A quick quarterly report on Rams' offense

[News Bot]

[wrapimg=right]http://i.imgur.com/LtSAG.png[/wrapimg]Mike Sando
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/ ... ms-offense


Just thought I'd share results from an ongoing conversation with St. Louis RamsSt. Louis Rams watchers @lannyosu and @squick4n regarding the team's offensive performance by quarter.

The initial question asked whether the Rams lacked offensive consistency early in games.

The Rams are best in first quarters relative to other quarters in terms of how many points they scored relative to expectations. The chart shows this as expected points added (EPA).

The Rams' offensive drives rank ninth in average distance (35.6 yards) for first quarters. The rankings are 29th for second quarters (24.1), 25th for third quarters (26.7) and 11th for fourth quarters (33.1).

However, the Rams rank only 29th in first-quarter time of possession (7:37 on average). Their averages increase as games progress, peaking at 8:26 in fourth quarters.

One theory we've kicked around recently holds that the Rams might be best when following a script early in games and when forced to play aggressively late, and that their play drops off in between as they go into a "play-not-to-lose" mode. It's just a theory.

 

[ramsince62]

This may sound a bit superficial, especially since it's not supported by anything other than opinion....but it seems to me that the pattern of early and late better (relative) performance occures as a result of exactly what they are...a very young team. They appear more successful early simply because of their athletic ability and the game plan. Then comes the early adjustments by the opponent where their inexperience and youth is exposed. But late, just the opposite occurs as their youth and conditioning begins to show. These guys are young and strong and towards the end of physical games, older teams begin to wear down, which is exactly when youth and physical resiliency as opposed to experience, begins to show itself.

Then again, I may be completely full of crap. :whome?:

 

[-X-]

This may sound a bit superficial, especially since it's not supported by anything other than opinion....but it seems to me that the pattern of early and late better (relative) performance occures as a result of exactly what they are...a very young team. They appear more successful early simply because of their athletic ability and the game plan. Then comes the early adjustments by the opponent where their inexperience and youth is exposed. But late, just the opposite occurs as their youth and conditioning begins to show. These guys are young and strong and towards the end of physical games, older teams begin to wear down, which is exactly when youth and physical resiliency as opposed to experience, begins to show itself.

Then again, I may be completely full of crap. :whome?:

Interesting take. Sounds plausible.

I think we'll see more consistent production when everyone gets on the same page too.

 

[CGI_Ram]

This may sound a bit superficial, especially since it's not supported by anything other than opinion....but it seems to me that the pattern of early and late better (relative) performance occures as a result of exactly what they are...a very young team. They appear more successful early simply because of their athletic ability and the game plan. Then comes the early adjustments by the opponent where their inexperience and youth is exposed. But late, just the opposite occurs as their youth and conditioning begins to show. These guys are young and strong and towards the end of physical games, older teams begin to wear down, which is exactly when youth and physical resiliency as opposed to experience, begins to show itself.

Then again, I may be completely full of crap. :whome?:

I'll take it. Certainly a reasonable theory.

One thing that can get lost in certain stats is the situational influence on the numbers. Like when a team gets down early, chances are they inflate the 4th quarter stats against teams protecting the lead.

With the Rams, that's probably not the case looking back. I suppose you could argue it happened twice; GB and Minn

 

[Faceplant]

Scripted plays in 1st quarter. More creative play calling + quick/no huddle offense to overcome deficit in 4th. Boom.