Bernie Bytes: Why Rams rehired Williams

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Alan

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http://www.stltoday.com/sports/colu...cle_2bc0a3eb-78a2-5046-ac9f-6b4bb9a85d0f.html
"So why did head coach Jeff Fisher bring back Gregg Williams to run the Rams' defense? Now that we've gotten past the weirdness of it all, let's look at it from a pure football standpoint.

The first easy and obvious answer: Williams should make the Rams' defense better. Fisher wouldn't have made the move, otherwise.

The second answer, which we covered on the day Williams was rehired: they are football brothers. They share the same philosophy of defense. Fisher trusts Williams, and Williams knows what Fisher wants. It's a comfortable fit — providing that Fisher and Williams have truly worked out their personal differences.

The more specific football reason, at least from what I am thinking: Fisher wants more pressure on the quarterback. And he almost certainly wants more creativity in blitz packages.

If we really want to narrow it down... if Fisher sees it the way I think he does, the Rams need to bring more heat on third down.

I'm going to offer some numbers that illustrate what we're talking about here. I know the numbers bore some folks, but I prefer dishing out fact-based analysis points rather than assume things that may or may not be untrue.

* In 2012, Fisher's first season as Rams' boss, his defense blitzed on 71 third-down passing attempts. The game-day calls were made by Blake Williams, Gregg's son, who served as de facto defensive coordinator during Gregg's NFL suspension. Blake — disliked by fellow coaches — was fired after the season.


* Last season Fisher brought in Tim Walton as DC. This was a move up for Walton, who had been working as a position coach in Detroit. (Defensive backs.) For whatever reason — inexperience, passivity, etc. — the Rams were more conservative in attacking. They blitzed on only 46 third-down passing plays, and not very effectively at that.

* In 2013, opposing quarterbacks completed 29 of 46 against the Rams' third-down blitzes for 478 yards, five touchdowns and a passer rating of 125.1.

* In 2012, with young Williams dialing up the heat, quarterbacks completed less than 50 percent of their third-down throws when blitzed and had a passer rating of 85.5.

* Perhaps Walton blitzed less because the Rams were getting good results from a four-man pass rush led by the berserk Robert Quinn. There may be some truth to that; despite fewer blitzes the Rams finished with 53 sacks, one more than in 2012. But I don't think that explains everything. The Rams defense fell off in its third-down performance in 2013, compared to 2012. (The third-down passer rating against them in 2012 was 88; last year that jumped to 101.)

So what does this have to do with Williams' reentry?

Until the Bountygate scandal, Gregg Williams built his name and reputation on being among the finest and most innovative blitz designers in the NFL. He's had strong success as a third-down obstructionist.

Perfect? Hardly. Not counting his time as head coach in Buffalo or his 2013 job as a consultant in Tennessee, Williams has logged 12 seasons as an NFL defensive coordinator. He's had a few leaky defenses along the way. And a couple of terrible defenses. But all in all, this has been one of the most respected DC's out there.

And the Williams' speciality is third down.

Namely, third-down blitzes.

During Super Bowl Week, I put an hour or so aside to do some research with help from the data at STATS LLC. I wanted to see Williams' third-down blitzing record during his 12 years as a coordinator.

* In his final two seasons (1999 and 2000) as the DC for Fisher at Tennessee, Williams' unit ranked fifth and 14th, respectively, in the league for most third-down blitzes. But that doesn't tell the entire story; in those two seasons combined the Titans had 49 sacks on third-down blitzes, with nine interceptions. His 2000 defense belted quarterbacks to a 61.7 passer rating when the Titans blitzed on third down.

* Williams was Washington's DC from 2004 through 2007. The corresponding league rankings for most third-down blitz attempts: first, fifth, eighth, and 12th. In 2004 and 2005 combined, the Redskins had 48 sacks on third-down blitzes. They had another double-digit total (13) in 2007. They also intercepted 25 passes when blitzing on third down over the four seasons. And the passer rating against the Redskins on third-down blitzes was under 77 in three of the four seasons.

* Williams ran Jacksonville's defense in 2008. The Jags ranked 19th in the amount of third-down dogs, but got 12 sacks and five interceptions from them.

* In New Orleans from 2009 through 2011, Williams' dialed up the third-down blitzes even more. The Saints blitzed on third down more frequently than any team in 2009 and 2011 and were fourth in 2010. Over the three seasons the third-down blitzes helped rack up 63 sacks and 25 interceptions.

* The 2009 Saints won the Super Bowl, and this was Williams' masterpiece. When his defense blitzed on third down they messed up the quarterbacks for 18 sacks, 15 interceptions and a passer rating of 60.3.

Obviously, Jeff Fisher wants more disruption and damage from his defense in defending the passing game.

Last season the Rams blitzed — all downs — only 143 times, the 10th-lowest number in the NFL.

Now contrast that to what we saw from Williams and New Orleans over those three seasons: anaverage of 285 blitzes per year.

Imagine the pressure that the Rams can apply now that Williams is back to draw up all of those mad blitzes.

Not only will offensive lines have to handle Robert Quinn, Chris Long, and William Hayes — but the blockers will be under additional duress in dealing with all of the crazy stuff that Williams brings at them.

What if the Rams draft defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and put him in the mix? What could Williams do with four fresh defensive ends that can get after quarterbacks?

Williams' fondness for blitzing also could mean more pass-rush sorties for second-year outside linebacker Alec Ogletree, or could heighten the Rams' interest in drafting UCLA outside 'backerAnthony Barr. Last season Barr had 10 sacks, five forced fumbles and 20 tackles for losses — though some scouts believe he's a better fit for a 3-4 defense. (The Rams run a 4-3.)

But the fast (4.6 speed) and furious Barr can definitely bring the pressure from the outside. And it boggles the mind to think of a Rams defense that can attack the flanks with Quinn, Long, Ogletree and Barr. And all of that perimeter speed would work well in defending mobile quarterbacks Colin Kaepernick (49ers) and Russell Wilson (Seahawks.)"

I think my dad wrote something about that red part. An outstanding OLB who could pass defend and contain running QBs would look really good alongside Tree and JL. Obviates the need for replacing him on 3rd down.

Or something like that. I agree with that. Although we both would prefer a more traditional 4-3 OLB like Shazier or Van Noy.
 

BigRamFan

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I hope your Dad is doing well. Please let him know he is missed here.
 

-X-

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Here's the condensed reason:

"Because that was his desire the minute he became Head Coach, but the league put the kibosh on it."
 

CGI_Ram

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I wonder if the Rams have interest in Barr?

That's not the first read suggesting so.
 

-X-

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I wonder if the Rams have interest in Barr?

That's not the first read suggesting so.
Anything is possible. I expect Ogletree to take a huge leap forward now, and another speed rusher at Will would be insane in passing situations.
 

CGI_Ram

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Anything is possible. I expect Ogletree to take a huge leap forward now, and another speed rusher at Will would be insane in passing situations.

Tend to agree.

It's not the pick some would expect, but....
 

DR RAM

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Anything is possible. I expect Ogletree to take a huge leap forward now, and another speed rusher at Will would be insane in passing situations.
Completely insane, and could make more sense than Clowney, especially if we could obtain more talent in a trade down.
 

-X-

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Completely insane, and could make more sense than Clowney, especially if we could obtain more talent in a trade down.
Yeah. If they were able to fortify WILL, FS and DT with the first 3 picks, I'd be pretty happy. I think we can work with what we have on offense right now. Re-sign Saffold, get a swing tackle and another guard, and we're good to go. Especially if Jones beefs up and comes on strong. I like Stacy/Cunningham/Pead at RB, and our receivers just need to put it all together. The talent is already there.
 

mr.stlouis

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Yes the numbers bored the hell out of me, Bernie lol. It was obvious our third down success rate took a very noticeable hit last year and the numbers do back that. Third down was suppose to be our strength last year.

I love the hire of Greg Williams. Our defense is built for a ferocious style of play. I beleive Williams is a great fit to maximize our talent. I love Bernie's comment of Williams being one of the best for dialing up blitzes pre-Bounty Gate. I can only imagine what he could pull off with Clowney replacing Langford on third downs.
 

Ram_of_Old

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Williams will make out D even better. Now, if Same comes back strong, we could be in business!
 

tonyl711

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I could see us taking Barr if we trade back to 8 or so, if he picks up the NFL game well, you just solidified your LB corp for at least 3 or 4 years. go Safety at #13 and you are looking pretty good on D, but if Watkins is still there at 8 I think we go Watkins instead.
 

wolfman84

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Although I wouldn't necessarily be disappointed in front loaded defensive draft, I think the offense has farther to go and needs more attention. And of all the offensive groups, I'ld love to see the oline solidified for now and the future. While I'ld love to see Saffold resigned, I'm starting to have my doubts. It seems the team most familiar with the player is the one most concerned with his limitations and the ones looking in only see the upside and none of the blemishes. Four cases in point: Amendola, Cook, Jake Long, Jackson. I guess that could be said of every free agent not retained by their former team but I'm starting to believe someone will pay LOT money for someone we see as a ROG. Not optimistic. For all the talk of adding a bookend OLB to pair with Ogletree, I would ask you if they'ld even be on the field in those 3rd down situations we're talking about. Chances are you'ld have a nickel package on the field. Food for thought.
 

Blue and Gold

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Williams best asset will be experience and knowledge . . . and he can teach his schemes . . .and if they work great, but it's not like he cannot coach a base defense . . . so if we can get good rush with 4 or 5 and get off the field on 3rd down . . .all the better, but having those exotics in your back pocket can help.

I think what we need on 3rd down is a ballhawking FS . . . which we have not had since OJ. Sure, I'd love to see upgrades at CB, RLB, nickle, too . . . but the #1 thing, to me, is a good FS who can play middle of the field, or halfs, or can help double guys like Fitz, Calvin or Andre or AJ or Julio.