Alec Ogletree and Advanced Analytics

[12intheBox]

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/tools/vizualizations/position-leaders

This is how you know that the 'grades' that individual players get are for the most part worthless. Alec has had a few nice games but we all know he isn't far and away the best LB in football, don't we?

 

[JonRam99]

Yeah..... saw this on another thread, not sure how this happens. BTW, they have R. Quinn, A. Donald & EJ Gaines as middling on their "chart".

 

[jrry32]

Yea, this is precisely why advanced analytics don't work in football. There have not been many weeks this year where I wasn't yelling at my computer screen for Alec Ogletree to get off the field. He's rebounded the past two weeks...getting the scheme down might be the difference but he played terribly for the most of the year.

And while I'm on this subject, I don't like PFF's grades either.(even if they're more accurate towards Ogletree)

 

[RaminExile]

Wonder if he's scoring so high because he forces quite a few fumbles. It might be skewing his overall grade too much - but it is a real good skill he's got stripping the ball.

 

[TheDYVKX]

The thing with Ogletree is that when he's on his game, he has a monster week with the way they grade, and with advanced analytics that skyrockets his grades. These past 2 weeks he's looked phenomenal and that helps his grade a lot, even though he looked like dog crap for the 7 weeks prior.

I don't know the context of these and their time frame, but if it's just based on the last 2 weeks, he's a top 10 LB in football easy. Off the whole year though? Yeah, good luck selling that one.

 

[Speeps]

LOL

 

[RamsOfCastamere]

JJ Watt is even worse, he's good but not THAT good.

Also, P.Peterson and Sherman are at the bottom of the CBs :snicker:

 

[lockdnram21]

Ej Gaines is tied with Revis and Jimmy smith as the 11th best cb

 

[Alan]

12intheBox with something impressive:
http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/tools/vizualizations/position-leaders

This is how you know that the 'grades' that individual players get are for the most part worthless. Alec has had a few nice games but we all know he isn't far and away the best LB in football, don't we?

I couldn't read a single word of that but I gave you a like anyway because it's impressive looking.

 

[Fatbot]

Wonder if he's scoring so high because he forces quite a few fumbles. It might be skewing his overall grade too much - but it is a real good skill he's got stripping the ball.

Yes, also in addition to leading NFL LBs in forced fumbles, he is #3 in passes defensed and tied for 6th in INTs. So he's made a lot of big impact plays.

Note two problems: first, WPA and EPA only track positive plays. They say nothing about missed chances or times when AO could have made a play but didn't. So we as fans clearly see where AO is whiffing, but this grading does not.

Also, the pasted graph, and the graph function at the website, is apparently broken. AO is not supposed to be the highest upper-right. For some reason the data is screwed up for guys supposed to be higher than him, like C.Mosley, Peppers, Levy, L.David, etc. AO should be more towards the middle of the top 32.

Still this is a lot higher than most Rams fans would place him since we also grade on seeing the negatives. Also, note that the Rams defense overall is very poor (24th), so the rare times positive scores are given to the defense it's almost always the strong run defense, and thus usually being credited to either a AO or JL tackle.

 

[-X-]

DO NOT QUESTION THE CHART!!

 

[Boffo97]

DO NOT QUESTION THE CHART!!

For the chart needs teenagers with attitudes!

 

[TheDYVKX]

JJ Watt is even worse, he's good but not THAT good.

Also, P.Peterson and Sherman are at the bottom of the CBs :snicker:

Yes he is. Watt is unbelievably better than any other player or competition you can compare him with. Including Quinn.

 

[RaminExile]

Yeah but Peterson and Sherman have actually been pretty poor in my eyes. Ogletree's been playing well - the problem has been that he was detailed to contain Russell Wilson and Kapernick and he just failed terribly at it. Did really badly giving up the edge - and that's kind of distorted a lot of the good things he's been doing in Ram's fans eyes. He's young remember (still only 23 I think? Unbelievable almost!)

 

[jjab360]

I don't know what kind of analytics those are supposed to be, but they just lost all credibility.

 

[Stranger]

DO NOT QUESTION THE CHART!!

 

[RamsOfCastamere]

Yes he is. Watt is unbelievably better than any other player or competition you can compare him with. Including Quinn.

There is no question that Watt is the best in the league, but I'm talking about the scale. Compare the difference between Romo and Rodgers/Manning to the difference between Watt and the next DE.