Don’t Let Their Record Fool You: These Are the Same Old Rams

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I'll be emailing this article to The Ringer and the author of this article, Danny Kelly, at the end of the season along with this...

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Don’t Let Their Record Fool You: These Are the Same Old Rams
If Jeff Fisher’s team finishes 7–9 again, you can’t say we didn’t warn you
By Danny Kelly

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Remember when the Rams looked like the worst team in NFL history? In their first game since moving to Los Angeles, they got blanked, 28–0, by the Blaine Gabbert–led San Francisco 49ers, could only manage a whopping 185 yards of total offense, and saw their superstar defensive lineman, Aaron Donald, get ejected midway through the fourth quarter.

On Hard Knocks, Jeff Fisher told his players at training camp, “I’m not fucking going 7–9.” And after Week 1, it looked like he’d be lucky to lose only nine games.

Well, three weeks later, the Rams haven’t lost another game. They’ve won games against supposed Super Bowl contenders and in-division competitors Seattle and Arizona. And now they’re 3–1, two games over .500 for the first time since Week 7 of the 2006 season, tied atop the NFC West.

In the past four years, the Rams have consecutively finished 7–8–1, 7–9, 6–10, and 7–9. In those seasons, they’ve always had the combination of a bad offense and a good-not-great defense: They’ve ranked 25th, 21st, 21st, and 29th in points scored over the past four years, while finishing tied for 14th, 13th, tied for 16th, 13th in points allowed.

The efficiency stats from Football Outsiders paint the same exact picture: The Rams ranked 29th, 25th, 22nd, and 21st in offensive DVOA in Fisher’s last four seasons, while finishing seventh, ninth, 11th, and seventh in defensive DVOA. It had gotten to the point where no matter what players Fisher had on the field, the Rams were essentially going to be the same exact team every single year.

Despite their winning record, this year’s team isn’t likely to change that.

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The Rams gave the Titans two first-, two second-, and two third-round picks for the opportunity to take Jared Goff no. 1 in April’s draft. Yet, while no. 2 pick Carson Wentz has led the Eagles to an undefeated start, Goff hasn’t left the bench. Until he cracks the starting lineup, L.A.’s offense will go as far as Case Keenum will take it — and that isn’t going to be very far if he continues with a 55 percent completion rate, a 4–3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, 6.8 yards per attempt, and a 77.3 passer rating.

Through four weeks, just 22.9 percent of the Rams’ offensive drives have ended in a score (30th in the league). They’re 30th in points per game (15.8), last in yards per play (4.6), 31st in first downs (57), tied for 21st in passing touchdowns (4), and 23rd in yards per attempt (6.8).

Running back Todd Gurley is supposed to be the foundational piece of their offense, but a combination of poor reads and bad blocking from the offensive line, which ranks 27th in Football Outsiders adjusted line yards, has last season’s Rookie of the Year sitting at just 2.6 yards per rush attempt and 54 yards per game.

After the team signed Tavon Austin to a four-year, $42 million contract extension in August, Fisher clearly wanted to get him to 100-plus catches this year, but the fourth-year wideout hasn’t done his part. The speedy slot receiver has seen 36 targets — almost 30 percent of the team’s total — but has just 16 catches for 159 yards (9.9 yards per catch) and one touchdown.

In comparison, Brian Quick has turned his 14 targets into eight catches, 153 yards (19.1 yards per catch), and three touchdowns, while Kenny Britt has turned 26 targets into 18 catches for 281 yards (15.6 yards per catch). If it isn’t the league’s worst, the Rams’ passing game is certainly among them. So, if they’re going to contend for the playoffs this year, it’s going to be because of their defense.

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For the Rams to correctly emulate the model the Broncos used to win the Super Bowl — i.e., the “let’s ride our defense to the playoffs” plan — they have to be world-beaters on the defensive side of the ball. So far, they’ve been very good, but as in the previous four seasons, they haven’t been great.

If there’s one reason to expect this group to take a leap, it’s because of its improved health. The Rams finished as the seventh-ranked defense per DVOA last year despite missing cornerback E.J. Gaines (all year), defensive end Robert Quinn (eight games), linebacker Alec Ogletree (12 games), and safety T.J. McDonald (five games) for long stretches of the season.

Gaines, Quinn, Ogletree, and McDonald are all back, and because they each play a key role in L.A.’s defense, this Rams group has the potential to be better than ever.

Coming off the back surgery that sidelined him last year, Quinn is already back to consistently creating pressure on the edge, and pairing him with Aaron Donald is terrifying for opposing offensive lines. Through four games, Donald has 25 pressures and his 13.4 pressure percentage (pressures divided by rushes) is best in the league per Pro Football Focus. That’s impressive in and of itself, but it’s even more ridiculous when you remember that he’s an inside rusher and not a defensive end.

At his current rate, Donald would finish with 100 pressures, 21 more than the 79 he finished with last season. He’s absurdly good, and having a healthy Quinn next to him means that only one of them is getting double-teamed. And if any team is dumb enough to not double-team either of them, then it’s curtains for quarterbacks.

Take this play from last week. On a key Arizona third-and-8 midway through the second quarter, the combined pressure that Quinn and Donald brought from the right and up the middle forced Carson Palmer to get rid of the ball too quickly. Since the timing was off, Chris Johnson turned his head too late, and the drive was dead.

View: https://cdn-e1.streamable.com/video/mp4-mobile/3elm.mp4?token=1476890130_f4ae58eea42c1b45fa6a7175b98120a62889b261

Donald can pretty much do it on his own, too. Early in the third quarter, he beat D.J. Humphries with a great swim move, sacked Palmer, and forced a fumble that the Rams recovered.

View: https://cdn-e1.streamable.com/video/mp4-mobile/hk1x.mp4?token=1476890123_43784d0801e82bd8c1d295ef199a247178286cbc

When the Rams aren’t getting pressure from Donald, they do a good job of manufacturing it by sending a corner, safety, or linebacker in to try to overwhelm the line. In the first quarter, defensive coordinator Gregg Williams sent safety Maurice Alexander off the edge, and he beat Johnson’s pickup to sack Palmer.

View: https://cdn-e1.streamable.com/video/mp4-mobile/1ti3.mp4?token=1476890053_d704cb85e7d58bb7ae5b6feee301ca8ddeee6cac

In the second quarter, Williams dialed up a blitz that saw nickelback LaMarcus Joyner rush off the edge and Ogletree rush through the B gap. The pressure they created forced Palmer to throw quickly, and cornerback Trumaine Johnson almost picked it off.

View: https://cdn-e1.streamable.com/video/mp4-mobile/846h.mp4?token=1476890752_8d4c487f395818570e913f79afe63512baa0226c

Through four games, Johnson has shown why the Rams franchise-tagged him back in March. Against Arizona, he was targeted 12 times, gave up just five catches, and had six pass breakups and an interception.

View: https://cdn-e1.streamable.com/video/mp4-mobile/kozi.mp4?token=1476890747_6724525c6ec67eeacfb1df730d8c7e01904ca588

While the Rams have an excellent, disruptive pass rush and have racked up nine takeaways (tied for third in the league), most key defensive stats paint the picture of a “good” defense, not an elite unit that can carry their offense to the promised land. L.A. ranks ninth in opponent points per game (19) and 10th in yards per play (5.1). They’re surrendering 3.7 yards per carry (11th) and 6.6 yards per attempt (8th). They’ve allowed four rushing touchdowns (tied for 20th) and five passing scores (tied for 11th). And they rank 12th in defensive DVOA.

To improve, they need to get more consistent tackling from their linebacking corps and play a little more disciplined in their run gaps, and between Troy Hill, Coty Sensabaugh, and Gaines, they have to iron out the rotations among their cornerbacks that play opposite Johnson.

Those big in-division wins over the Seahawks and Cardinals are certainly impressive, but as the saying goes, those who cannot remember the past are condemned to 7–9 seasons for eternity. Under Fisher, the Rams are 13–13–1 in NFC West games and 17–24 against everyone else.

They’re no stranger to surprising wins, either. They beat Seattle twice and won in Arizona last year, but ended up winning just seven games. They beat the Seahawks and Broncos in 2014, but won just six games. To their fans’ everlasting chagrin, those “statement” games tended to be followed by duds.

Considering all that, it should take more than two division wins and a comeback victory over the Bucs to convince anyone that the Rams are for real. While they sit at 3–1, they have been outscored by 13 points. They’re still just 29th in ESPN’s Football Power Index and rank 24th in Football Outsiders DVOA. The offense is a mess, and the current improvements on defense won’t be enough to mask just how bad they are on the other side of the ball over the course of a 16-game season.

The Rams are the perfect example of why you shouldn’t trust what happens in Week 1. But they’re a pretty good example for why you shouldn’t trust what happens in weeks 2 through 4 either.
 

MTRamsFan

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HA HA HA HA HA HA! Who'd of guessed this turd is a "journalist," and I use the term very very loosely, from Seattle. I guess it's time to "bomb" him on Twitter.
 

Legatron4

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What a fucking baboon. Anyone with half a brain can see this offense is struggling. But what people tend to forget is we were about to 2 touchdowns and a field goal from being 11-5 last year. And guess what? We're not the first team to do well with a struggling offense. They've scored when it matters and should have been inside the 10 yard line two times on Sunday. But the plays were wiped away by penalties. We could have scored and won 31-13 and everyone would think we were a powerhouse.

This young team is finally learning how to win and now we have momentum. Who gives a flying fuck if we don't have a top 10 offense. Plus, Gurley hasn't even gotten going yet. When that happens look the fuck out.
 

gabriel18

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I never saw such bad press for a 3-1 team that has finally found a way to win close games . We all know the offense is having its troubles, but give it a rest .
 

Loyal

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I didn't wait, I blasted this jerk via twitter...
 

BonifayRam

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I take a swipe at this ..... Rams has gone into the season without our #2 corner we used a WWC Troy Hill & a ex Titan Coty Sensabaugh as starters...now Gaines has returned to full starting duties & had a very good non start in AZ. Moving first yr corner Hill back into the 3rd corner with Coty back to 4th corner is very positive improvement going into week 5. So this writers statement "they have to iron out the rotations among their cornerbacks that play opposite Johnson" is Mute! Its ironed flat out!

Writer says "need to get more consistent tackling from their linebacking corps and play a little more disciplined in their run gaps". Our defenders who play the LB'er roles....Mark Barron, Alec Ogletree & Lamarcus Joyner play all over the field, up on the LOS or back deep in our zones no NFL team has 3 more better Range Rovers than these 3 plus they are undersized as a LB'er cadre but so talented. Yes they do fail from time to time to be in position to make the tackle but the confusion they create for the QB is seriously under mentioned & not discussed. Left OSLB'er Joyner is dealing with a broken toe & elbow injuries but still gets on the field & I am sure we will see more of our 4th Lb'er rookie OLB Josh Forrest against the Bills early & Josh giving way to Joyner more often in the 2nd half if we get up on the Bills.

The DL had Matt Longacre join the starters for the first time & continued where he left off in pre season with making plays as a reserve. Both Sims & Donald are coming off their best game of this early season where we saw Gregg moving Sims inside & Donald to the edge a old & new wrinkle here. Sims does well inside & AD is just as quick around the edge too. Dom Easley was real sick all last week & will have that behind him, he knows Rex Ryan very well from his Pats yrs & he plays well against him.

The OL will go into their 5th game with the same starting OL. Our QB has slowly but surely getting better with every game he starts. His QB rating has improved with each week this season. Case only started 5 games for us late last season & this week will be his 10th as the Rams starter. By the way he is 6-3 & keeps on going.............Gurley is a ticking time bomb no team wants to plays us with this pending nuclear A bomb fuse getting close. Rams will now have 2 rookie WR's to add to the main 3 ready to go this week.

This offense will the healthiest since the beginning of the season with these new weapons. The only injured Rams starter on defense is Wm Hayes but Longacre, Westbrooks & Sims are as good as there is in the NFL as reserve back up DE's. Looks like TJ McDonald tried out his new refurbished shoulder last week I would look to see a few more of those type hits on the scrambling/running QB Bills Tyrod Taylor.

This 5th wk Ram team sure appears to field a better team this Sunday. I see no decline or degrading trending here on the Rams but I see the opposite. Tell me where I am wrong?
 
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DaveFan'51

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Considering all that, it should take more than two division wins and a comeback victory over the Bucs to convince anyone that the Rams are for real. While they sit at 3–1, they have been outscored by 13 points. They’re still just 29th in ESPN’s Football Power Index
This^ And yet ESPN has the Rams Team, OVER-ALL, Ranked 6th in the League!!!(y):confused::LOL:
 

HitStick

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That first game brings down our rankings on both sides of the ball. If the Rams played that game as well as the others, we'd be undefeated, but also ranking high (on defense at least).

I hope all these journalists are ready to admit they were wrong by seasons end.
 

Jorgeh0605

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I don't understand why you guys are getting bent out of shape. He is only saying what we all already know. History has shown us that the Rams are really really good at slipping back into mediocrity. As fans we all hope that this is the year we breakout, but less biased and more cynical minds would point to past seasons and ask whats different?

And the only answer we can give is our 3-1 record and hope it continues. I personally disagree with the fellow, but I don't hate him for having a perfectly rational opinion on our team. I actually kind of prefer to be looked at as underdogs.
 

dieterbrock

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I don't understand why you guys are getting bent out of shape. He is only saying what we all already know. History has shown us that the Rams are really really good at slipping back into mediocrity. As fans we all hope that this is the year we breakout, but less biased and more cynical minds would point to past seasons and ask whats different?

And the only answer we can give is our 3-1 record and hope it continues. I personally disagree with the fellow, but I don't hate him for having a perfectly rational opinion on our team. I actually kind of prefer to be looked at as underdogs.
I was wondering if anyone was going to take a swipe at saying that he's not really incorrect. I couldn't figure a diplomatic way as well as you have stated.
Go Rams, continue to prove this chap wrong! (Danny Kelly not Jorgeh0605)
 

Faceplant

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I am loving the Rams 3-1 start as much as anyone, but yeah...I can see why someone would write this. It's called our history of inconsistency. What scares me is that this season, thus far, kinda reminds me of the Rams first season in the Lou...in case anyone remembers that.
 

Legatron4

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I am loving the Rams 3-1 start as much as anyone, but yeah...I can see why someone would write this. It's called our history of inconsistency. What scares me is that this season, thus far, kinda reminds me of the Rams first season in the Lou...in case anyone remembers that.
Started off 5-1, ended 7-9?
 

Loyal

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I don't understand why you guys are getting bent out of shape. He is only saying what we all already know. History has shown us that the Rams are really really good at slipping back into mediocrity. As fans we all hope that this is the year we breakout, but less biased and more cynical minds would point to past seasons and ask whats different?

And the only answer we can give is our 3-1 record and hope it continues. I personally disagree with the fellow, but I don't hate him for having a perfectly rational opinion on our team. I actually kind of prefer to be looked at as underdogs.

What's different?
1. Yes, the 3-1 record is the most obvious.
2. We beat Seattle, who is ranked in the Top 5 right now in most Power Rankings.
3. In the recent past we have "slipped down into mediocrity" after such a huge win, especially when playing in the next game, a non division opponent with an ascending QB like Jameis Winston.
4. We beat Tampa on the Road after the Hawk win, which is different.
5. We beat a preseason Super Bowl contender in their house, two games won on the road consecutively,. Sure we beat them last year in Phoenix, but the record versus them in the Arien's regime is horrendous. Two wins at their stadium in the last two years, is different.
6. We are on a 3 game winning streak, the first time since 2006, which is different.
7. Playing before 91,000 fans for home games, is potentially a huge advantage in disrupting the Bills Offense. No fault to St Louis, but the product on the field the last decade has been bad, and the crowds at the dome sometimes seemed to be an away game with all of the visiting fans at the Ed....This is different.

The real truth is that this guy got burned by predicting the Rams would win in years past, and now he will hate on the team until our results shove his cynicism right down his Seahawk loving throat!
 
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LARams_1963

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While of course I just want the Rams to win. I REALLY hope they do so all these Fucktards can eat shit at the end of the year.
 

yrba1

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Until the Rams go above .500 by season's end, can't blame the journalists for the shitty headline. I personally still stand by Fisher getting fired by the end of season unless he has a winning record this year and next. He best prove that he's a consistent HC if he wants to convince me that he can take it another level
 

Merlin

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Why they're not the same old Rams:

1. Depth and competition. There are a lot of guys in key positions who know the Rams have options right behind them to take their jobs. Players are people and prone to laziness, but they're also competitors at this level and that competition has been proven to bring out their best. Case is not going to go out there and wing the ball around like Fitz is doing in NY, and why? Because he won't be the QB if he does that and he knows it.

2. New veteran leadership. Donald's leadership is showing in their toughness and resilience no matter the situation on defense. Add Ogletree to that too, dude has grown into a tenacious leader for us and his effect in challenging his teammates there on the field is visible. Offensively Keenum has given them a scrappy attitude, and Gurley is hungry as F and does not accept less than excellence.

Read THIS article and tell me this is the same team. Those who are making that assumption are going to be proven wrong. The vets got together after that SF disaster and said "no more" and they meant it. They have taken the next step IMO.

3. Health. This is the first time in many years that we have not (knock on wood) suffered a ridiculous stretch of injuries. It's part of life in the NFL and the truth is teams that can get through the injuries or get lucky enough not to be debilitated by them are the teams that win games and get into the playoffs.

4. Return of Gaines. The impact of a good CB on a defense is profound, and even moreso if your DC is a multiple looks and blitz package guy like Williams is. Our defense weathered his setback with depth and now that he's back our secondary looks excellent. I expect a strong run from our defense here to keep this team on track.