Betting Arizona vs. St. Louis

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The Dude
The undefeated Cardinals appear a good bet on the road

By Jeff Gold | ESPN Insider
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... sday-night

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When the Thursday night schedule was released, the Week 5 matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams was viewed as a total dud. They were expected to be two of the worst teams in the league.

Shockingly, the Cardinals are one of three undefeated teams left and the Rams have been a respectable 2-2, including a last-minute loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 1. The NFC West is no longer an embarrassment. The San Francisco 49ers won't be able to clinch the division before Thanksgiving.

Kevin Kolb has emerged as this year's favorite for the "When did that guy become good?" award. He couldn't even beat out John Skelton to start the year as Arizona's starter. But he's playing like the guy the Cardinals expected when they traded Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second-round pick for him in 2011. Kolb has thrown seven touchdowns and only two interceptions.

What's been equally important for Arizona (3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U) thus far has been its defense. It has given up only 15.3 points per game, the third-fewest in the league.

As for the Rams (3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U), the expectation that Jeff Fisher would make an impact has proven true thus far. Their two wins equal their typical season of recent years. St. Louis has won both of its home games outright, and hasn't been a pushover on the road.

According to ESPN Insider's PickCenter, the Cardinals are a 58.5 percent consensus pick by the public to the surprise of … no one. Wait, the betting public likes the undefeated team in an essentially pick'em game? Nothing could be more predictable.

But who do the wiseguys think will cover?

Let's get some analysis from bookmaker Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton and Paul Bessire from predictionmachine.com.

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Kornegay says: "We opened this game at pick 'em with a total of 38. Early money has shown up on the Cardinals moving it to its current line of minus-1, but we don't expect this to move much leading up to kickoff. The Arizona bandwagon is not quite full yet and not popular enough to drive this line upwards. We expect this line to fluctuate from minus-1 to minus-1.5 before kickoff. The total has moved up half a point to 38.5. It's one of the lowest totals we've seen so far and expect that to remain close to that opening number."

Prediction: Line will stay with Cardinals as small favorite, total will remain at 38.5

Bessire says: "Sharps knew both of these teams had value before the year. There are five outright wins as underdogs between these two teams already, which is impressive. Even in an expected low-scoring, defensive battle as this should be, with a line that is hovering between minus-1.5 and pick 'em, this selection is pretty straight forward. Essentially, we have to figure out who is going to win.

"Despite the fact that St. Louis has home-field advantage, a kicker who has been one of the most impactful rookies in the league thus far and a similarly built roster to its opponent in this game, Arizona is the pick because of its advantages in just about every facet of the game.

"The Cardinals have a major advantage in the pass rush, where Arizona has a nine percent sack rate (sacks/opponent pass plays), which is fourth-best in the league, and St. Louis has just a four percent sack rate. Arizona also has advantages at quarterback, the skill positions, in the return game and on the offensive line.

"There's some concern over the health of Arizona's starting defensive lineman Darnell Dockett. To err on the cautious side, we simulated this game without Dockett in the lineup and the news is still good for Arizona.

"In 50,000 simulations of this game by the Predictalator at PredictionMachine.com, Arizona wins 59.5 percent of the time and by an average score of 21-17. I love when the projected score actually sounds like a football score. As minus-1.5 point favorites, the Cardinals cover the spread 55.6 percent of the time. To be profitable against a minus-110 line, a bettor must be at least 52.4 percent accurate, so almost 56 percent confidence is noteworthy. The total (38.5) is appropriate and unplayable. Neither side covers greater than 52.4 percent."


The pick: Cardinals
 

Faceplant

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X said:
Arizona also has advantages at quarterback.....

:rofl: :what: :hehe:
 

Angry Ram

Captain RAmerica Original Rammer
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Soooooooooooo....

They are basing their pick off computer simulations? What they play Madden all day?

They have similar rosters, but Arizona's is better?

Umm ok.

You have to pay to read this sort of stuff BTW.
 

RamsSince1969

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Sir, I "bet" you purchased Facebook stock at the IPO price too thinking it was a safe bet. Not everything on paper performs like you expect. Rams 23, Cards 20.
 

libertadrocks

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Jun 24, 2010
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Well the first half of the article has some merit. A lot of bettors will watch who the big money favors, similar to how some traders play the options market. The adjustment of the spread suggests the big money is on the cards. Just sayin

The second half, composed of computer simulations and erroneous stats, is BS.