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http://insider.espn.com/nfl/insider...son-moves-every-nfc-team-2017-nfl-free-agency
Each NFL team's offseason is filled with small moves and marginal personnel decisions. Sometimes, that series of small moves will build a winner. But a big, bold move can help dramatically -- by improving talent at an important position or changing the overall direction of the franchise.
This week, we'll be suggesting a bold move for each team. Some of these are realistic; others are more far-fetched, but each would provide a significant change and improve a team's chances of winning future Super Bowls.
As a reminder, Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here and will be referenced below.
AFC article published here.
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Keep quarterback Tony Romo
With QB Dak Prescott leading the team to 13 wins and a No. 1 seed in his first season, why should the Cowboys keep Romo (and his $24.7 million cap number) in Dallas? Here's one reason: Connor Cook. Here's another: Matt Moore. And a third: Brock Osweiler. When Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill and Tom Savage went down with injuries for the Raiders, Dolphins and Texans, a quarter of the teams in the 2016 playoffs were realistically eliminated before the postseason even began. With Romo on the roster, the Cowboys would still be playoff contenders even if injury were to strike Prescott in his second season.
So the question is not really if the Cowboys should keep Romo, but whether how such a move might be financially feasible. According to OverTheCap.com, the Cowboys have a league-low $4.2 million in cap space. Romo has the biggest 2017 cap hit on the team at $24.7 million. Cutting or trading him now would save the Cowboys more than $5 million in cap space; cutting him after June 1 would save them $14 million.
But while Romo would be cartoonishly overpaid as a backup, the Cowboys might be able to afford it because Prescott is cartoonishly underpaid as a starter. Between Romo, Prescott and Jameill Showers, the Cowboys have a total of $25.8 million in 2017 cap space devoted to the quarterback position. That's a lot, but it's not quite the most in the league -- the Cardinals have $28.3 million devoted to their two quarterbacks, Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton. Keeping Romo might stop the Cowboys from spending big money in free agency, but this team won 13 games last season -- it's not as though they have a lot of holes to fill. -- Vincent Verhei
New York Giants
Trade for offensive tackle Joe Thomas
On the surface, it looks like the troubles in the Giants' offense last season had little to do with pass protection. They were second in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, which accounts for factors such as down, distance and opponent strength. And according to Sports Info Solutions charting, the Giants had one of the 10 lowest rates of offensive pass pressure in the league.
What those numbers don't show, however, is that Eli Manning was rarely given time in the pocket to look for big passing plays down the field. Fifty-four percent of his passes were thrown to receivers within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, the highest rate of his career, and he averaged just 10.7 yards per completion, the lowest rate of his career.
Enter Thomas, the Cleveland offensive tackle who has made 10 Pro Bowls and six All-Pro teams in his career. With the Browns coming off a one-win season and looking to build for the future, it only makes sense that they would at least listen to offers for Thomas, who will turn 33 during the season. The Giants have the 23rd pick in six of the draft's seven rounds (they will pick 34th in Round 4), which should give them some options in putting a deal together. If they can't work anything out with Cleveland, they also could look to the Bay Area, where Joe Staley is in a similar situation: a talented veteran tackle on a rebuilding team.
Either of these trades would make the Giants better at left tackle while also letting Ereck Flowers move to right tackle, effectively improving at two positions and hopefully bringing the long ball back to New York. -- Vincent Verhei
Philadelphia Eagles
Trade up in the draft for a top wide receiver
Things could change dramatically after the combine, but right now it appears that two wide receivers are head and shoulders above the rest in this draft class: Clemson's Mike Williams and Western Michigan's Corey Davis. Scouts Inc. has both wideouts among the top 15 players in the draft, with no other receivers making the top 30. Landing either one would be a coup for the Eagles, who would love to find a real outside No. 1 receiver instead of trying to use Jordan Matthews in that role.
The Eagles have moved up and down this draft as a result of the Carson Wentz and Sam Bradford trades, but right now they have the No. 15 pick in the first round. If they're lucky, one or both of those receivers will fall to that spot, in which case you can ignore this section. More likely, though, one will go somewhere around the No. 10 pick. At that point, teams will start looking to make a move. As spread formations become more prevalent across the league, there is going to be a higher demand for top wideouts, and odds are good that some team will want to make a move for Williams or Davis.
That's why it will be important for Philadelphia to trade up. Going from 15 to 10 or so might not sound like much, and in fact that's one of the reasons the Eagles should consider such a deal -- it likely won't cost them much in draft capital. But it might be necessary to find a top target for Wentz, and pairing a stud rookie receiver with their second-year quarterback would be a bold move that will pay off not only in 2017, but perhaps for the better part of the next decade. -- Vincent Verhei
Washington Redskins
Trade the 'franchise' quarterback
The Redskins are kind of stuck. They are not necessarily a bad team, but they are not a particularly good team either. In three years under Jay Gruden, they have gone 21-26-1, with barely winning records in the past two seasons and struggles against the league's better teams. They have gone just 3-11 against teams that went on to make the playoffs, and 18-15-1 against everyone else. Worse yet, the core of the team's offense -- quarterback Kirk Cousins and wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon -- remains unsigned for 2017.
Washington has used the exclusive franchise tag on Cousins, which guarantees him a salary of nearly $24 million in 2017. It will make him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league and leave Washington with only $35 million or so in cap space. Worse, it's just a one-year deal, which means the team might have to use the franchise tag on him again in 2018 -- and doing so would guarantee Cousins a $35 million salary for that one season, which would be lunacy. Washington could avoid that disaster by signing Cousins to a long-term contract, but with a bank-breaking 2018 payday on the horizon, there's little incentive for Cousins to do that unless Washington offers a blowaway deal -- and if it wanted to do that, it likely would have been done a long time ago.
For the time being, Cousins' contract is going to make it difficult to retain Garcon and even harder to retain Jackson. And even if Washington could get all three under contract, where would that leave them? With no cap space to add talent on the other side of the ball, they would be right where they are now, with a strong offense and questionable defense that leaves them in a constant string of seven-to-nine-win seasons, occasionally sneaking into the playoffs but never advancing very far. Even that might be optimistic in a deep division like the NFC East, where the Giants and Cowboys both made the playoffs last year and the Eagles look to be on the rise. There are no Jacksonvilles or Clevelands to exploit here.
So perhaps it's time to hit reset. Rumors out of the Bay Area say the 49ers would be willing to part with the No. 2 overall selection as part of a deal for Cousins. That move would reunite the signal-caller with his former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Washington could then use that No. 2 pick to take a dominant runner such as Leonard Fournette or a defensive stud such as Jonathan Allen, then add a young, cheap quarterback a few rounds later. Perhaps a veteran free agent such as Tyrod Taylor, with his running ability, could bring top-shelf explosiveness to the Washington offense at a bargain-bin price. The Redskins could then take the money they saved at the quarterback position and invest in the defense, grabbing a free agent such as Calais Campbell or Dont'a Hightower.
Chicago Bears
Trade for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo
This could be our bold move suggestion for about half the teams in the league, but few moves this offseason would be bolder than the Bears bringing in the hometown quarterback to try to revitalize the franchise.
The Bears look to finally be moving on from Jay Cutler, and every other quarterback on the roster is a free agent of one sort or another. It's time to rebuild after hitting rock bottom at 3-13, and the Bears have a number of options. They could re-sign Brian Hoyer and use him as a bridge to a mid-round prospect. They could use the No. 3 overall pick on Mitch Trubisky or DeShone Kizer. They could see if Tyrod Taylor is cut from the Bills, or take a gamble on Tony Romocoming back from injury. (Chicago likely wouldn't even appeal to Romo, given his stated desire to live within a short flight of his family in Dallas.)
Of course, no move in the NFL today is bolder than trying to beat the Patriots in a trade, so let's look at Garoppolo. The third-year backup was sharp replacing Tom Brady at the beginning of this season, with a passing DVOA of 43.7 percent and a QBR of 90.0. It's a small sample size, but those are better numbers than Matt Cassel put up when replacing Brady back in 2008, and inspired some brief discussion of whether the Patriots should even bring Brady back during the jump-to-conclusions portion of the early season. Some draft observers believe Garoppolo is a better prospect than anyone in the 2017 draft; it's fairly clear none of this year's prospects are regarded as highly as Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were a year ago. If the Bears agree with this, then using the third overall pick -- or, more ideally, the No. 36 pick and some other mid-round selections -- to pry Garoppolo free might be the move they need to make to begin their offensive rebuild. -- Bryan Knowles
Detroit Lions
Sign defensive end Charles Johnson
The Lions need help along the defensive line, as the lack of pressure they put on opposing quarterbacks goes a long way to explaining the fact they finished dead last in pass defense DVOA in 2016. Detroit managed just 26 total sacks and had an adjusted sack rate of 5.4 percent, both stats resting firmly in the bottom 10. Applying more pressure and forcing quarterbacks to make quicker decisions would be a significant boost to the Lions' passing-game woes.
The safe play is to trust Ezekiel Ansah and Kerry Hyder as your edge rushers, add some rotational depth behind them, and improve on the aging Haloti Ngata up the middle. The bold move is to use Hyder as a depth player and go out to sign a big name in free agency. It was shaping up to be a pretty good offseason to be shopping for an edge rusher, but the big names -- Chandler Jones, Jason Pierre-Paul and Melvin Ingram -- have been slapped with franchise tags. With the surefire prospects gone, signing a defensive end becomes more of a risk, but one with a potential high reward.
Enter Charles Johnson. He used to be an absolute stud pass-rusher for the Panthers, averaging double-digit sacks from 2010 through 2014. However, injuries and age have slowed him down the past couple of seasons, and he recorded only 18.5 pressures last season, according to Sports Info Solutions charting. Johnson will be 31 next season, but it's not a bad gamble to hope for a rebound season. He battled through hamstring troubles in both 2015 and 2016, and was still a good player, especially against the run, despite his injuries. A healthy Johnson may not be a double-digit sack producer and primary pass-rushing threat anymore, but he could still contribute significant production if paired with another good pass-rusher -- say, Ansah. A one-year deal for Johnson is a high-risk, high-reward play, the kind of play you need to make when you had the worst defense in the NFL. -- Bryan Knowles
Green Bay Packers
Cut linebacker Clay Matthews
From a philosophical standpoint, the Packers abhor bold moves. They don't go out of their way to sign big-name free agents -- Jared Cook and Julius Peppers are the only two notable names the team has picked up in the past four years -- and they don't overpay for their own free agents. General manager Ted Thompson instead builds through the draft, using trades and compensatory picks to build up the roster. The slow-but-safe strategy has paid off with an eight-year playoff streak and a Super Bowl win. A bold move for Green Bay, then, might be suggesting they actually sign a player from another team -- a cornerback such as A.J. Bouye or Logan Ryan, perhaps, or an inside linebacker such as Dont'a Hightower.
That would take cap space, however, and while Over The Cap projects the Packers to have $41 million in space entering free agency, they have a sizable number of free agents to re-sign: running back Eddie Lacy, tight end Cook, offensive linemen T.J. Lang and JC Tretter, edge rushers Nick Perry and Peppers, and defensive back Micah Hyde, to name just a few. That starts to add up, and Green Bay might have some tough decisions to make simply because of its finances.
Which brings us to Matthews. While undeniably a team leader, Matthews' play in 2016 was not up to his previous standards. Missing time with a hamstring injury and playing through a shoulder injury, Matthews ended with career lows in tackles and sacks, and dropped to playing just 46.4 percent of Green Bay's defensive snaps. He has two more years on his contract, but the Packers could free up nearly $11 million by cutting the star this offseason. Matthews, who will be 31 next season, probably has one or two more solid years in him before age really takes its toll, but it's always better to move on from a player a year too soon than a year too late. It would be wildly unpopular and would leave the Packers with a bigger hole to fill in the front seven, but it would give them more financial flexibility. -- Bryan Knowles
Minnesota Vikings
Buy an offensive line
The Vikings' offensive line was a disaster last season. The starters played poorly, got hurt, and then the backups stepped in and did even worse. Nine linemen started at least one game for Minnesota, and only guard Alex Boone emerged with both his reputation intact and a contract for 2017. That leaves the Vikings with four starting positions to worry about.
Some moves are fairly obvious. They'll likely look to re-sign Joe Berger to shore up the interior, and reserve tackle Jeremiah Sirleslooked better than starter Andre Smith did, so he could stick around at right tackle. The Vikings may be a bit gun-shy about spending big in free agency after the Smith signing worked out so poorly in 2016, so the safe strategy is picking up some midrange free agents, using draft picks wisely, and gradually rebuilding from a disaster to something respectable. Adrian Peterson's option, and bring in some big impact names. Without a first-round pick, it's the quickest way they have to return to normal service up front. Signing a free-agent lineman from Cincinnati didn't work out last year, but bringing in Kevin Zeitler, one of the top guards in the game, would likely turn out much better. Picking up Ricky Wagner or Kelvin Beachum to shore up the left tackle spot would be a big upgrade as well. It would put a crimp on the Minnesota cap situation going forward, but desperate times on the line sometimes call for desperate measures. -- Bryan Knowles
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Sign the best pass-rusher available
Atlanta's boldest move of the offseason may have already happened, with the Falcons hiring former Washington Huskies and USC Trojans head coach Steve Sarkisian to replace new 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan as their offensive coordinator. The Falcons are one of the most offense-driven teams in the league, and will live or die by the performances of reigning MVP Matt Ryan, top receiver Julio Jones, and the running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. That means Sarkisian is probably the most important hire they could possibly make this offseason.
That said, even if Sarkisian does an excellent job as Shanahan's replacement, a drop-off from last season's league-best offense is likely. The Falcons will need to see improvement from their young defense if they are to have the best chance of repeating as NFC champions. The surest way to improve a defense is to improve its pass rush, and the surest way to achieve that is to sign the best pass-rusher available. That looked set to be Melvin Ingram or Jason Pierre-Paul, but both have now been placed under the franchise tag by their respective franchises.
Mario Addison is also off the market after agreeing to an extension with the Panthers, leaving Charles Johnson, Nick Perry and Calais Campbell as probably the Falcons' three best options. Perry and Johnson would work as traditional edge rushers in Atlanta's 4-3 front, or Campbell could shift situationally between a 5-technique end and 3-technique tackle -- he has experience playing both roles in Arizona's 3-4 scheme. Pairing Vic Beasley Jr. with any of those three, on either side of Super Bowl star Grady Jarrett, would give the Falcons a pass rush to be feared, hopefully making life that much more enjoyable for the potential rising stars of their young back seven. -- Andrew Potter
Carolina Panthers
Replace Ted Ginn Jr. with DeSean Jackson
Cam Newton has done a lot of very impressive things in the five years since he was drafted first overall by the Panthers, but one of his more impressive feats has been helping former Dolphins kick returner Ginn enjoy actual success as a wide receiver. Ginn has 19 receiving touchdowns in his three years catching passes from Newton, versus a mere six in his seven seasons on other teams. Ginn has been plagued by inconsistency throughout his career; while he is capable of some spectacular plays, he still misses too many easy receptions to be a truly reliable target. His most recent season in Carolina was his worst for both touchdowns and DYAR despite posting a relatively decent yardage total and catch rate. If there's one thing Newton could really use ... well, it's actually a decent offensive tackle or two, but a truly reliable receiver would be next on the list.
Jackson is that type of receiver, doubly so considering his role as a deep threat and the quarterbacks who have thrown him passes. Jackson's career-low of 42 DYAR (back in 2012) was better than eight of Ginn's 10 seasons, and Jackson has enjoyed success on teams quarterbacked by such greats as Robert Griffin III, Nick Foles, post-prison Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb. The best quarterback Jackson has played with is either Kirk Cousins or late-career Donovan McNabb, making him about as desperate to play with a top quarterback as Newton is to play with a top receiver. There aren't many plausible potential moves this offseason that would be a bigger immediate upgrade. -- Andrew Potter
New Orleans Saints
Sign A.J. Klein, or at least one other linebacker
The Saints have had a bad defense for so long that it's now taken for granted. They've ranked 28th or worse in DVOA in five of the past six seasons, their random 10th-place finish in 2013 being the sole exception. Bad defense is as much a part of this team's identity as black and gold, the Superdome and Drew Brees. Many attempts have been made at fixing the problem, from free-agent splashes on the likes of Jairus Byrd and Curtis Lofton to premium draft picks spent on Cameron Jordan, Kenny Vaccaro, Stephone Anthony and most recently Sheldon Rankins. Jordan has been an unqualified success, Vaccaro has shown promise, and Rankins flashed pass-rush ability in his rookie season. The free agents have fared less well: Lofton is now in Oakland, Byrd is set to be released this offseason, while last year's additions James Laurinaitis and Craig Robertson have failed, along with 2015 first-rounder Anthony, to shore up the team's linebacking corps.
That needs to change. It's difficult to look at that linebacker group and find one player who should be counted on as a starter in 2017. Robertson is a competent run-stuffer in a passing league, Anthony still looks lost whenever a quarterback drops back instead of handing off, Laurinaitis didn't make it past November before being released, and Nate Stupar is a special teamer stuck in the defensive rotation by default. That leaves the oft-injured Dannell Ellerbe, who is capable of making an impact -- when he's capable of getting on the field. Though the staff has reportedly made cornerback and defensive end its priorities, both are positions in which the draft is supposedly teeming with talent.
For a linebacker, they should turn to free agency and make Luke Kuechly's deputy fill-in A.J. Klein their priority. Klein filled in well in Kuechly's absence last season and will be looking for a starting role, which should be all but guaranteed in New Orleans. A capable three-down player, the only knock on him seems to be he's not Kuechly, which is no searing indictment. How much Klein costs would then dictate a potential second target, most likely from the bargain end of the market. Prioritize coverage ability over run-stuffing, pick up the other pieces in the draft, and maybe the defense can finally get out of the bottom five again while Brees still has something left in his arm. -- Andrew Potter
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Complete the defense first
Their offense has more weak points, but the Buccaneers were a free safety and a defensive tackle away from having one of the league's best defenses in 2016. Even with their safety position manned by the final starting gasps of Chris Conte, the adequately adequate Bradley McDougald, and a handful of starts from Keith Tandy, Tampa Bay had the sixth-best pass defense in the league by DVOA and a very decent chance at the playoffs come mid-December.
It's also quite easy to identify the Bucs' needs: a safety or two -- particularly a rangy free safety -- a clogger in the middle of the line alongside Gerald McCoy, and potentially another defensive end in a draft widely considered deep at that position. That would give the Buccaneers more pieces to complement a solid group of cornerbacks and two of the best young linebackers in the league, and improve their chances of competing in a division that once again in 2017 will probably feature two of the league's best offenses. Tony Jefferson is a rangy, athletic safety who is comfortable both at the line of scrimmage and in deep coverage. Johnathan Hankins of the Giants is probably the best free agent available at defensive tackle. That sort of aggression would be atypical of the Buccaneers in recent years, but it's a long while since they had a defense close enough to greatness to splurge for the final pieces. -- Andrew Potter
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Re-sign (via franchise or otherwise) both Chandler Jones and Calais Campbell
Arizona can clear out cap space to sign both of these defensive studs by cutting some combination of Daryl Washington, Mike Iupati and Justin Bethel, among others. The Seahawks and their much-maligned offensive line are the Cardinals' biggest threat in the division, so keeping as much of their starting defensive front together as possible would give them a huge matchup advantage in their two games against the Seahawks in 2017. The Cardinals went 1-0-1 against the Seahawks last season, and if the Seahawks' recent history against the Cardinals, Rams and Panthers is any indication, having a strong defensive line can cause the Seahawks' offense to break down before it can even get started.
Keeping both Jones and Campbell would likely preclude the Cardinals from re-signing free-agent safety Tony Jefferson, but if you can consistently pressure the quarterback as a defense, it can cover up some weaknesses on the back end. This is also a deep draft for defensive backs, so a cheaper replacement for Jefferson will be available at some point. The Cardinals do have 2016 first-rounder Robert Nkemdiche waiting in the wings to play on the defensive line. But with Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald nearing the ends of their careers, Arizona shouldn't gamble on the unproven Nkemdiche. They should try to keep the band together while Palmer is still around, even if it hurts in 2018. -- Carl Yoder
Los Angeles Rams
Sign wide receiver Alshon Jeffery
After the Jared Goff trade last year, the Rams don't have many high-value picks in this year's draft available to address their needs at positions such as wide receiver and offensive line. As such, Los Angeles doesn't have the capital available to make a bold trade. However, the Rams do have some money available to spend on the free-agent market. Wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon of Washington are both free agents, and Los Angeles coach Sean McVay has experience working with the two of them from his time with the Redskins. However, in a division where Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman are always on the schedule, it would make sense for the Rams to bring in a big, physical No. 1 receiver for Goff to work with.
As frustrating as Goff's rookie season was, he didn't get a lot of help from the guys around him, so the Rams should dive into free agency and sign Jeffery in order to help open up the offense. The threat of Jeffery would take defensive attention away from Tavon Austin and open up more space for him on quick screens and underneath routes. Austin's speed would have a better opportunity to shine through if he isn't a guy defenses are keying on. The same can be said for Todd Gurley, who is entering his third season. After an explosive start in his rookie season, Gurley did not impress in his second year, and adding Jeffery would hopefully allow Los Angeles to get more out of the former Georgia Bulldog. -- Carl Yoder
San Francisco 49ers
Sign-and-trade Alshon Jeffery for additional picks
The 49ers currently have a massive amount of cap space and few key free agents that they absolutely need to retain. Given that the team is likely more than a year away from returning to the heights of the Jim Harbaugh era, it would make sense for the 49ers to sign a prized free agent with the understanding that they would then trade him to a cap-strapped team such as Philadelphia, effectively renting their cap space out for draft picks. ESPN's Bill Barnwell once raised this hypothetical situation on a podcast, and Chase Stuart expanded on it at his Football Perspective website, using the Jaguars as an example.
Jeffery would work here. San Francisco could sign Jeffery as a free agent and pay him a larger-than-normal signing bonus up front. They would then subsequently trade him to the Eagles for a valuable package of picks, with Philadelphia essentially using picks to open up salary-cap space they would not have otherwise. When the player is traded, his signing bonus accelerates onto the original team's cap, so the 49ers would be left with a dead-money charge for Jeffery as the cost of effectively buying the picks from the Eagles.
The 49ers could then take those picks and either use them in the draft themselves or as part of a trade package for the Patriots' Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco would likely view the No. 2 overall pick as too high of a cost for Garoppolo, but if they acquired more picks as part of this hypothetical trade with the Eagles, they could put together a package worth something similar to a late first-round pick without forgoing the opportunity to load up on other young players in the draft. -- Carl Yoder
Seattle Seahawks
Aggressively pursue a trade for Joe Thomas
During John Schneider's tenure as general manager, Seattle has not been afraid to make aggressive decisions where other teams might shy away and pursue a more conventional route. In recent years, the Seahawks have traded first-round picks and quality players for Percy Harvin and Jimmy Graham and experimented with just how much Russell Wilson's mobility could cover up for his offensive line. One move that has been discussed frequently is trading for left tackle Joe Thomas of the Browns, but Cleveland does not seem interested in moving its fantastic tackle for anything less than a king's ransom.
Given how close the Seahawks have been in recent years to winning another Super Bowl, it may be time for Seattle to make another bold trade, this time for Thomas, to improve their chances at another ring. The NFL awarded the Seahawks two compensatory third-round picks and did not penalize them with a loss of any draft picks for the Richard Sherman injury disclosure gaffe. With five of the first 106 picks in the draft, the Seahawks have enough capital available to make an aggressive play for Thomas without giving up the opportunity to add depth at all three levels of the defense in what should be a great draft for defensive talent.
Offensive tackle is also one of the shallower positions in this year's draft, so acquiring a future Hall of Famer to protect Wilson's blind side would be a major upgrade and allow the raw George Fant to learn from one of the best left tackles we've seen. Trading for Thomas makes all the sense in the world from the Seahawks' perspective, but it takes two to tango. Cleveland correctly does not want to trade its star left tackle, so Seattle would have to make the Browns an offer they couldn't refuse if they're serious about landing Thomas. -- Carl Yoder
Each NFL team's offseason is filled with small moves and marginal personnel decisions. Sometimes, that series of small moves will build a winner. But a big, bold move can help dramatically -- by improving talent at an important position or changing the overall direction of the franchise.
This week, we'll be suggesting a bold move for each team. Some of these are realistic; others are more far-fetched, but each would provide a significant change and improve a team's chances of winning future Super Bowls.
As a reminder, Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here and will be referenced below.
AFC article published here.
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Keep quarterback Tony Romo
With QB Dak Prescott leading the team to 13 wins and a No. 1 seed in his first season, why should the Cowboys keep Romo (and his $24.7 million cap number) in Dallas? Here's one reason: Connor Cook. Here's another: Matt Moore. And a third: Brock Osweiler. When Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill and Tom Savage went down with injuries for the Raiders, Dolphins and Texans, a quarter of the teams in the 2016 playoffs were realistically eliminated before the postseason even began. With Romo on the roster, the Cowboys would still be playoff contenders even if injury were to strike Prescott in his second season.
So the question is not really if the Cowboys should keep Romo, but whether how such a move might be financially feasible. According to OverTheCap.com, the Cowboys have a league-low $4.2 million in cap space. Romo has the biggest 2017 cap hit on the team at $24.7 million. Cutting or trading him now would save the Cowboys more than $5 million in cap space; cutting him after June 1 would save them $14 million.
But while Romo would be cartoonishly overpaid as a backup, the Cowboys might be able to afford it because Prescott is cartoonishly underpaid as a starter. Between Romo, Prescott and Jameill Showers, the Cowboys have a total of $25.8 million in 2017 cap space devoted to the quarterback position. That's a lot, but it's not quite the most in the league -- the Cardinals have $28.3 million devoted to their two quarterbacks, Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton. Keeping Romo might stop the Cowboys from spending big money in free agency, but this team won 13 games last season -- it's not as though they have a lot of holes to fill. -- Vincent Verhei
New York Giants
Trade for offensive tackle Joe Thomas
On the surface, it looks like the troubles in the Giants' offense last season had little to do with pass protection. They were second in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, which accounts for factors such as down, distance and opponent strength. And according to Sports Info Solutions charting, the Giants had one of the 10 lowest rates of offensive pass pressure in the league.
What those numbers don't show, however, is that Eli Manning was rarely given time in the pocket to look for big passing plays down the field. Fifty-four percent of his passes were thrown to receivers within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, the highest rate of his career, and he averaged just 10.7 yards per completion, the lowest rate of his career.
Enter Thomas, the Cleveland offensive tackle who has made 10 Pro Bowls and six All-Pro teams in his career. With the Browns coming off a one-win season and looking to build for the future, it only makes sense that they would at least listen to offers for Thomas, who will turn 33 during the season. The Giants have the 23rd pick in six of the draft's seven rounds (they will pick 34th in Round 4), which should give them some options in putting a deal together. If they can't work anything out with Cleveland, they also could look to the Bay Area, where Joe Staley is in a similar situation: a talented veteran tackle on a rebuilding team.
Either of these trades would make the Giants better at left tackle while also letting Ereck Flowers move to right tackle, effectively improving at two positions and hopefully bringing the long ball back to New York. -- Vincent Verhei
Philadelphia Eagles
Trade up in the draft for a top wide receiver
Things could change dramatically after the combine, but right now it appears that two wide receivers are head and shoulders above the rest in this draft class: Clemson's Mike Williams and Western Michigan's Corey Davis. Scouts Inc. has both wideouts among the top 15 players in the draft, with no other receivers making the top 30. Landing either one would be a coup for the Eagles, who would love to find a real outside No. 1 receiver instead of trying to use Jordan Matthews in that role.
The Eagles have moved up and down this draft as a result of the Carson Wentz and Sam Bradford trades, but right now they have the No. 15 pick in the first round. If they're lucky, one or both of those receivers will fall to that spot, in which case you can ignore this section. More likely, though, one will go somewhere around the No. 10 pick. At that point, teams will start looking to make a move. As spread formations become more prevalent across the league, there is going to be a higher demand for top wideouts, and odds are good that some team will want to make a move for Williams or Davis.
That's why it will be important for Philadelphia to trade up. Going from 15 to 10 or so might not sound like much, and in fact that's one of the reasons the Eagles should consider such a deal -- it likely won't cost them much in draft capital. But it might be necessary to find a top target for Wentz, and pairing a stud rookie receiver with their second-year quarterback would be a bold move that will pay off not only in 2017, but perhaps for the better part of the next decade. -- Vincent Verhei
Washington Redskins
Trade the 'franchise' quarterback
The Redskins are kind of stuck. They are not necessarily a bad team, but they are not a particularly good team either. In three years under Jay Gruden, they have gone 21-26-1, with barely winning records in the past two seasons and struggles against the league's better teams. They have gone just 3-11 against teams that went on to make the playoffs, and 18-15-1 against everyone else. Worse yet, the core of the team's offense -- quarterback Kirk Cousins and wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon -- remains unsigned for 2017.
Washington has used the exclusive franchise tag on Cousins, which guarantees him a salary of nearly $24 million in 2017. It will make him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league and leave Washington with only $35 million or so in cap space. Worse, it's just a one-year deal, which means the team might have to use the franchise tag on him again in 2018 -- and doing so would guarantee Cousins a $35 million salary for that one season, which would be lunacy. Washington could avoid that disaster by signing Cousins to a long-term contract, but with a bank-breaking 2018 payday on the horizon, there's little incentive for Cousins to do that unless Washington offers a blowaway deal -- and if it wanted to do that, it likely would have been done a long time ago.
For the time being, Cousins' contract is going to make it difficult to retain Garcon and even harder to retain Jackson. And even if Washington could get all three under contract, where would that leave them? With no cap space to add talent on the other side of the ball, they would be right where they are now, with a strong offense and questionable defense that leaves them in a constant string of seven-to-nine-win seasons, occasionally sneaking into the playoffs but never advancing very far. Even that might be optimistic in a deep division like the NFC East, where the Giants and Cowboys both made the playoffs last year and the Eagles look to be on the rise. There are no Jacksonvilles or Clevelands to exploit here.
So perhaps it's time to hit reset. Rumors out of the Bay Area say the 49ers would be willing to part with the No. 2 overall selection as part of a deal for Cousins. That move would reunite the signal-caller with his former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Washington could then use that No. 2 pick to take a dominant runner such as Leonard Fournette or a defensive stud such as Jonathan Allen, then add a young, cheap quarterback a few rounds later. Perhaps a veteran free agent such as Tyrod Taylor, with his running ability, could bring top-shelf explosiveness to the Washington offense at a bargain-bin price. The Redskins could then take the money they saved at the quarterback position and invest in the defense, grabbing a free agent such as Calais Campbell or Dont'a Hightower.
Chicago Bears
Trade for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo
This could be our bold move suggestion for about half the teams in the league, but few moves this offseason would be bolder than the Bears bringing in the hometown quarterback to try to revitalize the franchise.
The Bears look to finally be moving on from Jay Cutler, and every other quarterback on the roster is a free agent of one sort or another. It's time to rebuild after hitting rock bottom at 3-13, and the Bears have a number of options. They could re-sign Brian Hoyer and use him as a bridge to a mid-round prospect. They could use the No. 3 overall pick on Mitch Trubisky or DeShone Kizer. They could see if Tyrod Taylor is cut from the Bills, or take a gamble on Tony Romocoming back from injury. (Chicago likely wouldn't even appeal to Romo, given his stated desire to live within a short flight of his family in Dallas.)
Of course, no move in the NFL today is bolder than trying to beat the Patriots in a trade, so let's look at Garoppolo. The third-year backup was sharp replacing Tom Brady at the beginning of this season, with a passing DVOA of 43.7 percent and a QBR of 90.0. It's a small sample size, but those are better numbers than Matt Cassel put up when replacing Brady back in 2008, and inspired some brief discussion of whether the Patriots should even bring Brady back during the jump-to-conclusions portion of the early season. Some draft observers believe Garoppolo is a better prospect than anyone in the 2017 draft; it's fairly clear none of this year's prospects are regarded as highly as Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were a year ago. If the Bears agree with this, then using the third overall pick -- or, more ideally, the No. 36 pick and some other mid-round selections -- to pry Garoppolo free might be the move they need to make to begin their offensive rebuild. -- Bryan Knowles
Detroit Lions
Sign defensive end Charles Johnson
The Lions need help along the defensive line, as the lack of pressure they put on opposing quarterbacks goes a long way to explaining the fact they finished dead last in pass defense DVOA in 2016. Detroit managed just 26 total sacks and had an adjusted sack rate of 5.4 percent, both stats resting firmly in the bottom 10. Applying more pressure and forcing quarterbacks to make quicker decisions would be a significant boost to the Lions' passing-game woes.
The safe play is to trust Ezekiel Ansah and Kerry Hyder as your edge rushers, add some rotational depth behind them, and improve on the aging Haloti Ngata up the middle. The bold move is to use Hyder as a depth player and go out to sign a big name in free agency. It was shaping up to be a pretty good offseason to be shopping for an edge rusher, but the big names -- Chandler Jones, Jason Pierre-Paul and Melvin Ingram -- have been slapped with franchise tags. With the surefire prospects gone, signing a defensive end becomes more of a risk, but one with a potential high reward.
Enter Charles Johnson. He used to be an absolute stud pass-rusher for the Panthers, averaging double-digit sacks from 2010 through 2014. However, injuries and age have slowed him down the past couple of seasons, and he recorded only 18.5 pressures last season, according to Sports Info Solutions charting. Johnson will be 31 next season, but it's not a bad gamble to hope for a rebound season. He battled through hamstring troubles in both 2015 and 2016, and was still a good player, especially against the run, despite his injuries. A healthy Johnson may not be a double-digit sack producer and primary pass-rushing threat anymore, but he could still contribute significant production if paired with another good pass-rusher -- say, Ansah. A one-year deal for Johnson is a high-risk, high-reward play, the kind of play you need to make when you had the worst defense in the NFL. -- Bryan Knowles
Green Bay Packers
Cut linebacker Clay Matthews
From a philosophical standpoint, the Packers abhor bold moves. They don't go out of their way to sign big-name free agents -- Jared Cook and Julius Peppers are the only two notable names the team has picked up in the past four years -- and they don't overpay for their own free agents. General manager Ted Thompson instead builds through the draft, using trades and compensatory picks to build up the roster. The slow-but-safe strategy has paid off with an eight-year playoff streak and a Super Bowl win. A bold move for Green Bay, then, might be suggesting they actually sign a player from another team -- a cornerback such as A.J. Bouye or Logan Ryan, perhaps, or an inside linebacker such as Dont'a Hightower.
That would take cap space, however, and while Over The Cap projects the Packers to have $41 million in space entering free agency, they have a sizable number of free agents to re-sign: running back Eddie Lacy, tight end Cook, offensive linemen T.J. Lang and JC Tretter, edge rushers Nick Perry and Peppers, and defensive back Micah Hyde, to name just a few. That starts to add up, and Green Bay might have some tough decisions to make simply because of its finances.
Which brings us to Matthews. While undeniably a team leader, Matthews' play in 2016 was not up to his previous standards. Missing time with a hamstring injury and playing through a shoulder injury, Matthews ended with career lows in tackles and sacks, and dropped to playing just 46.4 percent of Green Bay's defensive snaps. He has two more years on his contract, but the Packers could free up nearly $11 million by cutting the star this offseason. Matthews, who will be 31 next season, probably has one or two more solid years in him before age really takes its toll, but it's always better to move on from a player a year too soon than a year too late. It would be wildly unpopular and would leave the Packers with a bigger hole to fill in the front seven, but it would give them more financial flexibility. -- Bryan Knowles
Minnesota Vikings
Buy an offensive line
The Vikings' offensive line was a disaster last season. The starters played poorly, got hurt, and then the backups stepped in and did even worse. Nine linemen started at least one game for Minnesota, and only guard Alex Boone emerged with both his reputation intact and a contract for 2017. That leaves the Vikings with four starting positions to worry about.
Some moves are fairly obvious. They'll likely look to re-sign Joe Berger to shore up the interior, and reserve tackle Jeremiah Sirleslooked better than starter Andre Smith did, so he could stick around at right tackle. The Vikings may be a bit gun-shy about spending big in free agency after the Smith signing worked out so poorly in 2016, so the safe strategy is picking up some midrange free agents, using draft picks wisely, and gradually rebuilding from a disaster to something respectable. Adrian Peterson's option, and bring in some big impact names. Without a first-round pick, it's the quickest way they have to return to normal service up front. Signing a free-agent lineman from Cincinnati didn't work out last year, but bringing in Kevin Zeitler, one of the top guards in the game, would likely turn out much better. Picking up Ricky Wagner or Kelvin Beachum to shore up the left tackle spot would be a big upgrade as well. It would put a crimp on the Minnesota cap situation going forward, but desperate times on the line sometimes call for desperate measures. -- Bryan Knowles
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Sign the best pass-rusher available
Atlanta's boldest move of the offseason may have already happened, with the Falcons hiring former Washington Huskies and USC Trojans head coach Steve Sarkisian to replace new 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan as their offensive coordinator. The Falcons are one of the most offense-driven teams in the league, and will live or die by the performances of reigning MVP Matt Ryan, top receiver Julio Jones, and the running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. That means Sarkisian is probably the most important hire they could possibly make this offseason.
That said, even if Sarkisian does an excellent job as Shanahan's replacement, a drop-off from last season's league-best offense is likely. The Falcons will need to see improvement from their young defense if they are to have the best chance of repeating as NFC champions. The surest way to improve a defense is to improve its pass rush, and the surest way to achieve that is to sign the best pass-rusher available. That looked set to be Melvin Ingram or Jason Pierre-Paul, but both have now been placed under the franchise tag by their respective franchises.
Mario Addison is also off the market after agreeing to an extension with the Panthers, leaving Charles Johnson, Nick Perry and Calais Campbell as probably the Falcons' three best options. Perry and Johnson would work as traditional edge rushers in Atlanta's 4-3 front, or Campbell could shift situationally between a 5-technique end and 3-technique tackle -- he has experience playing both roles in Arizona's 3-4 scheme. Pairing Vic Beasley Jr. with any of those three, on either side of Super Bowl star Grady Jarrett, would give the Falcons a pass rush to be feared, hopefully making life that much more enjoyable for the potential rising stars of their young back seven. -- Andrew Potter
Carolina Panthers
Replace Ted Ginn Jr. with DeSean Jackson
Cam Newton has done a lot of very impressive things in the five years since he was drafted first overall by the Panthers, but one of his more impressive feats has been helping former Dolphins kick returner Ginn enjoy actual success as a wide receiver. Ginn has 19 receiving touchdowns in his three years catching passes from Newton, versus a mere six in his seven seasons on other teams. Ginn has been plagued by inconsistency throughout his career; while he is capable of some spectacular plays, he still misses too many easy receptions to be a truly reliable target. His most recent season in Carolina was his worst for both touchdowns and DYAR despite posting a relatively decent yardage total and catch rate. If there's one thing Newton could really use ... well, it's actually a decent offensive tackle or two, but a truly reliable receiver would be next on the list.
Jackson is that type of receiver, doubly so considering his role as a deep threat and the quarterbacks who have thrown him passes. Jackson's career-low of 42 DYAR (back in 2012) was better than eight of Ginn's 10 seasons, and Jackson has enjoyed success on teams quarterbacked by such greats as Robert Griffin III, Nick Foles, post-prison Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb. The best quarterback Jackson has played with is either Kirk Cousins or late-career Donovan McNabb, making him about as desperate to play with a top quarterback as Newton is to play with a top receiver. There aren't many plausible potential moves this offseason that would be a bigger immediate upgrade. -- Andrew Potter
New Orleans Saints
Sign A.J. Klein, or at least one other linebacker
The Saints have had a bad defense for so long that it's now taken for granted. They've ranked 28th or worse in DVOA in five of the past six seasons, their random 10th-place finish in 2013 being the sole exception. Bad defense is as much a part of this team's identity as black and gold, the Superdome and Drew Brees. Many attempts have been made at fixing the problem, from free-agent splashes on the likes of Jairus Byrd and Curtis Lofton to premium draft picks spent on Cameron Jordan, Kenny Vaccaro, Stephone Anthony and most recently Sheldon Rankins. Jordan has been an unqualified success, Vaccaro has shown promise, and Rankins flashed pass-rush ability in his rookie season. The free agents have fared less well: Lofton is now in Oakland, Byrd is set to be released this offseason, while last year's additions James Laurinaitis and Craig Robertson have failed, along with 2015 first-rounder Anthony, to shore up the team's linebacking corps.
That needs to change. It's difficult to look at that linebacker group and find one player who should be counted on as a starter in 2017. Robertson is a competent run-stuffer in a passing league, Anthony still looks lost whenever a quarterback drops back instead of handing off, Laurinaitis didn't make it past November before being released, and Nate Stupar is a special teamer stuck in the defensive rotation by default. That leaves the oft-injured Dannell Ellerbe, who is capable of making an impact -- when he's capable of getting on the field. Though the staff has reportedly made cornerback and defensive end its priorities, both are positions in which the draft is supposedly teeming with talent.
For a linebacker, they should turn to free agency and make Luke Kuechly's deputy fill-in A.J. Klein their priority. Klein filled in well in Kuechly's absence last season and will be looking for a starting role, which should be all but guaranteed in New Orleans. A capable three-down player, the only knock on him seems to be he's not Kuechly, which is no searing indictment. How much Klein costs would then dictate a potential second target, most likely from the bargain end of the market. Prioritize coverage ability over run-stuffing, pick up the other pieces in the draft, and maybe the defense can finally get out of the bottom five again while Brees still has something left in his arm. -- Andrew Potter
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Complete the defense first
Their offense has more weak points, but the Buccaneers were a free safety and a defensive tackle away from having one of the league's best defenses in 2016. Even with their safety position manned by the final starting gasps of Chris Conte, the adequately adequate Bradley McDougald, and a handful of starts from Keith Tandy, Tampa Bay had the sixth-best pass defense in the league by DVOA and a very decent chance at the playoffs come mid-December.
It's also quite easy to identify the Bucs' needs: a safety or two -- particularly a rangy free safety -- a clogger in the middle of the line alongside Gerald McCoy, and potentially another defensive end in a draft widely considered deep at that position. That would give the Buccaneers more pieces to complement a solid group of cornerbacks and two of the best young linebackers in the league, and improve their chances of competing in a division that once again in 2017 will probably feature two of the league's best offenses. Tony Jefferson is a rangy, athletic safety who is comfortable both at the line of scrimmage and in deep coverage. Johnathan Hankins of the Giants is probably the best free agent available at defensive tackle. That sort of aggression would be atypical of the Buccaneers in recent years, but it's a long while since they had a defense close enough to greatness to splurge for the final pieces. -- Andrew Potter
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Re-sign (via franchise or otherwise) both Chandler Jones and Calais Campbell
Arizona can clear out cap space to sign both of these defensive studs by cutting some combination of Daryl Washington, Mike Iupati and Justin Bethel, among others. The Seahawks and their much-maligned offensive line are the Cardinals' biggest threat in the division, so keeping as much of their starting defensive front together as possible would give them a huge matchup advantage in their two games against the Seahawks in 2017. The Cardinals went 1-0-1 against the Seahawks last season, and if the Seahawks' recent history against the Cardinals, Rams and Panthers is any indication, having a strong defensive line can cause the Seahawks' offense to break down before it can even get started.
Keeping both Jones and Campbell would likely preclude the Cardinals from re-signing free-agent safety Tony Jefferson, but if you can consistently pressure the quarterback as a defense, it can cover up some weaknesses on the back end. This is also a deep draft for defensive backs, so a cheaper replacement for Jefferson will be available at some point. The Cardinals do have 2016 first-rounder Robert Nkemdiche waiting in the wings to play on the defensive line. But with Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald nearing the ends of their careers, Arizona shouldn't gamble on the unproven Nkemdiche. They should try to keep the band together while Palmer is still around, even if it hurts in 2018. -- Carl Yoder
Los Angeles Rams
Sign wide receiver Alshon Jeffery
After the Jared Goff trade last year, the Rams don't have many high-value picks in this year's draft available to address their needs at positions such as wide receiver and offensive line. As such, Los Angeles doesn't have the capital available to make a bold trade. However, the Rams do have some money available to spend on the free-agent market. Wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon of Washington are both free agents, and Los Angeles coach Sean McVay has experience working with the two of them from his time with the Redskins. However, in a division where Patrick Peterson and Richard Sherman are always on the schedule, it would make sense for the Rams to bring in a big, physical No. 1 receiver for Goff to work with.
As frustrating as Goff's rookie season was, he didn't get a lot of help from the guys around him, so the Rams should dive into free agency and sign Jeffery in order to help open up the offense. The threat of Jeffery would take defensive attention away from Tavon Austin and open up more space for him on quick screens and underneath routes. Austin's speed would have a better opportunity to shine through if he isn't a guy defenses are keying on. The same can be said for Todd Gurley, who is entering his third season. After an explosive start in his rookie season, Gurley did not impress in his second year, and adding Jeffery would hopefully allow Los Angeles to get more out of the former Georgia Bulldog. -- Carl Yoder
San Francisco 49ers
Sign-and-trade Alshon Jeffery for additional picks
The 49ers currently have a massive amount of cap space and few key free agents that they absolutely need to retain. Given that the team is likely more than a year away from returning to the heights of the Jim Harbaugh era, it would make sense for the 49ers to sign a prized free agent with the understanding that they would then trade him to a cap-strapped team such as Philadelphia, effectively renting their cap space out for draft picks. ESPN's Bill Barnwell once raised this hypothetical situation on a podcast, and Chase Stuart expanded on it at his Football Perspective website, using the Jaguars as an example.
Jeffery would work here. San Francisco could sign Jeffery as a free agent and pay him a larger-than-normal signing bonus up front. They would then subsequently trade him to the Eagles for a valuable package of picks, with Philadelphia essentially using picks to open up salary-cap space they would not have otherwise. When the player is traded, his signing bonus accelerates onto the original team's cap, so the 49ers would be left with a dead-money charge for Jeffery as the cost of effectively buying the picks from the Eagles.
The 49ers could then take those picks and either use them in the draft themselves or as part of a trade package for the Patriots' Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco would likely view the No. 2 overall pick as too high of a cost for Garoppolo, but if they acquired more picks as part of this hypothetical trade with the Eagles, they could put together a package worth something similar to a late first-round pick without forgoing the opportunity to load up on other young players in the draft. -- Carl Yoder
Seattle Seahawks
Aggressively pursue a trade for Joe Thomas
During John Schneider's tenure as general manager, Seattle has not been afraid to make aggressive decisions where other teams might shy away and pursue a more conventional route. In recent years, the Seahawks have traded first-round picks and quality players for Percy Harvin and Jimmy Graham and experimented with just how much Russell Wilson's mobility could cover up for his offensive line. One move that has been discussed frequently is trading for left tackle Joe Thomas of the Browns, but Cleveland does not seem interested in moving its fantastic tackle for anything less than a king's ransom.
Given how close the Seahawks have been in recent years to winning another Super Bowl, it may be time for Seattle to make another bold trade, this time for Thomas, to improve their chances at another ring. The NFL awarded the Seahawks two compensatory third-round picks and did not penalize them with a loss of any draft picks for the Richard Sherman injury disclosure gaffe. With five of the first 106 picks in the draft, the Seahawks have enough capital available to make an aggressive play for Thomas without giving up the opportunity to add depth at all three levels of the defense in what should be a great draft for defensive talent.
Offensive tackle is also one of the shallower positions in this year's draft, so acquiring a future Hall of Famer to protect Wilson's blind side would be a major upgrade and allow the raw George Fant to learn from one of the best left tackles we've seen. Trading for Thomas makes all the sense in the world from the Seahawks' perspective, but it takes two to tango. Cleveland correctly does not want to trade its star left tackle, so Seattle would have to make the Browns an offer they couldn't refuse if they're serious about landing Thomas. -- Carl Yoder
