Another Analytical Approach to Projecting College Quarterbacks Success in the NFL.

[RAMpage28]

http://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2016/04/how-to-tell-if-your-team-just-drafted-a-qb-bust/

Things look bleak for Goff and even more so for Wentz.

Not saying I am agreeing with this, but it's a different way of looking at things and acts as a counterpoint to a lot of optimism on here. Reminds us that this is still a huge risk.

 

[DaveFan'51]

The Draft always has been pretty much of a "Crap-Shoot" With everyone making educated Guesses on Players. Nothing New!
THis is why I bet on Coaches/ GM's who have been around a while!

 

[Ram65]

No draft pick comes with a guarantee. Things that aren't in the numbers include:

1. General lack of talent on the Cal team.
2. From 1-11 as true freshman to 8-5 Bowl Win as A Jr.
3. Advanced pocket skills

I wonder what his stats would have been had he went to Stanford. He has shown more than enough to skip his SR. year and move to the NFL. Time will tell how he does.

 

[lordbannon]

Am I the only one who doesn't see any actual analysis? I see a bunch of stats, with "in case A this stat meant X and in case B it didnt". Maybe the "analysis" is how rookie year AV may or may not correspond to future success? Which means that won't show up until next year.

They reference stats vs things like strength of schedule, but don't show any actual SoS data except a few points that back up their hindsight. This is more of just a stat dump of college careers and tells us nothing, other than that Jamarcus Russell was terrible. Except that one year in college where the stats say he wasnt (but he still was)

 

[Mackeyser]

Yeah... there's this thing in statistics called correlation...

reading the definition of AV (Approximate Value) and how it's defined for defensive players... holy moses, it's pure hokum.

I officially deem that AV to be a worthless stat...