Drafting a QB

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blackbart

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Alright, let's move this conversation in a more realistic direction. Would you be willing to trade two 1st round picks, one 2nd, and a 3rd/4th to get Goff?
I don't have all the information I would need to make that decision. I have no idea what is going on with Mannion or what will happen in FA. I don't know enough about Goff other than what I have read and he is not being touted as the #1 overall pick. With what information I have seen I don't see him being worthy of that many draft picks.

If the Rams think Mannion has a chance to drive this offense for the foreseeable future along with continuing with their approach to the draft I don't think they would do it. I see them going BPA and not reaching for a QB because other people think they need to. If there is a QB there and they have him rated higher than whoever else is available they are smart enough to make that pick. But if they have someone else rated high I believe they would consider options from someone else wanting to trade up or take that other player.
 

Memphis Ram

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In terms of stats? Sure. In terms of ability, I doubt that. He models his game after Peyton Manning and it shows.

Andrew Luck did not return for his Senior season. And I'm have a hard time believing being 240 pounds instead of 215 pounds makes a difference in QB success.

Yep, Luck was a better athlete. But Goff is more mobile than a number of successful NFL QBs.

You're kind of ignoring the point to nitpick. I'm not comparing Luck to Goff. I'm say that Goff would have gotten the Luck hype if he had played in a pro style offense. Goff is an outstanding thrower that processes things extremely quickly. His pocket presence, movement, and poise are also top tier.

My bad. Your are right. Though he graduated a month after the draft, Luck went back for his redshirt sophomore season and came out as a redshirt junior according to NCAA guidelines.

Anyway, the size of a QB can play a role in his success. These guys have got to be able to withstand some serious hits. Quite frankly, I even prefer guys that can withstand a decent swipe by defenders and not go down as easily or curl up into a ball. And if Goff is 215 he is hiding better than anyone I've ever seen. I'm guessing 200 - 205 soakng wet as I'm 6'5" 215 and I'm way bigger than this kid. That said, I'm sure he's going to add the artificial weight Bradford, Bridgewater, and others did for the combine.

And I wasn't ignoring the point. What I was saying is that he would have to have had the similar success in that pro style offense to get the hype. Cook played in a pro style offense. But, he wasn't as successful as QB as thus less hype.
 
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dieterbrock

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IIRC teams that moved up to draft QB (and spent a boatload to do it) only had to move several places. The Giants and Skins as per current conversation.
Moving up from 18 to top 1-3 seems almost impossible.
Has a team moved up that far in recent history?
 

Stel

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IIRC teams that moved up to draft QB (and spent a boatload to do it) only had to move several places. The Giants and Skins as per current conversation.
Moving up from 18 to top 1-3 seems almost impossible.
Has a team moved up that far in recent history?

Not impossible, just expensive. I'd say the closest recently was Atlanta moving up for Julio Jones in 2011. They moved from #26 to #6. Analyzing that transaction by the trade value chart, you'd get:
Cleveland gave up #6 (1600 pts)
Atlanta gave up #26 (700 pts), #59 (310 pts), and #124 (48 pts) for a total of 1058 pts in current draft, plus future picks in the following year's draft (a bit harder to value) of a first round (500 pts) and a fourth round (70 pts), for a total of 1628 pts. A pretty fair trade.

Our trade with Washington also works out fairly close except for the 3rd first round pick Washington gave us. It ended up being the premium to move up.

St. Louis gave up #2 (2600 pts)
Washington gave up #6 (1600 pts) and #39 (510 pts) for a total of 2110 pts in the current draft, plus the next year's #1 (500 pts) [which made the trade fairly even], plus the #1 two years in the future (say 250 pts). The total Washington gave up was 2860 pts. Worth it for your future franchise QB (unfortunately, they chose poorly).

For St. Louis to move up into one of the top picks would be expensive, but not impossible. The Philadelphia second rounder is essentially the same value as future first round pick and so gives us a lot of draft capital. A move to #1 would likely be too expensive unless a current player was involved which means you haver to give up someone that would make baby Jesus cry (like Aaron Donald). Moving up to #3, however, could be done in a fairly reasonable fashion. The transaction would be something like:

Their #3 is 2200 pts.
Our #18 (900 pts), #42 (480 pts), and #48 (420 pts) total 1800 pts. Throw in our 2017 1st round pick (500 pts) and we're up to 2300. If offered, that deal happens.

IF the prospect the Rams believe will be the franchise QB of the future is on the board at #3, they have the capital to get him and, as history has shown, they have to moxie to make a deal. The question is whether they think they need such a prospect.
 

dieterbrock

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Not impossible, just expensive. I'd say the closest recently was Atlanta moving up for Julio Jones in 2011. They moved from #26 to #6. Analyzing that transaction by the trade value chart, you'd get:
Cleveland gave up #6 (1600 pts)
Atlanta gave up #26 (700 pts), #59 (310 pts), and #124 (48 pts) for a total of 1058 pts in current draft, plus future picks in the following year's draft (a bit harder to value) of a first round (500 pts) and a fourth round (70 pts), for a total of 1628 pts. A pretty fair trade.

Our trade with Washington also works out fairly close except for the 3rd first round pick Washington gave us. It ended up being the premium to move up.

St. Louis gave up #2 (2600 pts)
Washington gave up #6 (1600 pts) and #39 (510 pts) for a total of 2110 pts in the current draft, plus the next year's #1 (500 pts) [which made the trade fairly even], plus the #1 two years in the future (say 250 pts). The total Washington gave up was 2860 pts. Worth it for your future franchise QB (unfortunately, they chose poorly).

For St. Louis to move up into one of the top picks would be expensive, but not impossible. The Philadelphia second rounder is essentially the same value as future first round pick and so gives us a lot of draft capital. A move to #1 would likely be too expensive unless a current player was involved which means you haver to give up someone that would make baby Jesus cry (like Aaron Donald). Moving up to #3, however, could be done in a fairly reasonable fashion. The transaction would be something like:

Their #3 is 2200 pts.
Our #18 (900 pts), #42 (480 pts), and #48 (420 pts) total 1800 pts. Throw in our 2017 1st round pick (500 pts) and we're up to 2300. If offered, that deal happens.

IF the prospect the Rams believe will be the franchise QB of the future is on the board at #3, they have the capital to get him and, as history has shown, they have to moxie to make a deal. The question is whether they think they need such a prospect.
Trading for a QB is a bit trickier. Also look at the math on the Redskins deal, the Rams got the #2 pick in the draft out of that, worth what? 2500 points? Dont see how you factored as 250

The thing is that the Rams would be competing for that spot. With teams already in side the top 10, possibly top 5.
Have to figure the bidding would start with both #2 picks, next years 1st and obviously the current #1

But you are 100% right, I mis spoke completely. Its not impossible, just expensive.
But money well spent IMO if you're getting your QB
 

Stel

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Trading for a QB is a bit trickier. Also look at the math on the Redskins deal, the Rams got the #2 pick in the draft out of that, worth what? 2500 points? Dont see how you factored as 250

The thing is that the Rams would be competing for that spot. With teams already in side the top 10, possibly top 5.
Have to figure the bidding would start with both #2 picks, next years 1st and obviously the current #1

But you are 100% right, I mis spoke completely. Its not impossible, just expensive.
But money well spent IMO if you're getting your QB

Think you misread my post. #2 is 2600 points. The 250 point number is the first round pick two years off. Generally, you halve the value of the pick for each year in the future. Since you never know where a team will pick in the future, assume the middle of the round.

I don't think the fact that you want a QB makes it any trickier, just may lead to more people trying to move up. You're always bidding for a pick. Rare that no one else would be interested.
 

jrry32

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My bad. Your are right. Though he graduated a month after the draft, Luck went back for his redshirt sophomore season and came out as a redshirt junior according to NCAA guidelines.

Anyway, the size of a QB can play a role in his success. These guys have got to be able to withstand some serious hits. Quite frankly, I even prefer guys that can withstand a decent swipe by defenders and not go down as easily or curl up into a ball. And if Goff is 215 he is hiding better than anyone I've ever seen. I'm guessing 200 - 205 soakng wet as I'm 6'5" 215 and I'm way bigger than this kid. That said, I'm sure he's going to add the artificial weight Bradford, Bridgewater, and others did for the combine.

And I wasn't ignoring the point. What I was saying is that he would have to have had the similar success in that pro style offense to get the hype. Cook played in a pro style offense. But, he wasn't as successful as QB as thus less hype.

He said he's 215. Danario looked like a twig too...but he was 215+.

Yep, he'd need to play like he has been but I think he would.
 

jrry32

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Think you misread my post. #2 is 2600 points. The 250 point number is the first round pick two years off. Generally, you halve the value of the pick for each year in the future. Since you never know where a team will pick in the future, assume the middle of the round.

I don't think the fact that you want a QB makes it any trickier, just may lead to more people trying to move up. You're always bidding for a pick. Rare that no one else would be interested.

Eh, I don't agree with devaluing first round picks like that.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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No way in hell I give 3 #1s and end up in draft day hell for that long, there is no player worth that. I have seen some people listing Goff as the number 2 QB, and definitely not the #1 overall pick. freak that.

This team needs stability and a way to replace guys that are likely to move on after their rookie contracts. The Rams are not going to be a team throwing the ball 35 times a game unless they are in a ass kicking. Giving up the farm for a maybe guy is a good way to stay outside the playoffs. No thanks.

There in lies the problem. How good do the Rams think this years crop of QBs are? This regime has demonstrated a very high propensity for identifying talent at many positions. They nail the defensive picks and at this point it really seems that they got the Oline picks down too. The Oline was a spot where they whiffed badly on in the past if you recall. However, there has been speculation that they are not the best QB evaluators, allowing Carr and Bridgewater to slip through their fingers. I know Snead tries every avenue to evaluate talent. He is always into the cutting edge evaluation tools. And even though this group missed badly on Foles, they had the foresight to trade a 7th for Keenum as a backup. That was a shrewd move (that unfortunately led to the Rams being out of reach for a top QB, but I'll take the Seattle win and the streak). So can they accurately evaluate QBs? Do they even like what they see this year?

And the real problem is that the more talent we add, the more guys we have to pay.

That is an interesting point. Spending picks on a QB will allow them a reprieve on the sudden Free Agent barrage from all of the compiled picks.


I would IMMEDIATELY make that kind of trade for Newton, Rodgers, ect. That is a no-brainer in my book. I would trade 4 1st round picks for Cam Newton.

For firsts? That is a bit much in my book. That could be 4 Aaron Donald level players with the way this group has been hitting on their picks. Four more picks like that and this D would be passed the historic Ravens D.


If the Rams think Mannion has a chance to drive this offense for the foreseeable future along with continuing with their approach to the draft I don't think they would do it. I see them going BPA and not reaching for a QB because other people think they need to. If there is a QB there and they have him rated higher than whoever else is available they are smart enough to make that pick. But if they have someone else rated high I believe they would consider options from someone else wanting to trade up or take that other player.

And there you hit on another viable point that we cannot answer. What exactly is there evaluation of Mannion, now that they have him, in comparison to what is available and the cost to move up. Did they get Mannion and say, 'wow this kid is going to be great', or ' This kid is not nearly as good as we thought'.

Plus how does the depth of this draft and the next one stack up? I happen to think that this draft is very weak at the top. The first round is not riddled with talent like the it was two years ago. I am not sure about the next one but I am sure Snead has a tab on that already. If there are not top talents like Aaron Donald, CJ Mosley, Zach Martin, Odell Beckham then, despite the valuation charts being standard a first round pick at #18 this year is not worth the same pick in the 2014 draft.

Also keep in mind that if they do move and land a QB that takes this team to the next level, then their picks wont be top ten picks anymore. They will be in the 20's, hopefully pick #32. So what they are giving up suddenly doesn't sound so great.

If the talent is there then this seems like a very good year to make the trade, because of the draft not being loaded with stars in round 1. The Rams pick may already make it nearly impossible to draft one of the few stars, because they are so far back. If the team continues to improve, even without drafting a QB, then their picks still end up being higher. I think with the team maturing it is likely that the top ten picks wont happen for a while either way.
 

Stel

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Never lose sight of the most important issue in this discussion: At this point, we do not have a known above average starting QB to run this team and until we have one all the other talent in the league will have trouble getting us in to the playoffs or allowing us to go deep in the playoffs.
 

NateDawg122

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For firsts? That is a bit much in my book. That could be 4 Aaron Donald level players with the way this group has been hitting on their picks. Four more picks like that and this D would be passed the historic Ravens D.

Yes, because Hall of Famers like Donald come out every year in the draft. SMH.
 

blackbart

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There in lies the problem. How good do the Rams think this years crop of QBs are? This regime has demonstrated a very high propensity for identifying talent at many positions. They nail the defensive picks and at this point it really seems that they got the Oline picks down too. The Oline was a spot where they whiffed badly on in the past if you recall. However, there has been speculation that they are not the best QB evaluators, allowing Carr and Bridgewater to slip through their fingers. I know Snead tries every avenue to evaluate talent. He is always into the cutting edge evaluation tools. And even though this group missed badly on Foles, they had the foresight to trade a 7th for Keenum as a backup. That was a shrewd move (that unfortunately led to the Rams being out of reach for a top QB, but I'll take the Seattle win and the streak). So can they accurately evaluate QBs? Do they even like what they see this year?


And there you hit on another viable point that we cannot answer. What exactly is there evaluation of Mannion, now that they have him, in comparison to what is available and the cost to move up. Did they get Mannion and say, 'wow this kid is going to be great', or ' This kid is not nearly as good as we thought'.

Plus how does the depth of this draft and the next one stack up? I happen to think that this draft is very weak at the top. The first round is not riddled with talent like the it was two years ago. I am not sure about the next one but I am sure Snead has a tab on that already. If there are not top talents like Aaron Donald, CJ Mosley, Zach Martin, Odell Beckham then, despite the valuation charts being standard a first round pick at #18 this year is not worth the same pick in the 2014 draft.

Also keep in mind that if they do move and land a QB that takes this team to the next level, then their picks wont be top ten picks anymore. They will be in the 20's, hopefully pick #32. So what they are giving up suddenly doesn't sound so great.

If the talent is there then this seems like a very good year to make the trade, because of the draft not being loaded with stars in round 1. The Rams pick may already make it nearly impossible to draft one of the few stars, because they are so far back. If the team continues to improve, even without drafting a QB, then their picks still end up being higher. I think with the team maturing it is likely that the top ten picks wont happen for a while either way.

I have a really hard time saying they missed on Carr or Bridgewater by drafting Donald and one of the best OLT in front of them. Did they try to move up to get a shot at Carr? At that point they as well as most of us probably thought Sam was still the future at QB for us and there were still holes to be plugged.

2015 taking Gurely while it was taking a chance that chance was on a superior talent and I'm sure no one is sorry, especially after the top B talent was off the board. Did they try trading up for one of those guys? Does anyone outside the organization know?? The only other guy off the board after the first two was Greyson is he a better pick than big Rob Havenstein, I don't think so. Taking Mannion when they did tells me they thought highly of him and realized they no longer had a longer term answer at QB. They had their opportunity and a value pick at that slot.

All the conjecture from fans saying they should have done this or that without knowing what they did try and what got shot down along with the talent they did get is fun but it just isn't how things really work.

I don't think this years QB talent is all that great, certainly not much if any better than Mannion even the most talked about guy Goff. Who if he really is all that good we have absolutely zero chance of drafting.

Our front office knows a heck of a lot more about evaluating talent than anyone posting here. They have rebuilt the worst football team EVER and done a damn fine job even with the crap storm that has derailed their original plans. Giving away the farm to reach for a prospect with some talent who MIGHT be a solid NFL QB is a long stretch not worth the risk. Stay the course continue to draft top tier talent and fill the holes created in FA with a vet here and there.

This team is really close and it would surprise me if Fisher and crew do not get new contracts very soon. I think they will and will be here to see this team make a run through the playoffs for the next 5-10 years. Will Mannion lead that run at QB, maybe or it might be the new whipping boy at QB Keenum who turns out to be the next BMOC for the Rams who knows.
 

blackbart

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Yes, because Hall of Famers like Donald come out every year in the draft. SMH.
Donald is a great talent but he is still years away for HOF and yes talent at his level comes out every year. It might be other positions but there is great talent coming out every year just look at the guys the Rams have drafted recently and that is only 1 of 32 teams.

Robert Quinn, Todd Gurley, Aaron Donald
 

NateDawg122

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Donald is a great talent but he is still years away for HOF and yes talent at his level comes out every year. It might be other positions but there is great talent coming out every year just look at the guys the Rams have drafted recently and that is only 1 of 32 teams.

Robert Quinn, Todd Gurley, Aaron Donald

Rarely do you find talents like Donald in the mid 1st round, which is where the Rams will be picking if they keep their first round picks. Donald is the best player at his position and possibly the best defensive player in the NFL. That type of talent doesn't come around often. Same story with Gurley. If he hadn't had the ACL he would've been a top 5 pick and he's a running back.
 

blackbart

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Rarely do you find talents like Donald in the mid 1st round, which is where the Rams will be picking if they keep their first round picks. Donald is the best player at his position and possibly the best defensive player in the NFL. That type of talent doesn't come around often. Same story with Gurley. If he hadn't had the ACL he would've been a top 5 pick and he's a running back.
Yep the Rams staff is pretty good at this whole draft thing aren't they
 

Dieter the Brock

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Never lose sight of the most important issue in this discussion: At this point, we do not have a known above average starting QB to run this team and until we have one all the other talent in the league will have trouble getting us in to the playoffs or allowing us to go deep in the playoffs.

Exactly !
The trouble is Goff, lynch, Cook, and Wentz or whomever we might select in 2016 will also be completely unknown quantity -- I mean nobody knows for sure if they are gonna be above average starters or super stars

Until these young QB's have at least 2-3 years under their belt like Bridgewater, Manziel, Garropolo, or Bortles, we don't have any idea how these guys will play out -- i remember all these dudes on Ram Stalk saying we blew it big by letting RG3 slip through our hands -- but boy do we get the better of that trade. And for Washington instead of their savior 1st pick RG3 they are being led to the playoffs by a 4th round pick in Cousins - not a first or a second pick but a 4th

Good for Cousins and good for all hose who know competing is the best way to make your make in history - who cares where you are picked, just ball!!!! And we will appreciate you.

What is perplexing me and others (I think) is why those of us who aren't high on Goff or necessarily drafting a QB are met with such hostility as if one opinion matters most - we all have good ideas here and we all care deeply for this team

But what is "delusional" is thinking just by drafting a QB with the first or second is a sure fire cure all
*
Bortles is playing well but he still hasn't led his team anywhere and I doubt they get to the playoffs next year - despite that he is good and wish we had him on our team

Again..... None of us are against drafting a QB like we have the past two drafts - but it ain't gonna be Goff.

If you look at Garrett Gilbert and Sean Mannion both of which have very similar measurable a and are also sons of coaches -- this regime looks for a certain things in their prospects and take a lot of stock in their lineage, etc, I mean look at all the nepotism in this regime - fassell, Shotty,
Mannion, TJ McDonald etc....

So I'm only suggesting if you want to look for a QB prospect the Rams might draft look to Gilbert and Mannion as examples of what we are looking for. A guy like Lynch or Hackenberg is more along what Fisher and Snead are looking for in my opinion

And may I dare to suggest that going into a rough and tumblr off-season for this team that instead of insulting or ridiculing our fellow Ram brothers for their viewpoints that we embrace them and enjoy the differing opinions for what they are - pure fucking speculation.

Anyway Happy New Year
 

blackbart

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Never said they weren't but if you think they're going to get that type of talent every year you're delusional.
Did I say that?

You said that kind of talent doesn't come out every year, I just don't agree and gave examples just on the Rams.