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http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/sto...n-bay-packers-real-big-change-needed-nfl-2016
After one of the worst games of his career on Sunday night, Green Bay Packersquarterback Aaron Rodgers was quick to point out that this season is only two games old. "Well, it's Week 2. There's always a lot of work to be done," he said.
The problem with that statement is that Green Bay had an entire offseason to fix last year's broken offense, which finished 21st in weighted DVOA. Though star wideout Jordy Nelson has returned, the offense looks awfully similar to the unit that struggled through the final dozen games in 2015. The Packers rank 25th in offensive DVOA, and 26th in passing offense this season. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, explained here.)
Clearly, this is about more than just one bad night in Minnesota against a tough defense. This has been a 14-game slump for one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history during what should still be his prime. What can history teach us about when the slump might end? How likely is it Rodgers can return to his past glory?
The slump: Real and spectacular
Since becoming Green Bay's starter in 2008, Rodgers has enjoyed one of the greatest runs of statistical success ever seen at the position. His 103.8 passer rating is the highest in NFL history, yet Rodgers has not hit 100.0 in any of his past 14 games, including the playoffs. The three previous longest droughts of his career were just four games each.
The slump started with Rodgers passing for only 77 yards in a 29-10 blowout loss in Denver on Nov. 1, 2015. Sure, that defense has been the best in the NFL, but literally every other team and quarterback have done more to challenge Wade Phillips' defense than Rodgers and the Packers did that night. Rodgers has not thrown for 300 yards since putting the ball up a career-high 61 times against Detroit in a Week 10 loss last season.
Yards can be hollow, but we have plenty of efficiency metrics that also show Rodgers' decline when accounting for important context. His 64.1 Total QBR in 2015 is the lowest of his career, and he has minus-10 passing DYAR in his past 14 games. For reference, in Rodgers' 2014 MVP season, he had 82.0 QBR and 1,564 DYAR. Rodgers is also completing only 60.3 percent of his passes in the past two seasons after 65.9 percent from 2008 to 2014. His passing plus-minus (explained here), which adjusts for drops and how far the ball was thrown, was a career low in 2015, and his receivers actually had their lowest drop rate of his career.
Advanced metrics and charting data aside, Rodgers has severely declined in one of the simplest, but most predictive measures of success in football: yards per attempt (YPA). Through 116 regular-season games, Rodgers averaged 8.22 YPA, the third-highest mark in NFL history. In his past 14 games, Rodgers has averaged 5.95 YPA, which is close to the lowest mark in NFL history -- Joey Harrington's 5.79 YPA.
Incredibly, Rodgers has been held under 6.0 YPA in six of his past seven games. This is virtually unheard of for a good quarterback, let alone a future Hall of Famer. The NFL's average YPA has crept up to 7.3 since last season, but Rodgers has cleared 7.0 in only two of his past 14 games. One of those games was in Detroit (Week 13) where he completed a 61-yard Hail Mary touchdown after a controversial facemask penalty extended the game. Without that play, Rodgers would have finished with 6.06 YPA, and another Green Bay loss.
That is also why the slump is significant. With a depressed passing game, the Packers are not scoring as many points and have gone 6-8 in their past 14 games -- not up to par for a team with seven consecutive playoff appearances. The longer Rodgers' streak of subpar play continues, the more likely Green Bay's playoff streak will end.
NFL history: A most unusual slump
Great players have always experienced slumps, but when you look at the best of the best throughout history, the length and timing looks most peculiar for Rodgers.
Hall of Fame quarterbacks generally decline because of age or injury, and often both together. The great Johnny Unitas was never the same dominant quarterback after suffering a serious arm injury in the 1968 preseason, at age 35. Peyton Manning's lengthy prime ended only after his body broke down at 39. Joe Montana's 1986 season stands out for its eight touchdowns, nine interceptions and career-low 80.7 passer rating. Montana, however, suffered a severe back injury in Week 1 and wasn't 100 percent healthy when he returned in November.
Neither age nor injury is a good explanation for Rodgers' slump. He won't turn 33 until December, so it really is too early for Father Time to come collecting as he so often does. And Rodgers has appeared only once on the injury report in the past two seasons, because of a sore right shoulder in Week 11 of last season.
Watching Rodgers play, he certainly seems to be physically fine. He still makes some spectacular, athletic plays. We just have not seen that consistent ease at which he used to operate, with accurate deep throws and well-timed back-shoulder passes. Success just looks so difficult for this passing offense, even though the cast around Rodgers has remained much the same personnel. Nelson's 2015 injury aside, Rodgers has been working with a familiar cast from his 2014 MVP campaign, including Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Richard Rodgers and most of the same offensive line. It's not like Green Bay has become a barren wasteland for offensive talent or dumped its coaching staff.
For years, Rodgers succeeded with a minimal running game and inferior pass protection. Only a select few can succeed in those circumstances, including some of Rodgers' lofty peers. Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger both had breakout seasons in 2004, and they are still going strong today despite a series of personnel changes. Roethlisberger had short slumps in 2006 and 2008 that were health-related, including an emergency appendectomy, sprained AC joint and multiple concussions. Another notable peer is Tom Brady, who had a rough opening month to the 2014 season. That short slump ended quickly, however, after one brutal performance in prime time against the Chiefs, when Bill Belichick whipped out the "We're on to Cincinnati" line. Brady shredded the Bengals the next week and went about his usual business, ending that season with a fourth Super Bowl win.
There are a few cases of excellent quarterbacks getting back to a high level of play after an off year (or several). Green Bay fans won't like to hear this, but these players had to change teams to refresh their careers. Fran Tarkenton's final season with the Giants was the worst he had, but a return to Minnesota in 1972 led to three Super Bowl appearances and an MVP award in 1975. Minnesota was also kind to Randall Cunningham, who after falling out of favor in Philadelphia had a career year in 1998 for a record-setting offense. Kurt Warner has a huge gap in his resume from 2002-2006, partially due to injury, but wrote a great final act to his career as Arizona's starter, almost winning Super Bowl XLIII. The Cardinals, under Bruce Arians, have also resurrected the career of Carson Palmer, who has played at an MVP level since last season, when he was 36.
Rodgers is not leaving Green Bay any time soon, and if his slump does mirror an all-time great, then it is Brett Favre: three-time MVP, Green Bay legend, and the man Rodgers replaced. In 1999, his eighth season as a starter, the 30-year-old Favre lost Mike Holmgren as his coach. The Packers struggled to a 8-8 finish as Favre had to carry the team with a league-high 595 pass attempts, and he dipped below 7.0 YPA for the first time in five years. Favre's 2000 season was similarly mediocre, and the Packers missed the playoffs again. Favre finally returned to Pro Bowl form in 2001. He also had a smaller slump after the team drafted Rodgers in 2005, only to be reinvigorated by Mike McCarthy's adjustments to the offense for a great 2007, his last season with the Packers.
Rodgers, now in his ninth year as a starter, is at the same point of his career as Favre in 1999. It should be noted that while Favre had down seasons in 1999-2000, he still flashed moments of MVP greatness, including six games with a 100.0 passer rating, eight 300-yard passing efforts, and four games with three-plus touchdown passes. Favre surpassed 7.0 YPA in 14 out of 32 games, and still ranked ninth in passing DYAR in both seasons. His decline was not as sudden or severe as what Rodgers has had, but does this mean that Rodgers, like Favre, needs a new coach to sort things out?
Where does Rodgers go from here?
Perhaps this is the week in which Rodgers lights up Detroit for four touchdowns. If not, then it should be an interesting bye week for Green Bay. Last season, it was after the bye week when this slump started. Fortunately, the schedule may help Rodgers get right soon; Green Bay is about to play four straight home games against defenses ranked 17th or lower in Football Outsiders DVOA so far. It is also a good sign that Nelson looks healthy. If the two can rebuild their excellent chemistry, that could bring the big plays back to this offense, raising Rodgers' YPA back to an acceptable level.
Rodgers will have to make due with the roster around him, because we know the Packers would be about the last team expected to make a shocking trade. General manager Ted Thompson strongly believes in the draft, and maybe that is where he has to go next year to find Rodgers another starting wide receiver or tight end. These are the positions in which Green Bay has lost the most talent over the years; Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley and James Jones are all gone. Rodgers went from having the league's deepest receiving corps to one that collapsed without Nelson healthy. He has not established similar timing with his other receivers, and the offense has become too reliant on sandlot football, broken plays, drawing the defense offsides for free plays, and Rodgers' scrambles. Connecting on two Hail Mary touchdowns in a season is sweet, but it's not a sustainable strategy.
History really bears out that for an extended slump to end, a top quarterback needs improved health, a coaching change, or a new team. Only one of those options is realistic for Rodgers, though McCarthy is the only head coach he has known as a starter. McCarthy surrendered play-calling duties to Tom Clements to start 2015, but took them back during the season, only to see no improvement. If anything, the offense has gotten worse since December. Without a turnaround, a coaching change may be in order. A fresh mind and set of eyes could help Rodgers improve his mechanics, and run an offense that is better suited to the team's current talent level instead of what worked five years ago.
Even all-time greats like Michael Jordan and Wayne Gretzky had to adapt their skills as they aged. It is not a bold statement to say Rodgers' best days are behind him. Statistically, he probably will never top what he did in 2011 or 2014, and that is fine. Lest we forget, he was really that good in those years.
The Rodgers of the past 14 games has not been very good, however, and it would be a shame if he never snapped out of this. History suggests he will eventually, but it may be time to accept that, much like Favre without Holmgren, the Rodgers of 2016 and beyond is not going to be as great as the player we once watched.
After one of the worst games of his career on Sunday night, Green Bay Packersquarterback Aaron Rodgers was quick to point out that this season is only two games old. "Well, it's Week 2. There's always a lot of work to be done," he said.
The problem with that statement is that Green Bay had an entire offseason to fix last year's broken offense, which finished 21st in weighted DVOA. Though star wideout Jordy Nelson has returned, the offense looks awfully similar to the unit that struggled through the final dozen games in 2015. The Packers rank 25th in offensive DVOA, and 26th in passing offense this season. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, explained here.)
Clearly, this is about more than just one bad night in Minnesota against a tough defense. This has been a 14-game slump for one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history during what should still be his prime. What can history teach us about when the slump might end? How likely is it Rodgers can return to his past glory?
The slump: Real and spectacular
Since becoming Green Bay's starter in 2008, Rodgers has enjoyed one of the greatest runs of statistical success ever seen at the position. His 103.8 passer rating is the highest in NFL history, yet Rodgers has not hit 100.0 in any of his past 14 games, including the playoffs. The three previous longest droughts of his career were just four games each.
The slump started with Rodgers passing for only 77 yards in a 29-10 blowout loss in Denver on Nov. 1, 2015. Sure, that defense has been the best in the NFL, but literally every other team and quarterback have done more to challenge Wade Phillips' defense than Rodgers and the Packers did that night. Rodgers has not thrown for 300 yards since putting the ball up a career-high 61 times against Detroit in a Week 10 loss last season.
Yards can be hollow, but we have plenty of efficiency metrics that also show Rodgers' decline when accounting for important context. His 64.1 Total QBR in 2015 is the lowest of his career, and he has minus-10 passing DYAR in his past 14 games. For reference, in Rodgers' 2014 MVP season, he had 82.0 QBR and 1,564 DYAR. Rodgers is also completing only 60.3 percent of his passes in the past two seasons after 65.9 percent from 2008 to 2014. His passing plus-minus (explained here), which adjusts for drops and how far the ball was thrown, was a career low in 2015, and his receivers actually had their lowest drop rate of his career.
Advanced metrics and charting data aside, Rodgers has severely declined in one of the simplest, but most predictive measures of success in football: yards per attempt (YPA). Through 116 regular-season games, Rodgers averaged 8.22 YPA, the third-highest mark in NFL history. In his past 14 games, Rodgers has averaged 5.95 YPA, which is close to the lowest mark in NFL history -- Joey Harrington's 5.79 YPA.
Incredibly, Rodgers has been held under 6.0 YPA in six of his past seven games. This is virtually unheard of for a good quarterback, let alone a future Hall of Famer. The NFL's average YPA has crept up to 7.3 since last season, but Rodgers has cleared 7.0 in only two of his past 14 games. One of those games was in Detroit (Week 13) where he completed a 61-yard Hail Mary touchdown after a controversial facemask penalty extended the game. Without that play, Rodgers would have finished with 6.06 YPA, and another Green Bay loss.
That is also why the slump is significant. With a depressed passing game, the Packers are not scoring as many points and have gone 6-8 in their past 14 games -- not up to par for a team with seven consecutive playoff appearances. The longer Rodgers' streak of subpar play continues, the more likely Green Bay's playoff streak will end.
NFL history: A most unusual slump
Great players have always experienced slumps, but when you look at the best of the best throughout history, the length and timing looks most peculiar for Rodgers.
Hall of Fame quarterbacks generally decline because of age or injury, and often both together. The great Johnny Unitas was never the same dominant quarterback after suffering a serious arm injury in the 1968 preseason, at age 35. Peyton Manning's lengthy prime ended only after his body broke down at 39. Joe Montana's 1986 season stands out for its eight touchdowns, nine interceptions and career-low 80.7 passer rating. Montana, however, suffered a severe back injury in Week 1 and wasn't 100 percent healthy when he returned in November.
Neither age nor injury is a good explanation for Rodgers' slump. He won't turn 33 until December, so it really is too early for Father Time to come collecting as he so often does. And Rodgers has appeared only once on the injury report in the past two seasons, because of a sore right shoulder in Week 11 of last season.
Watching Rodgers play, he certainly seems to be physically fine. He still makes some spectacular, athletic plays. We just have not seen that consistent ease at which he used to operate, with accurate deep throws and well-timed back-shoulder passes. Success just looks so difficult for this passing offense, even though the cast around Rodgers has remained much the same personnel. Nelson's 2015 injury aside, Rodgers has been working with a familiar cast from his 2014 MVP campaign, including Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Richard Rodgers and most of the same offensive line. It's not like Green Bay has become a barren wasteland for offensive talent or dumped its coaching staff.
For years, Rodgers succeeded with a minimal running game and inferior pass protection. Only a select few can succeed in those circumstances, including some of Rodgers' lofty peers. Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger both had breakout seasons in 2004, and they are still going strong today despite a series of personnel changes. Roethlisberger had short slumps in 2006 and 2008 that were health-related, including an emergency appendectomy, sprained AC joint and multiple concussions. Another notable peer is Tom Brady, who had a rough opening month to the 2014 season. That short slump ended quickly, however, after one brutal performance in prime time against the Chiefs, when Bill Belichick whipped out the "We're on to Cincinnati" line. Brady shredded the Bengals the next week and went about his usual business, ending that season with a fourth Super Bowl win.
There are a few cases of excellent quarterbacks getting back to a high level of play after an off year (or several). Green Bay fans won't like to hear this, but these players had to change teams to refresh their careers. Fran Tarkenton's final season with the Giants was the worst he had, but a return to Minnesota in 1972 led to three Super Bowl appearances and an MVP award in 1975. Minnesota was also kind to Randall Cunningham, who after falling out of favor in Philadelphia had a career year in 1998 for a record-setting offense. Kurt Warner has a huge gap in his resume from 2002-2006, partially due to injury, but wrote a great final act to his career as Arizona's starter, almost winning Super Bowl XLIII. The Cardinals, under Bruce Arians, have also resurrected the career of Carson Palmer, who has played at an MVP level since last season, when he was 36.
Rodgers is not leaving Green Bay any time soon, and if his slump does mirror an all-time great, then it is Brett Favre: three-time MVP, Green Bay legend, and the man Rodgers replaced. In 1999, his eighth season as a starter, the 30-year-old Favre lost Mike Holmgren as his coach. The Packers struggled to a 8-8 finish as Favre had to carry the team with a league-high 595 pass attempts, and he dipped below 7.0 YPA for the first time in five years. Favre's 2000 season was similarly mediocre, and the Packers missed the playoffs again. Favre finally returned to Pro Bowl form in 2001. He also had a smaller slump after the team drafted Rodgers in 2005, only to be reinvigorated by Mike McCarthy's adjustments to the offense for a great 2007, his last season with the Packers.
Rodgers, now in his ninth year as a starter, is at the same point of his career as Favre in 1999. It should be noted that while Favre had down seasons in 1999-2000, he still flashed moments of MVP greatness, including six games with a 100.0 passer rating, eight 300-yard passing efforts, and four games with three-plus touchdown passes. Favre surpassed 7.0 YPA in 14 out of 32 games, and still ranked ninth in passing DYAR in both seasons. His decline was not as sudden or severe as what Rodgers has had, but does this mean that Rodgers, like Favre, needs a new coach to sort things out?
Where does Rodgers go from here?
Perhaps this is the week in which Rodgers lights up Detroit for four touchdowns. If not, then it should be an interesting bye week for Green Bay. Last season, it was after the bye week when this slump started. Fortunately, the schedule may help Rodgers get right soon; Green Bay is about to play four straight home games against defenses ranked 17th or lower in Football Outsiders DVOA so far. It is also a good sign that Nelson looks healthy. If the two can rebuild their excellent chemistry, that could bring the big plays back to this offense, raising Rodgers' YPA back to an acceptable level.
Rodgers will have to make due with the roster around him, because we know the Packers would be about the last team expected to make a shocking trade. General manager Ted Thompson strongly believes in the draft, and maybe that is where he has to go next year to find Rodgers another starting wide receiver or tight end. These are the positions in which Green Bay has lost the most talent over the years; Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley and James Jones are all gone. Rodgers went from having the league's deepest receiving corps to one that collapsed without Nelson healthy. He has not established similar timing with his other receivers, and the offense has become too reliant on sandlot football, broken plays, drawing the defense offsides for free plays, and Rodgers' scrambles. Connecting on two Hail Mary touchdowns in a season is sweet, but it's not a sustainable strategy.
History really bears out that for an extended slump to end, a top quarterback needs improved health, a coaching change, or a new team. Only one of those options is realistic for Rodgers, though McCarthy is the only head coach he has known as a starter. McCarthy surrendered play-calling duties to Tom Clements to start 2015, but took them back during the season, only to see no improvement. If anything, the offense has gotten worse since December. Without a turnaround, a coaching change may be in order. A fresh mind and set of eyes could help Rodgers improve his mechanics, and run an offense that is better suited to the team's current talent level instead of what worked five years ago.
Even all-time greats like Michael Jordan and Wayne Gretzky had to adapt their skills as they aged. It is not a bold statement to say Rodgers' best days are behind him. Statistically, he probably will never top what he did in 2011 or 2014, and that is fine. Lest we forget, he was really that good in those years.
The Rodgers of the past 14 games has not been very good, however, and it would be a shame if he never snapped out of this. History suggests he will eventually, but it may be time to accept that, much like Favre without Holmgren, the Rodgers of 2016 and beyond is not going to be as great as the player we once watched.
