Closer look at draft position...

[max]

This is my detailed approach at breaking down our draft position for 2014. I think I've covered all the bases as outlined below. I start with the simplest ones and end with the most complex, but it all boils down nicely to no worse than #3 overall, most likely #2, with an outside shot at #1.

If the Skins lose we draft #2, unless Houston beats Tenn, then we draft #1.

If the Skins win we can either end up at #2 or #3. If the Jags win also, then we get #2 anyway. But if the Jags lose, then it gets a bit tricky. And I used a spreadsheet to break it all down as follows...

After running through all the possibilities, and understanding that the only team that can take the #2 overall spot from us is the Jags, I have found that only 4 games can impact our draft position.

The spreadsheet below shows a likely worse case scenario with the Jags getting #2 and us getting #3 because of the SOS. That is, the Jags have SOS opponents wins of 129, the Skins have 130. This would result if the week 17 games turned out as I listed them. As stated, only 4 games matter. Those are Bill-Pats, Browns-Steelers, Cards-Niners, and Falcons-Panthers. And I don't think there is much chance for the Pats and Panthers to lose, so what we need is for the Browns and Cards to win.

In summary, if the Skins win and the Jags win, then we get #2. If the Skins win and the Jags lose, then we need both the Browns and Cards to win to lock up #2 overall. If only one of them wins, then we flip a coin with the Jags. If they both lose, then we get #3.

 

[V3]

1.) Go Houston!!!!

if not...

2.) Go Jags!!!!

 

[A55VA6]

It's amazing that we could get the 1st pick. lol perfect.

 

[-X-]

Excellent work with the tables once again, Maximus.

 

[Alan]

I can't read any of that but I'm sure it was a great job max. All I know for sure is that the Texans have to win.

 

[RamsOfCastamere]

I can't read any of that but I'm sure it was a great job max. All I know for sure is that the Texans have to win.

If you have a PC, press CTRL + + (CTRL and + at the same time). CTRL + - (zooms out). Amazing, right? :bigup:

 

[Rams and Gators]

That's exactly the results I came up with doing the results independently. Basically the Bills and Browns need a better combined week 17 record than the 49ers and Falcons, which is what you said.

Using a formula created by profootballreference.com I put the probability of each pick at:
1 19%
2 67%
3 14%

 

[Faceplant]

I have faith in the ability of the Skins to shizzle the bed.....again.

 

[-X-]

I have faith in the ability of the Skins to shizzle the bed.....again.

Fo rizzle.

 

[Rams and Gators]

I have faith in the ability of the Skins to shizzle the bed.....again.

They've come through for us all season, I don't see why they'd stop now.

 

[Alan]

RamsOfCastamere with a helpful tip:
If you have a PC, press CTRL + + (CTRL and + at the same time). CTRL + - (zooms out). Amazing, right? :bigup:

Thanks bud! Works great and it's easy to do. :woot:

It doesn't help much in this instance because of all the lines but it helps me to read all the other posts.

Never too old to learn. Hard to believe there was room for improvement but even those those two floppies look better.:lol:

Thanks again!

 

[max]

Here's all you need to know...

Realistically, all 5 of these things have to happen for the Rams to lose the #2 spot...
Wash must win
Jags must lose
Niners must beat Cards
Steelers must beat Browns
Titans must beat Texans

This assumes Panthers beat Falcons, and Pats beat Bills, which is much expected.

Anyway, those 5 games above are highly unlikely to all go against us.

My view is that the Cards will beat the Niners in AZ next week, I think the Cards are playing better than the Niners right now and the Niners are coming off MNF. And if Cards win and finish 11-5 it would be a travesty that they don't make the playoffs.

 

[RamzFanz]

....and the ONLY teams that can possibly get the number one spot are Texans or Rams.

 

[BigRamFan]

Here's all you need to know...

Realistically, all 5 of these things have to happen for the Rans to lose the #2 spot...
Wash must win
Jags must lose
Niners must beat Cards
Steelers must beat Browns
Titans must beat Texans

This assumes Panthers beat Falcons, and Pats beat Bills, which is much expected.

Anyway, those 5 games above are highly unlikely to all go against us.

My view is that the Cards will beat the Niners in AZ next week, I think the Cards are playing better than the Niners right now and the Niners are coming off MNF. And if Cards win and finish 11-5 it would be a travesty that they don't make the playoffs.

Max - I know you put a lot of effort into that spreadsheet and I fully accept your findings. However, if WAS wins I don't see the next 4 requirements as being all that unlikely.

 

[Thordaddy]

My hat is off to ya max you do work I'm too lazy to read

 

[jap]

It's amazing that we could get the 1st pick. lol perfect.

That's all from the generosity of Danny Boy's Boys. :lol:

 

[max]

Max - I know you put a lot of effort into that spreadsheet and I fully accept your findings. However, if WAS wins I don't see the next 4 requirements as being all that unlikely.

Any one of them is quite likely, but when you put them all together in a parlay, you'd be surprised at how unlikely it is.

 

[Rabid Ram]

So wonder what Fisher will say about picking second overall after all her said it would never happen again lmao

 

[jap]

So wonder what Fisher will say about picking second overall after all her said it would never happen again lmao

He will say, "I was talking about our original pick, naturally. You can't hold me responsible for Danny Boy's stupidity, can you?" :nau:

 

[BigRamFan]

Any one of them is quite likely, but when you put them all together in a parlay, you'd be surprised at how unlikely it is.

Oh, I get that the statistical probability is very low; I've lost a few parlays in my time. :wink:
But looking at each of those matchups I think the ONE that is most favorable for our needs is for WAS to lose. All of the others, at least at face value, appear to be leaning the other direction.