship snuff. The Cardinals settled for two field goals and an interception on three of their six red-zone trips Saturday night. For the season, they ranked 12th in the NFL with a 54.72 percent touchdown conversion rate in the red zone, according to NFLGSIS.com (subscription required).
Ranking 12th isn't terrible, but the Cardinals ranked in the top five in most offensive categories. When they reached the red zone, their lack of a short-yardage running game and the fact that their offense is built on stretching the defense vertically forced them to settle for too many field goals. You don't beat the Panthers by settling for a bunch of field goals.
Carolina Panthers
Vulnerability: An inability to finish off games. Here's my column on the subject.
Vulnerability: The cornerback corps consists of Josh Norman and two flashing targets. The Panthers miss Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere, who both got hurt late in the season.
Russell Wilson spurred the Seahawks' near comeback by targeting nickel corner Robert McClain. Late-season acquisition Cortland Finnegan, whose best years are well behind him, also spent time in the crosshairs.
Luckily for the Panthers, they built such a commanding first-quarter lead they could drop Luke Kuechly as an extra safety so he and Kurt Coleman could race around the secondary putting out fires.
The Cardinals have the fastest, deepest receiving corps remaining in the playoffs. The Panthers will have a hard time matching up against them. Luckily for the Panthers, Carson Palmer is also on this "vulnerability" list.
Denver Broncos
Vulnerability: Peyton Manning still looks like a cross between late-career Johnny Unitas and Father Time. Sunday's 23-16 win over the Steelers wasn't exactly an offensive tour de force. The Broncos converted three of 15 third downs and scored their lone touchdown with three minutes left in the game.
The Broncos scored their first six points of the game thanks to a long punt return and a shanked Steelers punt. Their next three points came on a 51-yard Brandon McManus field goal that looked like something out of a Mario Golf video game. Manning completed 21 of 37 passes for 222 yards, looking rickety while taking shots and missing receivers for most of the afternoon.
I don't have to spell out for you what that could mean for, sigh, Brady-Manning XVII, which is a thing that is actually happening.
Vulnerability: The running game isn't reminding anyone of the Lombardi Packers. The Broncos rushed for 109 yards on 33 carries, but one 34-yard C.J. Anderson rush inflates the total. Take it away (as well as some Manning "carries," one of which was a kneel) and the Broncos averaged 2.53 yards per carry
New England Patriots
Vulnerability: The Patriots lack even a semblance of a running game. The Patriots rushed for 38 yards in Saturday's 27-20 win over the Chiefs. They rushed for 63 and 70 yards, respectively, in their final two regular-season games. And they rushed for 39 yards in their loss to the Broncos in November.
Now, we all know Tom Brady can use short passes to simulate a ball-control running game. And only grouchy uncles still mutter about "establishing the run" by spending the first half plunging off tackle for two yards a pop. No one expects the Patriots to rush 40 times for 150 yards unless they build a 57-3 halftime lead.
But a wisp of a running game can help a team convert touchdowns in the red zone and make it easier for them to ice the clock. The Patriots settled for two late-game field goals against the Chiefs, when touchdowns would have put the game out of reach. They gave the ball back to the Chiefs on a three-and-out late in the game and counted on their defense—and Andy Reid's almost hallucinogenic approach to clock management—to get them out of a potential jam.
If the Patriots fail to put the Broncos away in the fourth quarter...well, that's precisely what happened in November, isn't it?
Vulnerability: Injuries are once again an issue, this time on defense. Linebacker Jamie Collins has a strained oblique. Jerod Mayo replaced him and suffered a shoulder injury almost immediately. Chandler Jones suffered a leg injury late in the fourth quarter.
As usual, injury reports out of Foxborough are scant and probably fictional, though Mike Loyko of NEPatriotsDraft did tweet that Collins plans to play Sunday. The situation at linebacker bears watching. Career special teamer/practice-squader Jonathan Freeny played a lot of snaps in the middle against the Chiefs. The one thing Peyton Manning still does with Peyton Manning efficiency is make decisions at the line of scrimmage. If he sees an unprepared or slowed-by-injury linebacker across from him, he'll attack.
Arizona Cardinals
Vulnerability: Carson Palmer is suddenly erratic. Palmer threw three touchdowns in Saturday night's overtime 26-20 victory against the Packers. He also threw two interceptions. One of his touchdowns was a tip-drill near-interception. Packers defenders also dropped a few potential interceptions.
Perhaps the finger injury Palmer suffered in December is affecting his throws. Maybe the Packers pass rush and fine play in the secondary took Palmer out of his game. Whatever the case, the Cardinals are not nearly as scary when their vertical passing game is operating at less-than-peak capacity.
Vulnerability: The Cardinals red-zone offense is not up to championship snuff. The Cardinals settled for two field goals and an interception on three of their six red-zone trips Saturday night. For the season, they ranked 12th in the NFL with a 54.72 percent touchdown conversion rate in the red zone, according to NFLGSIS.com (subscription required).
Ranking 12th isn't terrible, but the Cardinals ranked in the top five in most offensive categories. When they reached the red zone, their lack of a short-yardage running game and the fact that their offense is built on stretching the defense vertically forced them to settle for too many field goals. You don't beat the Panthers by settling for a bunch of field goals.
Carolina Panthers
Vulnerability: An inability to finish off games. Here's my column on the subject.
Vulnerability: The cornerback corps consists of Josh Norman and two flashing targets. The Panthers miss Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere, who both got hurt late in the season.
Russell Wilson spurred the Seahawks' near comeback by targeting nickel corner Robert McClain. Late-season acquisition Cortland Finnegan, whose best years are well behind him, also spent time in the crosshairs.
Luckily for the Panthers, they built such a commanding first-quarter lead they could drop Luke Kuechly as an extra safety so he and Kurt Coleman could race around the secondary putting out fires.
The Cardinals have the fastest, deepest receiving corps remaining in the playoffs. The Panthers will have a hard time matching up against them. Luckily for the Panthers, Carson Palmer is also on this "vulnerability" list.
Denver Broncos
Vulnerability: Peyton Manning still looks like a cross between late-career Johnny Unitas and Father Time. Sunday's 23-16 win over the Steelers wasn't exactly an offensive tour de force. The Broncos converted three of 15 third downs and scored their lone touchdown with three minutes left in the game.
The Broncos scored their first six points of the game thanks to a long punt return and a shanked Steelers punt. Their next three points came on a 51-yard Brandon McManus field goal that looked like something out of a Mario Golf video game. Manning completed 21 of 37 passes for 222 yards, looking rickety while taking shots and missing receivers for most of the afternoon.
I don't have to spell out for you what that could mean for, sigh, Brady-Manning XVII, which is a thing that is actually happening.
Vulnerability: The running game isn't reminding anyone of the Lombardi Packers. The Broncos rushed for 109 yards on 33 carries, but one 34-yard C.J. Anderson rush inflates the total. Take it away (as well as some Manning "carries," one of which was a kneel) and the Broncos averaged 2.53 yards per carry
New England Patriots
Vulnerability: The Patriots lack even a semblance of a running game. The Patriots rushed for 38 yards in Saturday's 27-20 win over the Chiefs. They rushed for 63 and 70 yards, respectively, in their final two regular-season games. And they rushed for 39 yards in their loss to the Broncos in November.
Now, we all know Tom Brady can use short passes to simulate a ball-control running game. And only grouchy uncles still mutter about "establishing the run" by spending the first half plunging off tackle for two yards a pop. No one expects the Patriots to rush 40 times for 150 yards unless they build a 57-3 halftime lead.
But a wisp of a running game can help a team convert touchdowns in the red zone and make it easier for them to ice the clock. The Patriots settled for two late-game field goals against the Chiefs, when touchdowns would have put the game out of reach. They gave the ball back to the Chiefs on a three-and-out late in the game and counted on their defense—and Andy Reid's almost hallucinogenic approach to clock management—to get them out of a potential jam.
If the Patriots fail to put the Broncos away in the fourth quarter...well, that's precisely what happened in November, isn't it?
Vulnerability: Injuries are once again an issue, this time on defense. Linebacker Jamie Collins has a strained oblique. Jerod Mayo replaced him and suffered a shoulder injury almost immediately. Chandler Jones suffered a leg injury late in the fourth quarter.
As usual, injury reports out of Foxborough are scant and probably fictional, though Mike Loyko of NEPatriotsDraft did tweet that Collins plans to play Sunday. The situation at linebacker bears watching. Career special teamer/practice-squader Jonathan Freeny played a lot of snaps in the middle against the Chiefs. The one thing Peyton Manning still does with Peyton Manning efficiency is make decisions at the line of scrimmage. If he sees an unprepared or slowed-by-injury linebacker across from him, he'll attack.
