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By Chase Stewart
December 31, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/01/s...c-behind-every-super-bowl-contender.html?_r=1
Each of the 12 teams in the N.F.L. playoffs has a big strength or a big weakness, and each has a statistic to tell the tale.
Denver Broncos: Quarterback Curse
Can Peyton Manning break the hex? Only four quarterbacks — Tom Brady (2007), Rich Gannon (2002), Kurt Warner (2001) and Dan Marino (1984) — have played in a Super Bowl in the season in which they won the passing yards title, with none of the four winning the game. Since 1950, only Johnny Unitas in 1959 and George Blanda in 1961 (in the American Football League) have led their league in passing yards and won a
championship in the same season.
Some quarterback will become the first player to pull off this feat at a Super Bowl, and Manning seems as strong a candidate as any: he broke the single-season record for passing yards, a record that withstood a
review. The last player to be named the N.F.L.'s most valuable player and win the Super Bowl in the same season was Warner, in 1999. Manning will almost certainly be named the M.V.P. for the fifth time in his career, which means he can end two streaks with one Super Bowl title.
Players from the Seattle Seahawks huddled on the field during a game against the St. Louis Rams on Sunday. CreditJohn Froschauer/Associated Press
Seattle Seahawks: Allowing the Fewest Yards, Recording the Most Interceptions
Seattle allowed 2,752 passing yards this season. Every other team allowed at least 3,100. The Seahawks also had 28 interceptions; no other team recorded more than 23 picks. Seattle is just the fourth team to lead the league in both of those categories. Two of the first three teams won championships that season (the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 1963 Chicago Bears), while the third (the 1982 Miami Dolphins) lost in the Super Bowl.
Seattle was just one touchdown pass away from leading the league in that statistic, too. The Seahawks allowed only 16 touchdown passes this year, second to Tennessee (15). What makes Seattle’s 28 interceptions and 16 scoring passes allowed even more impressive is that, on average, the other 31 defenses this season averaged 15.3 interceptions and 25.4 touchdown passes allowed. The Seahawks’ defense also finished first in yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, yards per completion and passer rating. The Seahawks are a Super Bowl favorite because of the most dominant pass defense in the N.F.L. since at least the 2002 Buccaneers.
Philadelphia Eagles: A Bottom-Five Defense
The Eagles finished the regular season ranking 29th in yards allowed. Only four teams have won the Super Bowl when ranked outside the top 20 in that statistic: the 2001 Patriots (24th), the 2006 Colts (21st), the 2009 Saints (25th) and the 2011 Giants (27th). Although no team with a bottom-five defense has won the Super Bowl, two of the last four teams to win the title had defenses that ranked in the bottom eight. So, what gives?
Yards allowed is not a great way to measure a defense, and the Eagles’ defense is not as bad as that statistic would indicate. Philadelphia faced 670 pass attempts this season, 20 more than any other team in N.F.L. history (a record previously held by the 1995 Falcons). Pass attempts gain more yards than rush attempts, so a team that faces a record number of pass plays is going to allow a lot of yards. The Houston Texans saw just 484 pass attempts this year and ranked seventh in yards allowed — and posted the worst record in the N.F.L. Philadelphia’s pass defense is not good by any means, but the more important statistic is that the team ranked 22nd in net yards per pass allowed. The Eagles’ defense was also 12th best in red zone touchdown percentage and fourth best in yards per carry allowed, and it forced the third most turnovers in the league. The defense is not going to carry the team to the Super Bowl, but it is not a bottom-five unit, either.
Indianapolis Colts: Giant Killers Have Slain San Francisco, Denver and Seattle
Only six teams have ever beaten three teams in the regular season that won 12 or more games. Two of those teams, the 1990 Bills and the 1999 Titans, went on to play in the Super Bowl, while another, the 2003 Patriots, won the Super Bowl. The 2011 Ravens team that lost in the final seconds of the A.F.C. championship game, to New England, is also on the list. The 2002 Saints are the only outlier on the list: New Orleans swept the eventual Super Bowl champion Buccaneers but missed the playoffs.
Indianapolis, of course, is the sixth such team. Few teams run hot and cold like Indianapolis: countering those mammoth victories were embarrassing blowout losses to St. Louis, Arizona and Cincinnati. The Colts would be wise to put the game in Andrew Luck’s hands and waste fewer carries on Trent Richardson, but Indianapolis will not lack confidence entering the playoffs.
Green Bay Packers: Scored 417 points, Allowed 428
It would seem obvious that teams that are outscored in the regular season have no chance of winning the Super Bowl. But then the 2011 Giants happened. That season, the Giants were outscored by 6 points in the regular season, and they remain the only team even to make the Super Bowl after allowing more points than it scored. But in 2011 the Giants had the fourth hardest schedule, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics, which makes being outscored less surprising. That is not the case with this season’s Packers; Football Outsiders grades them as having the 24th toughest schedule.
When Aaron Rodgers returned on Sunday, it felt as if Green Bay’s Superman was back. But he cannot mask the fact that the offense is not as explosive as it used to be or patch the holes on defense. The other problem for the Packers is that the 49ers have been the team’s Kryptonite. Over the last three seasons, Rodgers has a 32-8 record against the rest of the N.F.L. and an 0-3 mark against San Francisco.
Cincinnati: Can Balance Rule the Day?
Only two teams ranked in the top seven in both points scored and points allowed: Cincinnati and Kansas City.
Only two teams this year ranked in the top 10 in points, points allowed, yards and yards allowed: the Bengals and the Saints.
The Bengals have not won a playoff game since 1990, the longest streak in the N.F.L., including back-to-back first-round losses to Houston. Fans have grown accustomed to strong regular seasons and early playoff exits from Cincinnati. To get to the Super Bowl, the Bengals would probably have to beat teams led by Philip Rivers, Tom Bradyand Peyton Manning. That’s a tall task, but the Bengals would have the best defense on the field in each game. If the elements cooperate — not an unreasonable assumption given January games in Ohio, Massachusetts and Colorado — Cincinnati could emerge from an A.F.C. playoff field featuring no other team that is strong on both sides of the ball.
Bonus Bengals statistic: Cincinnati was 4-0 against playoff teams this season, the best record among the 12 playoff teams.
San Francisco 49ers: Best Team Through Three Quarters
The 49ers followed an N.F.C. championship in 2012 with 1-2 and 6-4 starts this season. As a result, San Francisco is one of the more underappreciated 12-4 teams in recent memory. The 49ers have averaged 18.1 points through the first three quarters of every game, while allowing just 9.6; that 8.5-point differential is the best in the N.F.L. San Francisco has a habit of dominating teams early and letting up on them late: the 49ers have been outscored in the fourth quarters of games this season, 119-117. But will the team be more ruthless in the postseason?
Last year, Jim Harbaugh waited until the playoffs to unleash the full potential of the Pistol offense under Colin Kaepernick. Against the Packers, Kaepernick set an N.F.L. record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a game. San Francisco has operated conservatively this year, and easing up in the fourth quarter of games has hidden how dominant the 49ers can be. Does Harbaugh have another trick up his sleeve for January?
Kansas City Chiefs: Average Pass of Only 6.63 Air Yards
The Chiefs beat only one team with a winning record this season: the Philadelphia Eagles, in Week 3, when Michael Vick was still the quarterback. Kansas City had a successful year by playing good defense, winning the field position battle and playing conservatively on offense. Running backJamaal Charles was not just the workhorse in the running game, he also led the team in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. He is the first running back to pull off that hat trick since Mike Alstott did it for the 1996 Bucs.
Against weaker teams, Kansas City’s formula has been successful. Quarterback Alex Smith’s average pass this year has traveled just 6.63 yards in the air. According to the N.F.L.'s Game Statistic and Information System, that gives Smith the 36th lowest average among the 37 qualifying quarterbacks (ahead of Jacksonville’s Chad Henne). If the Chiefs are going to beat the top teams in the league, it will take more than good field position and an effective ground game: Smith will have to beat teams with deeper passes.
New Orleans: Can the Saints Win on the Road?
In home games this season, New Orleans was 8-0 and outscored opponents by 147 points, the largest difference in the league. But life was much more challenging for the Saints outside Louisiana: the team was 3-5 and outscored by 37 points, the 17th worst difference in the N.F.L. New Orleans heads to Philadelphia for a Saturday night game, and the temperature is expected to be in the high teens by kickoff. That is a bad sign for a team that has struggled in those conditions.
The Saints have never won a road playoff game, and dome teams in general have a poor record in cold-weather games. In playoff games when the weather was 35 degrees or below, dome teams have won 3 of 25 games. The three exceptions: Minnesota in Green Bay in 2004, Atlanta in Green Bay in 2002 and Indianapolis in Kansas City in 1995.
New England: Can the Patriots Win With Spare Parts?
A year ago, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Sebastian Vollmer, Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayowere half of the dozen best players on the Patriots. None of them will be suiting up for the Patriots this postseason. In fact, only 8 of the 22 starters for New England in the Super Bowl two years ago are even on the active roster. Perhaps most surprising of all, Tom Brady is the only player on the team’s active roster who has won a Super Bowl ring.
New England won 12 games this season, but not in typical Patriots fashion. The Patriots outscored opponents by “only” 6.6 points per game, the lowest margin for any Brady-led team since 2005. New England threw 25 touchdowns and allowed 25 touchdown passes, the only time under Brady the Patriots have not thrown more touchdowns than they allowed.
By virtue of earning the No. 2 seed, the Patriots can enjoy a bye week and a home game. But if both New England and Denver are victorious, the Patriots will have to travel to Denver for the A.F.C. championship game. That would be the first road playoff game for the Patriots in seven years. New England lost its last road playoff game, in 2006, to Peyton Manning’s Colts.
Carolina Panthers: 60 Sacks Lead the N.F.L.
Since 1970, 21 of the 43 teams to win the Super Bowl have ranked in the top five in sacks. Since 2004, 6 of 10 Super Bowl champions have ranked in the top three in sacks. Defensive ends Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson have combined for 26 sacks in 29 games, but Carolina brings the heat from all over the field. In addition to Johnson and Hardy, six other Panthers have at least three sacks, and four more have at least two sacks. The defensive coordinatorSean McDermott was masterly this year: despite a lack of talent in the secondary, the Panthers finished the season second in points and yards allowed.
Middle linebacker Luke Kuechly may be the best defensive player in the N.F.C. playoffs, and he leads a rush defense that ranked in the top two in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed. Once Carolina makes an opponent one-dimensional, the pass rush tends to take over the game. If the Panthers wind up facing the Seahawks in the N.F.C. championship game, they could take advantage of Seattle’s one weakness: the Seahawks’ offense was sacked on 9.5 percent of all pass plays this season, the highest rate of any team in the league.
San Diego Chargers: 31st in Net Yards Per Pass Allowed
San Diego’s defense has been terrible, particularly against the pass. The Chargers have allowed 7.10 net yards per pass attempt, the second worst average in the league (Atlanta was last at 7.11). No Super Bowl winner has ranked outside the top 20 in this statistic, while 28 Super Bowl champions ranked in the top five.
The Chargers’ defense performed well against the Broncos in December and the Colts earlier in the year, the only reasons for optimism. But a defense that allowed Terrelle Pryor and Chase Daniel to complete 74 percent of their passes collectively and throw for three touchdowns with no interceptions is a defense that has earned its 31st place ranking. San Diego managed to make it to the playoffs courtesy of an offense that ranked second in net yards per pass attempt, but one-dimensional teams do not usually make it far in the playoffs. Philip Rivers and the offense will be tested against a Bengals defense that was second in NY/A allowed, but the San Diego defense must improve significantly if the Chargers are going to make a playoff run.
December 31, 2013
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/01/s...c-behind-every-super-bowl-contender.html?_r=1
Each of the 12 teams in the N.F.L. playoffs has a big strength or a big weakness, and each has a statistic to tell the tale.
Denver Broncos: Quarterback Curse
Can Peyton Manning break the hex? Only four quarterbacks — Tom Brady (2007), Rich Gannon (2002), Kurt Warner (2001) and Dan Marino (1984) — have played in a Super Bowl in the season in which they won the passing yards title, with none of the four winning the game. Since 1950, only Johnny Unitas in 1959 and George Blanda in 1961 (in the American Football League) have led their league in passing yards and won a
championship in the same season.
Some quarterback will become the first player to pull off this feat at a Super Bowl, and Manning seems as strong a candidate as any: he broke the single-season record for passing yards, a record that withstood a
review. The last player to be named the N.F.L.'s most valuable player and win the Super Bowl in the same season was Warner, in 1999. Manning will almost certainly be named the M.V.P. for the fifth time in his career, which means he can end two streaks with one Super Bowl title.
Players from the Seattle Seahawks huddled on the field during a game against the St. Louis Rams on Sunday. CreditJohn Froschauer/Associated Press
Seattle Seahawks: Allowing the Fewest Yards, Recording the Most Interceptions
Seattle allowed 2,752 passing yards this season. Every other team allowed at least 3,100. The Seahawks also had 28 interceptions; no other team recorded more than 23 picks. Seattle is just the fourth team to lead the league in both of those categories. Two of the first three teams won championships that season (the 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 1963 Chicago Bears), while the third (the 1982 Miami Dolphins) lost in the Super Bowl.
Seattle was just one touchdown pass away from leading the league in that statistic, too. The Seahawks allowed only 16 touchdown passes this year, second to Tennessee (15). What makes Seattle’s 28 interceptions and 16 scoring passes allowed even more impressive is that, on average, the other 31 defenses this season averaged 15.3 interceptions and 25.4 touchdown passes allowed. The Seahawks’ defense also finished first in yards per attempt, net yards per attempt, yards per completion and passer rating. The Seahawks are a Super Bowl favorite because of the most dominant pass defense in the N.F.L. since at least the 2002 Buccaneers.
Philadelphia Eagles: A Bottom-Five Defense
The Eagles finished the regular season ranking 29th in yards allowed. Only four teams have won the Super Bowl when ranked outside the top 20 in that statistic: the 2001 Patriots (24th), the 2006 Colts (21st), the 2009 Saints (25th) and the 2011 Giants (27th). Although no team with a bottom-five defense has won the Super Bowl, two of the last four teams to win the title had defenses that ranked in the bottom eight. So, what gives?
Yards allowed is not a great way to measure a defense, and the Eagles’ defense is not as bad as that statistic would indicate. Philadelphia faced 670 pass attempts this season, 20 more than any other team in N.F.L. history (a record previously held by the 1995 Falcons). Pass attempts gain more yards than rush attempts, so a team that faces a record number of pass plays is going to allow a lot of yards. The Houston Texans saw just 484 pass attempts this year and ranked seventh in yards allowed — and posted the worst record in the N.F.L. Philadelphia’s pass defense is not good by any means, but the more important statistic is that the team ranked 22nd in net yards per pass allowed. The Eagles’ defense was also 12th best in red zone touchdown percentage and fourth best in yards per carry allowed, and it forced the third most turnovers in the league. The defense is not going to carry the team to the Super Bowl, but it is not a bottom-five unit, either.
Indianapolis Colts: Giant Killers Have Slain San Francisco, Denver and Seattle
Only six teams have ever beaten three teams in the regular season that won 12 or more games. Two of those teams, the 1990 Bills and the 1999 Titans, went on to play in the Super Bowl, while another, the 2003 Patriots, won the Super Bowl. The 2011 Ravens team that lost in the final seconds of the A.F.C. championship game, to New England, is also on the list. The 2002 Saints are the only outlier on the list: New Orleans swept the eventual Super Bowl champion Buccaneers but missed the playoffs.
Indianapolis, of course, is the sixth such team. Few teams run hot and cold like Indianapolis: countering those mammoth victories were embarrassing blowout losses to St. Louis, Arizona and Cincinnati. The Colts would be wise to put the game in Andrew Luck’s hands and waste fewer carries on Trent Richardson, but Indianapolis will not lack confidence entering the playoffs.
Green Bay Packers: Scored 417 points, Allowed 428
It would seem obvious that teams that are outscored in the regular season have no chance of winning the Super Bowl. But then the 2011 Giants happened. That season, the Giants were outscored by 6 points in the regular season, and they remain the only team even to make the Super Bowl after allowing more points than it scored. But in 2011 the Giants had the fourth hardest schedule, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metrics, which makes being outscored less surprising. That is not the case with this season’s Packers; Football Outsiders grades them as having the 24th toughest schedule.
When Aaron Rodgers returned on Sunday, it felt as if Green Bay’s Superman was back. But he cannot mask the fact that the offense is not as explosive as it used to be or patch the holes on defense. The other problem for the Packers is that the 49ers have been the team’s Kryptonite. Over the last three seasons, Rodgers has a 32-8 record against the rest of the N.F.L. and an 0-3 mark against San Francisco.
Cincinnati: Can Balance Rule the Day?
Only two teams ranked in the top seven in both points scored and points allowed: Cincinnati and Kansas City.
Only two teams this year ranked in the top 10 in points, points allowed, yards and yards allowed: the Bengals and the Saints.
The Bengals have not won a playoff game since 1990, the longest streak in the N.F.L., including back-to-back first-round losses to Houston. Fans have grown accustomed to strong regular seasons and early playoff exits from Cincinnati. To get to the Super Bowl, the Bengals would probably have to beat teams led by Philip Rivers, Tom Bradyand Peyton Manning. That’s a tall task, but the Bengals would have the best defense on the field in each game. If the elements cooperate — not an unreasonable assumption given January games in Ohio, Massachusetts and Colorado — Cincinnati could emerge from an A.F.C. playoff field featuring no other team that is strong on both sides of the ball.
Bonus Bengals statistic: Cincinnati was 4-0 against playoff teams this season, the best record among the 12 playoff teams.
San Francisco 49ers: Best Team Through Three Quarters
The 49ers followed an N.F.C. championship in 2012 with 1-2 and 6-4 starts this season. As a result, San Francisco is one of the more underappreciated 12-4 teams in recent memory. The 49ers have averaged 18.1 points through the first three quarters of every game, while allowing just 9.6; that 8.5-point differential is the best in the N.F.L. San Francisco has a habit of dominating teams early and letting up on them late: the 49ers have been outscored in the fourth quarters of games this season, 119-117. But will the team be more ruthless in the postseason?
Last year, Jim Harbaugh waited until the playoffs to unleash the full potential of the Pistol offense under Colin Kaepernick. Against the Packers, Kaepernick set an N.F.L. record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a game. San Francisco has operated conservatively this year, and easing up in the fourth quarter of games has hidden how dominant the 49ers can be. Does Harbaugh have another trick up his sleeve for January?
Kansas City Chiefs: Average Pass of Only 6.63 Air Yards
The Chiefs beat only one team with a winning record this season: the Philadelphia Eagles, in Week 3, when Michael Vick was still the quarterback. Kansas City had a successful year by playing good defense, winning the field position battle and playing conservatively on offense. Running backJamaal Charles was not just the workhorse in the running game, he also led the team in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. He is the first running back to pull off that hat trick since Mike Alstott did it for the 1996 Bucs.
Against weaker teams, Kansas City’s formula has been successful. Quarterback Alex Smith’s average pass this year has traveled just 6.63 yards in the air. According to the N.F.L.'s Game Statistic and Information System, that gives Smith the 36th lowest average among the 37 qualifying quarterbacks (ahead of Jacksonville’s Chad Henne). If the Chiefs are going to beat the top teams in the league, it will take more than good field position and an effective ground game: Smith will have to beat teams with deeper passes.
New Orleans: Can the Saints Win on the Road?
In home games this season, New Orleans was 8-0 and outscored opponents by 147 points, the largest difference in the league. But life was much more challenging for the Saints outside Louisiana: the team was 3-5 and outscored by 37 points, the 17th worst difference in the N.F.L. New Orleans heads to Philadelphia for a Saturday night game, and the temperature is expected to be in the high teens by kickoff. That is a bad sign for a team that has struggled in those conditions.
The Saints have never won a road playoff game, and dome teams in general have a poor record in cold-weather games. In playoff games when the weather was 35 degrees or below, dome teams have won 3 of 25 games. The three exceptions: Minnesota in Green Bay in 2004, Atlanta in Green Bay in 2002 and Indianapolis in Kansas City in 1995.
New England: Can the Patriots Win With Spare Parts?
A year ago, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Sebastian Vollmer, Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayowere half of the dozen best players on the Patriots. None of them will be suiting up for the Patriots this postseason. In fact, only 8 of the 22 starters for New England in the Super Bowl two years ago are even on the active roster. Perhaps most surprising of all, Tom Brady is the only player on the team’s active roster who has won a Super Bowl ring.
New England won 12 games this season, but not in typical Patriots fashion. The Patriots outscored opponents by “only” 6.6 points per game, the lowest margin for any Brady-led team since 2005. New England threw 25 touchdowns and allowed 25 touchdown passes, the only time under Brady the Patriots have not thrown more touchdowns than they allowed.
By virtue of earning the No. 2 seed, the Patriots can enjoy a bye week and a home game. But if both New England and Denver are victorious, the Patriots will have to travel to Denver for the A.F.C. championship game. That would be the first road playoff game for the Patriots in seven years. New England lost its last road playoff game, in 2006, to Peyton Manning’s Colts.
Carolina Panthers: 60 Sacks Lead the N.F.L.
Since 1970, 21 of the 43 teams to win the Super Bowl have ranked in the top five in sacks. Since 2004, 6 of 10 Super Bowl champions have ranked in the top three in sacks. Defensive ends Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson have combined for 26 sacks in 29 games, but Carolina brings the heat from all over the field. In addition to Johnson and Hardy, six other Panthers have at least three sacks, and four more have at least two sacks. The defensive coordinatorSean McDermott was masterly this year: despite a lack of talent in the secondary, the Panthers finished the season second in points and yards allowed.
Middle linebacker Luke Kuechly may be the best defensive player in the N.F.C. playoffs, and he leads a rush defense that ranked in the top two in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns allowed. Once Carolina makes an opponent one-dimensional, the pass rush tends to take over the game. If the Panthers wind up facing the Seahawks in the N.F.C. championship game, they could take advantage of Seattle’s one weakness: the Seahawks’ offense was sacked on 9.5 percent of all pass plays this season, the highest rate of any team in the league.
San Diego Chargers: 31st in Net Yards Per Pass Allowed
San Diego’s defense has been terrible, particularly against the pass. The Chargers have allowed 7.10 net yards per pass attempt, the second worst average in the league (Atlanta was last at 7.11). No Super Bowl winner has ranked outside the top 20 in this statistic, while 28 Super Bowl champions ranked in the top five.
The Chargers’ defense performed well against the Broncos in December and the Colts earlier in the year, the only reasons for optimism. But a defense that allowed Terrelle Pryor and Chase Daniel to complete 74 percent of their passes collectively and throw for three touchdowns with no interceptions is a defense that has earned its 31st place ranking. San Diego managed to make it to the playoffs courtesy of an offense that ranked second in net yards per pass attempt, but one-dimensional teams do not usually make it far in the playoffs. Philip Rivers and the offense will be tested against a Bengals defense that was second in NY/A allowed, but the San Diego defense must improve significantly if the Chargers are going to make a playoff run.