Champs vs Chumps: Niners review

[TexasRam]

Look out for the the 49ers!! They are a serious force to challenge the Rams in the NFC West in 2018!! Jimmy G is the real deal!! This is the narrative we are being given.

Even Vegas now has the 49ers at 14/1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Better odds to win it then the Saints or Jaguars!

But are the Niners really a threat to the Rams ?
Did the Niners quietly build a powerful roster while everyone wrote them off in 2017?

Did the Niners addition of Jimmy G give them the final cog to compete with the 4 Powerhouses of the NFC: The Rams, Eagles Vikings and Saints?

We know the Rams are reigning Division Champs and had the highest scoring offense in the NFL in only 15 games.

We know the Rams added a slew of Pro Bowlers in the offseason in Suh, Peters, Talib, Shields and Cooks.

But could it be the Niners have also built a powerful roster and are ready to go toe to toe with this even more stacked Rams team?

Let's check their roster and see.....

Below I will detail every player on the Rams and Niners and answer the burning question we all want to know. Are the Niners ready to go Toe to Toe with the Champs?

Scoring Criteria
You may not be a fan of PFF and while it can be shown that they have Major Bias and flaws on certain players and scoring criteria, they do provide a baseline for conversation. And when I compare their scores for my own Rams player grades they are mostly accurate with a few exceptions to scores that I note below as “adjusted”.

Since they are “mostly” accurate for Rams players I will take them at their word for Niners players and list those Niner scores below since honestly I don’t review Niner film like I do Ram film.

Roster Score Summary:
Rams offense: 83.4
Rams defense:83.0

Niners offense:74.3
Niners defense:70.2



Individual grades and Unit averages:

Rams

Skill positions: 86.4
Goff 86.6 (Adjusted)
Gurley. 92
Cooks 83.1. (Adjusted)
Kupp 87.2. (Adjusted)
Woods 83.2

Oline average: 80.4
Whitworth 87.9. (adjusted)
Saffold 84.6
Sullivan 74.6
Brown 77.1 (adjusted)
Havenstein 77.9

Dline average: 91.3
Donald 99.7
Suh 91.0
Brockers 83.1

LB average: 71.3
Ebukam 70.0
Barron 71.2
Hager 71.4
Longacre 73.8

DB average: 86.52
Peters 85.7
Talib 86.2
NRC 84.9
Johnson 85.8
Joyner 90.


49ers

Skill positions: 80.7
Jimmy 85.2
McKinnon 84.6
Garçon 82.5
Goodwin 80
Taylor 71.6

Oline average: 70.8
Staley 87.4
Tomlinson 70.7
Richburg 71.3
Garnett 45.7
Brown 79.3

Dline average: 69.8
Buckner 90.4
Thomas 53.2
Armstead 78.9
Mitchell 56.8

Lb average: 65.5
Foster 90.2 (possible suspension)
Harold 47.7
Smith 58.6

DB average: 75.3
Witherspoon 81.1
Sherman 82.7 (injury)
Williams 80.2
Tartt 85.8
Ward 46.9

49ers Observation:
One of the issues facing the Niners that is bringing their scores down is their drafting has been subpar. Solomon Thomas, Jimmie Ward, Armstead, Garnett. Lots of first round disappointment.

Summary:
There is a huge difference in talent between the 2018 Rams and 49ers. Barring Major injuries to the Rams, the games shouldn't be close. The 49ers still have glaring holes at safety, two linebacker spots, two Dline positions, both guard positions and depth at WR. There are also huge expectations put on QB and RB that might be a little more hopeful than reality. The Rams LB unit is the only unit that scores average, otherwise they are strong in all facets of the team, but the Rams depth at OT needs to be addressed.

 

[Faceplant]

Coaching has to be a major consideration as well. Tough to put a metric on that though. Thanks for the write up. Curious how you adjusted the Rams players.

 

[bubbaramfan]

Vegas odds are set to make money, not reflect how good a team actually is. Vegas is going to make a bundle on all the idiots who really think the 48ers are going to make a playoff run.

 

[OldSchool]

Vegas odds are set to make money, not reflect how good a team actually is. Vegas is going to make a bundle on all the idiots who really think the 48ers are going to make a playoff run.

There's a reason my state has no state income tax

 

[hotanez]

What are the adjusted scores? where they adjusted by the op?

 

[Rabid Ram]

What are the adjusted scores? where they adjusted by the op?

Read the entire peice it's explained within. However to the op it would be nice to see how you adjusted not just that you did.

 

[hotanez]

Read the entire peice it's explained within. However to the op it would be nice to see how you adjusted not just that you did.

Actually it explains that they were adjusted but not how. I don't understand how he adjusts our players but not the niners players, that a little bias don't you think?

 

[TexasRam]

The adjustments that I made were based on my personal scores that I used while carefully reviewing every Ram game during the season.

I made adjustment to 5 players. Goff because PFF has a strong bias towards
Him. He’s been graded average in games where he had near perfect pass days. His 100 QB rating at a score of
81 shows their bias. I used comps such as Matt Ryan to come up with Goff’s Adjusted score. Placing him in Ryan’s 86 score category. Even though Goff had a way better year by any statistical measure.

Brown, Whitworth and Kupp were adjusted based on my cumulative scores
from each game this year.

Cooks score was based on his statistical efficiency in targets to production vs league comps Mike Evans and AJ Green.

I stated I wouldn’t change any Niner scores even though in some cases their scores are bloated. Look at Sherman or Jimmy G or McKinnon, those grades are projection rather than reality.

Consider this for example of PFF bias:

Jimmy 7 TD 5 int Pff rating 84
Goff 28 TD 7 int. Pff rating 81