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I'm like a lone voice in the wilderness on some of these QBs, so for posterity here's how I think this draft is gonna shape up for the QB draft order and why:
1. Mariota. He has it all: big arm, wheels, height, the measurables are there for the scouts to go crazy projecting him along with uncanny accuracy on the move. He will likely go 1 overall and will need to adjust to the NFL game but until that point his athleticism is outstanding. Likely will start with inconsistent results unless a team with a "now" roster with the exception of QB trades up for him. I suspect the Rams will end up grading him very, very high given that he is a better-passing version of Colon Krapondick with an ability to keep his eyes downfield and throw accurately at full speed. If the Rams move up for anyone, it will be Mariota.
2. Winston. Teams are going to be terrified of him but it won't matter. That's how talented he is, and I absolutely love his tendency to challenge his teammates he is an excellent leader. 2nd QB taken, like with Mariota has all the measurables. I believe his rookie season will go pretty well but long term he will fail in the NFL because I don't think he will be dedicated enough to be a top QB in the NFL. Talent alone won't get him there and he will be the latest high end talent to demonstrate much of what determines success at that level is desire and willingness to work your butt off, study film of opponents, etc. I suspect the Rams will grade him high, but I suspect they'll get bad vibes from insider info from the Fla State coaching staff, which the best and most connected coaches are privy to.
3. Mannion. He will rise to late first or second round at the least (I have seen him listed as late as 5th round which is pretty funny to me, we'll see if I'm right). His junior year showed what he can do with better talent around him. This year the team around him struggled and he handled himself quite well throughout shouldering the whole deal as the leader. Only knock on him I have is his feet in the pocket particularly with pressure, however he comes with advantages too. Probably the most ready of all QBs to play now, dude has a lot of games played being required to pre-snap read. Long term I think he will be an average to above average QB depending on what type system he ends up in. Not elite, but he's gonna play for a long time in the NFL and he's resilient/stays healthy.
4. Petty. If he comes out I think he will be the fourth QB taken for a couple reasons: he is a very, very good passer in spite of his smaller number of snaps/games played. Also, he is athletic and dangerous on the move to defenses. In this class he's a guy you can get outside that early range that actually has a high ceiling and who is more than just a runner. Takes a lot of hits in games I watch, and it shows with the injuries which I don't like, however the dude is tough as nails and had to be pulled out of the game where he injured his back. Probably third round but may sneak into the second. I think he'll end up being drafted by a good team, and will end up the best QB from this class.
5. Hundley. At this point we're going to see Hundley and Bridge vs Carden. Do you want the athletic QB who needs work in the passing game? Or the QB who is a better passer with a suspect arm in Carden. I think Hundley is the best of the bunch at this point, and like with Petty we are looking at third round and maybe second depending on teams saying screw it let's just reach for what we need here. Hundley has the measurables and a high ceiling but I do not like his tendency to drop his eyes with the pass rush. Guys who do that struggle in the NFL as it is an avalanche type tendency where they will see loaded boxes and overloaded blitzes until they get rid of the tencency. I think Hundley succeeds long term though, and like with Mannion will be solid to above average but not elite.
6. Bridge. He's gonna rise (I have seen some listing him around 6th round which is way too low) but I don't think he'll go before Hundley. Incredibly high ceiling, and he's a good example of a low risk QB with high reward capabilities which is why I see him around the 4th at the latest. I see him not doing much his first season or two but will probably come on by his third year to either win a job or establish himself as an NFL QB.
7. Prescott. The Mullen-Tebow connection is too strong for me to really consider him at this point but some team will. Like with Tebow he will either find another position or fail.
Favorite late round QB:
* Halliday. Gambler with a live arm, but who needs to improve his footwork. Looks like he needs to put on some muscle too. Could be a big riser if he can improve footwork during the college all star games because the dude can wing it.
1. Mariota. He has it all: big arm, wheels, height, the measurables are there for the scouts to go crazy projecting him along with uncanny accuracy on the move. He will likely go 1 overall and will need to adjust to the NFL game but until that point his athleticism is outstanding. Likely will start with inconsistent results unless a team with a "now" roster with the exception of QB trades up for him. I suspect the Rams will end up grading him very, very high given that he is a better-passing version of Colon Krapondick with an ability to keep his eyes downfield and throw accurately at full speed. If the Rams move up for anyone, it will be Mariota.
2. Winston. Teams are going to be terrified of him but it won't matter. That's how talented he is, and I absolutely love his tendency to challenge his teammates he is an excellent leader. 2nd QB taken, like with Mariota has all the measurables. I believe his rookie season will go pretty well but long term he will fail in the NFL because I don't think he will be dedicated enough to be a top QB in the NFL. Talent alone won't get him there and he will be the latest high end talent to demonstrate much of what determines success at that level is desire and willingness to work your butt off, study film of opponents, etc. I suspect the Rams will grade him high, but I suspect they'll get bad vibes from insider info from the Fla State coaching staff, which the best and most connected coaches are privy to.
3. Mannion. He will rise to late first or second round at the least (I have seen him listed as late as 5th round which is pretty funny to me, we'll see if I'm right). His junior year showed what he can do with better talent around him. This year the team around him struggled and he handled himself quite well throughout shouldering the whole deal as the leader. Only knock on him I have is his feet in the pocket particularly with pressure, however he comes with advantages too. Probably the most ready of all QBs to play now, dude has a lot of games played being required to pre-snap read. Long term I think he will be an average to above average QB depending on what type system he ends up in. Not elite, but he's gonna play for a long time in the NFL and he's resilient/stays healthy.
4. Petty. If he comes out I think he will be the fourth QB taken for a couple reasons: he is a very, very good passer in spite of his smaller number of snaps/games played. Also, he is athletic and dangerous on the move to defenses. In this class he's a guy you can get outside that early range that actually has a high ceiling and who is more than just a runner. Takes a lot of hits in games I watch, and it shows with the injuries which I don't like, however the dude is tough as nails and had to be pulled out of the game where he injured his back. Probably third round but may sneak into the second. I think he'll end up being drafted by a good team, and will end up the best QB from this class.
5. Hundley. At this point we're going to see Hundley and Bridge vs Carden. Do you want the athletic QB who needs work in the passing game? Or the QB who is a better passer with a suspect arm in Carden. I think Hundley is the best of the bunch at this point, and like with Petty we are looking at third round and maybe second depending on teams saying screw it let's just reach for what we need here. Hundley has the measurables and a high ceiling but I do not like his tendency to drop his eyes with the pass rush. Guys who do that struggle in the NFL as it is an avalanche type tendency where they will see loaded boxes and overloaded blitzes until they get rid of the tencency. I think Hundley succeeds long term though, and like with Mannion will be solid to above average but not elite.
6. Bridge. He's gonna rise (I have seen some listing him around 6th round which is way too low) but I don't think he'll go before Hundley. Incredibly high ceiling, and he's a good example of a low risk QB with high reward capabilities which is why I see him around the 4th at the latest. I see him not doing much his first season or two but will probably come on by his third year to either win a job or establish himself as an NFL QB.
7. Prescott. The Mullen-Tebow connection is too strong for me to really consider him at this point but some team will. Like with Tebow he will either find another position or fail.
Favorite late round QB:
* Halliday. Gambler with a live arm, but who needs to improve his footwork. Looks like he needs to put on some muscle too. Could be a big riser if he can improve footwork during the college all star games because the dude can wing it.
