Cosell: The phrase "he's a winner" has almost no meaning.

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Recently on my weekly Thursday morning appearance with Ross Tucker on “The Morning Kickoff” on Sirius XM radio, Tucker raised an interesting point on Tom Brady, who is now heading into his 13th season in New England.

Tucker broke down Brady’s career into two separate parts:

1. Brady’s first five years as a starter. (He threw a grand total of three passes in his rookie season of 2000.)
2. Brady’s last five years — not including 2008, when he tore his ACL in the opening game of the season.

The CliffsNotes version of Tucker’s take is this: Brady has been a far better player over the last five years, yet he won all three of his Super Bowls in the first five.

I agree with Tucker. In fact, I don’t think the former statement is debatable at all. Yet, for those who believe that playoff success and Super Bowl championships are the best measuring stick of quarterback greatness, it’s a bit of an intellectual challenge.

Brady won his first 10 playoff games, including, of course, those three championships. And he only threw three interceptions in the process. Since then, he’s 6-6 in the playoffs with two Super Bowl losses. In those 12 games, he’s thrown 17 interceptions.

Consequently, we’re left with a pair of much larger questions about quarterback evaluation and judgment: Is Brady, celebrated as one of the great “winners” of all time after his third championship in 2004, no longer a winner? How does one reconcile Brady’s clear improvement over the last five years with his inability to replicate the phenomenal playoff success he enjoyed in his first five?

None of this is meant to disparage Brady, who is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. Rather, it is designed to focus on a phrase that has become a big part of football lexicon over the years …

“He’s a winner.”

What exactly does that mean? Is it simply an “access to the result” verdict, without much thought given to the process?

Again, let’s relate it to Brady. Think back to his first Super Bowl victory against the St. Louis Rams. New England won that game with an Adam Vinatieri field goal on the final play. Two years later, Vinatieri essentially did the same thing against the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII. For the sake of discussion, let’s say Vinatieri missed both of those kicks (each was more than 40 yards). Then the Rams and the Panthers, respectively, won the toss in overtime and the Patriots never got the ball back. Would Brady’s performance have been any less impressive in those games? Obviously not. What would be different is our collective perception of his performance. He would not have been acclaimed a “winner.”

How about last season’s AFC Championship Game? Joe Flacco made one of the best throws you’ll ever see in a critical, game-deciding situation: 27 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, the Baltimore Ravens trailing Brady’s Patriots by three. We can debate forever whether it was a drop by Lee Evans or a great defensive play by Sterling Moore. That’s irrelevant. It was as good a throw as you will ever see in a pressure moment. It was reminiscent of Ben Roethlisberger’s touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes to win Super Bowl XLIII. The outcome of the game — two plays later, Billy Cundiff missed a 32-yard field goal — was not, in any way, a reflection of Flacco’s performance. You could easily argue that Flacco was brilliant on that final drive. The result did not change the process, only the perception of the process. How different would the public perception of Flacco be today if he was a Super Bowl quarterback? Would he be viewed as a “winner?”

I remember Peyton Manning talking about the winning touchdown drive in the AFC Championship Game against the Patriots back in 2007 when we interviewed him for our “America’s Game” series. To paraphrase, Manning said it was a great series of plays, executed extremely well in a very trying and tense circumstance (with the Super Bowl at stake). He then went on to add that if Brady had followed with a Patriots touchdown in the final 54 seconds, no one would have remembered the Colts drive, as special as it was in Manning’s mind. His outstanding play would have been viewed through the prism of “he’s not a winner.” His performance would not have been any different. Again, perception without context and understanding.

In 2011, one quarterback in particular fostered blind obedience by many observers to the phrase “he’s winner” without much thought as to why it was being said. Tim Tebow won seven of his first eight starts, a number of them in spectacular fashion with late-game heroics. Of course, Matt Prater made two 50-plus yard overtime field goals to defeat the Dolphins and Bears (and the Chicago win also featured a 59-yarder with eight seconds remaining in regulation).

Then came four losses in his last five games, during which Tebow, with the exception of the playoff win against Pittsburgh, played about as poorly as an NFL quarterback can play. In those four losses, he completed 39 percent of his passes. So the question must be asked: Was Tebow a “winner” in some games, but not others? Did he not practice “winning” in the weeks leading up to those four losses?

Let’s not focus on the specific quarterbacks I used as examples. If you do that, you are totally missing the point. My broader objective is to compel a re-thinking of the “winner” concept. When you drill down deeper, it’s really a term that has almost no meaning.
 

jrry32

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Re: Cosell: The phrase "he's a winner" has almost no meaning

He's right to a degree. I think there is a winner mentality that you need to be a great player and some guys don't have it. But for the most part, starting QBs in the NFL have it. The "choker" and "clutch" labels have always seemed like a complete joke to me.

Peyton Manning is the guy pointed to as a choker and yet he's one of the best in the NFL when it comes to crunch time in the regular season late in games. But people always say...but he chokes in the playoffs. It's an interesting point...how do you define a choke?

For example, if Manning throws an interception in OT and the team loses...is that a choke? Some would say yes. But on the flip side, what happens if prior to that int in OT...Manning had thrown 3 TDs during regulation and his team had a 7 point lead in the last minute and his defense allowed what is essentially a hail mary TD...is it still a choke on Manning? Is it the entire team choking? Did Manning play well enough to win that game in regulation? If so, how was it a choke of a performance?

I've always found it quite humorous because I've gone back and actually shown that in 4 or 5 of Manning's supposed playoff chokes BEFORE THIS YEAR that the Colts could have actually won or tied the game in the late 4th quarter/OT but their kicker and defense messed up and they lost. How much blame should Manning get? Yea, one could argue that he should have scored a TD to put them ahead by more or done more in the 4th quarter...but at the same time, is it fair to argue a choke or blame the QB when other parts of the team fail? Would it have been fair to blame Brady if the Patriots lost both those Super Bowls that Cosell referenced because of Vinatieri's errors?

It's certainly an interesting question.

And getting back to the point, look at Sam. Prior to 2012, everyone claimed that he didn't have the mysterious "it" factor or "clutch" factor. He couldn't lead his team back late in games...they claimed that he never could do it back at Oklahoma and it was one part of his game that was never going to improve.

All of sudden, Bradford is one of the best in the league in 2012 in close games in the 4th quarter and brought his team back with "clutch" drives to tie, go ahead or win on numerous occasions.

Where did it come from? Because he supposedly didn't have it in him. Look at early on in Eli's career...he was considered anti-clutch.

It's why I don't believe there's a clutch gene. I think it's all about poise and remaining calm under pressure. For guys who are known as not clutch...like Tony Romo...I don't think it's a lack of a clutch gene. I think it's the case of a QB thinking the game is all on his back and trying to do too much.

That's what has plagued Manning throughout his career. He tries to do too much because he feels like if he doesn't carry the team, they'll lose. That's what separated pre 2007 Brady to 2007 and post 2007 Brady. Brady had that defense and special teams to fall back on. He didn't feel like he had to go out there, carry the team and win the game. He played within himself, made smart decisions and didn't take unnecessary risks. It worked out because they had the talent on the rest of the team to win that way. IMO, that's the best way to build a sustainable contender.

The difference is lately that they don't have a defense that can be relied on. Which puts the pressure on Brady and forces him to do more to carry the team which opens him up to more mistakes and if he can't carry them...they often lose.

That's what plagued Manning. If he had an off game, the Colts lose. Even if he has a good game, they still sometimes lost in the playoffs. Brady never had that issue when he was a "winner" and "clutch".

It's no coincidence that the Colts won the Super Bowl with Manning the one year that their defense was good enough to "carry him" through a couple bad performances. It's quite telling actually.

Basically, the gist here is that QBs get too much credit and too much blame. It's a team game and generally the best way to build a sustainable and consistent contender is to get a very good or great QB and build a balanced team around him.

But like I said, there are QBs who play better in crunch time or "clutch" situations than others but imo that's not a clutch gene or anything, it's all mind-set and their personality.
 

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Re: Cosell: The phrase "he's a winner" has almost no meaning

Good post, jrry. It's when you illuminate different aspects of a game that the whole "winner" and "clutch" labels begin to break down. Bradford's a pretty good example of that, and we can use a few games this past year to illustrate it.

Against the Lions he had two consecutive drives to tie the game, and then get the team in position to go ahead with a FG, only to watch the Lions march 80 yards in less than 2 minutes to take the lead, giving the offense but a handful of seconds to come back and win (again). So say instead of that happening, the defense picks off Stafford (again), and the game is over? Bradford's a winner now instead of a guy who can't close out a game?

What if Brandon Gibson doesn't line up improperly and Amendola's 80 yard reception culminates in a game-winning TD or FG? Is Bradford now a winner? Or did his clutchness go away due to a penalty that negated the drive? At the same time, what if Hekker doesn't convert on those fakes? Bradford gets the loss, or he gets the win, because of solid special teams play. None of it is accurate.

What if Zeurlein doesn't miss 2 makeable field goals (the third was 66 yards out) against the Dolphins? Bradford had well over 300 yards passing, no ints, and a rushing TD, and they lost by 3. What if in that same game, Jenkins doesn't have brain freeze and the Dolphins don't score one of their TDs? That game could have easily gone the Rams' way. Instead, it's another loss on Bradford. That's dumb to pin a loss on a QB anyway, but it's done with regularity despite that.

Against Minnesota the guy had 377 yards passing and 3 TD's, but they still lost. Christian Ponder went 17 of 24 for 131, and he's the winner? Has to be. He gets "credit" for it in the ever popular QB-win-total. What if Peterson doesn't rush for 212 yards? Conversely, what if Steven Jackson DOES? It's articles and discussions like these that should be taking place more often. Not because it provides more excuses for Bradford, but because it gives credit (and fault) to other members of the starting 46.

Kurt Warner was a play away from losing his only Superbowl win (Bruce's sick adjustment). Would that make him a choker if he never got a ring? Is Dan Marino a choker? What about Fran Tarkenton? Ran his little ass off all season, made it to three Superbowls, won zero. Choker? Jim Kelly? Goose eggs. is Doug Williams a winner? Trent Dilfer? Hostetler? McMahon? Rypien? Johnson? Or could it be that their teams were pretty good teams? What if Archie Manning was on the Cowboys in the 70's instead of the Saints?

What if Staubach was on the Saints instead of the Cowboys?
 

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Re: Cosell: The phrase "he's a winner" has almost no meaning

it all comes down to talent, then attitude. Neither one is any good without the other. Then being a "Winner" comes down to timing and having more players with talent and attitude than the other team. The way the ball bounces always has to be given consideration.

I could say safely say, Dan Marino is the best QB of all time, how many SB wins? It's a team game, moreso than perhaps any other sport.
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