2019 outlook

[FrantikRam]

Seahawks
Vikings
Rams
Eagles
Panthers

Five teams, two playoff spots - feel free to swap out the Eagles for the Cowboys if you think that the Eagles will win the NFCE.

Despite the sky is falling mentality, the Rams are still in decent shape. Let's dive right in.

Seahawks: @Niners, BYE, @Eagles, Vikings, @rams, @Panthers, Cardinals, Niners

Vikings: Broncos, BYE, @Seahawks, Lions, @Chargers, Packers, Bears

Rams: Bears, Ravens, @Cardinals, Seahawks, @Cowboys, @Niners, Cardinals

Eagles: Patriots, Seahawks, @Dolphins, Giants, @Redskins, Cowboys, @Giants

Panthers: Falcons, @Saints, Redskins, @Falcons, Seahawks, @Colts, Saints



Right off the bat, the Vikings are in the playoffs - in fact, I think they will win the NFCN - but I checked the Packers schedule, and it's also littered with winnable games, so the NFC North will be fielding two playoff teams this year.

Second thing that comes to mind is that the Seahawks schedule is brutal - they play each and every other wildcard contender. For a team that has a record so much better than their point differential would indicate, this isn't a good sign for Seattle.

Third thing that I see is if the Eagles beat the Patriots, I think our game against the Cowboys may decide the 2nd wildcard spot. Any given Sunday and all that, and I get that the Eagles have had some clunkers - but they will be favored in all of their remaining games and have four games against bad teams. In fact as I'm writing this, I'm now confident the Eagles will win the NFC East. So:

Cowboys - @Lions, @Patriots, Bills, @Bears, Rams, @Eagles, Redskins

Much better. If the Cowboys lose to the Patriots, Bears and Eagles, we could lose to them and still get a wildcard.

Last thing is that - I just don't think the Panthers are that good.

Okay now what results do we need? We'll remove the Vikings and Eagles and focus on the Rams, Seahawks and Cowboys for the 2nd wildcard. Instead of going full on Rams homer, I'll try to make some reasonable picks:

Seahawks:

@Niners - L - we need this to happen. So the way the season has gone for the Rams, bet lots of money on Seattle tonight.
@Eagles - L
Vikings - W
@rams - L
@Panthers - W
Cardinals - W
Niners - L

Cowboys:

@Lions - W
@Patriots - L
Bills - W
@Bears - W
Rams - L
@Eagles - L
Redskins - W

Rams:

Bears - W
Ravens - L
@Cardinals - W
Seahawks - W
@Cowboys - W
@Niners - L
Cardinals - W

Some notes:

I think that the Cowboys are done. Whether we beat them or not, going to be tough for them to get in with that schedule.

Seahawks and Rams would both finish 10-6 here, but ultimately in this scenario we would have a better conference record.

So, rooting interest going forward: ignore the Niners, Saints, Packers, Eagles and Vikings - assume they are in. Ignore the Panthers for now, especially since we would own the tiebreaker against them. Root against the Cowboys and Seahawks every week - we need Seattle to lose at least four games, including the one to us. For the Cowboys, they need to lose three games - root against them every week in case they ultimately beat us. The Niners at Seahawks in week 17 may decide our fate - even if we are already even with Seattle, if they win that game, they'd get in because of division record.

The most important remaining games: for the Rams, all of them - but, if we can beat Chicago, relax and have a beer for the Ravens game - losing to an AFC team will not derail the season. If we lose to Seattle, season is over. Losing to the Cowboys would mean we would need a win at the Niners.

At the end of the day, I think Seattle will be the underdog against the Niners, Eagles, Rams, Panthers and Niners. Rams will be underdogs to the Cowboys and Niners (and possibly the Ravens). Cowboys will be underdogs against the Patriots and Eagles (and possibly the Bears).

So all we need to have happen is the favorites win, except for the Bears over the Cowboys (which may be a push), and Rams over the Cowboys.

Yes, the OL is in rough shape - but if we can get it done against the Bears, we have some teams with worse pass rushes coming up. We can do this.

 

[RamBall]

Our season isnt over mathematically, but it may be over mentally. I dont know how the OL can get good enough to win out after yesterdays performance, 1 loss and we may still get in but highly doubtful.

 

[SoCalRam78]

If you bend the mind, it works. But the Rams going 5-2? Not happening.

 

[Zodi]

Insert Jim Mora gif

 

[ramsince62]

Yup it's over. Math doesn't matter one bit....anyone with eyes knows this team isn't capable of attaining even a wild card spot. They'll be lucky to go 4-4 on the back end. The season ends for me at the end of December......it's going to be a looooong off season.

Then again, I guess there's always the XFL...

 

[Da-Rock]

I understand that many fans want the possibility of the Rams to be good, but they just aren't.

Looking at other teams to lose doesn't help if the Rams are losing. We are not a good team. Beating the Bears will only happen if their offense shits the bed and our Defense scores because Greg Z will need a 50+ average kick for FGs min.

I see they Rams winning two more games max and we will get blown out of many more. I don't see us beating the Cardinals because the Rams offense can't score against even bad defenses.

 

[Corbin]

 

[Da-Rock]

If the Rams had looked better against solid teams I would be more optimistic about their chances to keep winning, but we are looking at a Rams team that is playing the same as they were week one now in week 9.

McVay had two weeks to prepare for the Steelers and he nails 3 total points. 3 points after two weeks......!!!!!

Ya, we are done done.............like DUN done.

 

[jrry32]

It's going to be a struggle to get to 10 wins with this OL. I don't know what we can do.

 

[RamsCardsJazz]

I think they go 3-4 the rest of the way. Bears, Seahawks and one Cardinals game will be their wins, although that Bears game could be like a 12-9 kind of game, in anyone's favor.

 

[Da-Rock]

Where are we getting the points?

The Rams are a 3 to 9 point average team and our defense isn't that great either.

 

[Malibu]

Our season isnt over mathematically, but it may be over mentally. I dont know how the OL can get good enough to win out after yesterdays performance, 1 loss and we may still get in but highly doubtful.

We need a change in philosophy, roll outs, quicker passes, screens, shot gun instead of under center, more gadget plays etc. Every team has weaknesses and our defense is getting better to the point they should keep us in most games.

 

[hotanez]

we are done, we just lost a game where the defense gave up 10pts but by themselves scored 9pts. How can you lose a game like that? The offense is broken. Oline is shot, Goff is making bad decisions and Gurley is a mystery

 

[FrantikRam]

You guys are being ridiculous.

The Steelers and Niners have arguably the two best pass rushes in the NFL. Our OL will always struggle versus them. No question about that. And I don't think we can beat the Niners. But look at this:

2019 NFL DEFENSIVE LINE RATINGS | Football Outsiders

Regular season totals, playoffs not included Revised as of 3/29/2020 Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

www.footballoutsiders.com

Now this is just football outsiders, and just one metric of measuring pass rush by team. But SF and PIT are 1 and 2.

Here are the same rankings of the rest of the teams we face:

Chicago (12)
Baltimore (26)
Arizona (15)
Seattle (31)
Dallas (22)
SF (1)
Arizona (15)

We've beaten the teams that rank 3, 5 and 6. And if you remove the SF and PIT games (outliers since they are the two best pass rushing teams in the NFL), we've given up 8 sacks in our other 7 games.

Not only that, but again, removing those two games, here are our point totals for every other game:

30
27
20
40 (not a great offensive game despite the 40 points - 33 points for the offense)
29
37 (30 on offense)
24

Removing defensive scores, we average 27.5 points per game. Adding the defensive scores back in, we're basically at 30 points per game which is almost exactly where we were McVay's first year (and that also included defensive scores).

Also removing these two games, we're 5-2 and a missed FG away from 6-1.

Why does all that matter?

BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE TWO BEST PASS RUSHING TEAMS IN THE NFL. I'm fine saying we'll lose to the Niners in week 16 - but the rest of these games are games we can win, and the above proves that.

Keep sulking if you want - but we're not playing the SF and PIT pass rushes every week. This season is NOT over.

 

[Da-Rock]

You are dreaming and digging into numbers to make yourself feel better. 9 games in and what do you see with the Rams on both sides of the ball?

 

[kurtfaulk]

You guys are being ridiculous.

The Steelers and Niners have arguably the two best pass rushes in the NFL. Our OL will always struggle versus them. No question about that. And I don't think we can beat the Niners. But look at this:

2019 NFL DEFENSIVE LINE RATINGS | Football Outsiders

Regular season totals, playoffs not included Revised as of 3/29/2020 Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

www.footballoutsiders.com

Now this is just football outsiders, and just one metric of measuring pass rush by team. But SF and PIT are 1 and 2.

Here are the same rankings of the rest of the teams we face:

Chicago (12)
Baltimore (26)
Arizona (15)
Seattle (31)
Dallas (22)
SF (1)
Arizona (15)

We've beaten the teams that rank 3, 5 and 6. And if you remove the SF and PIT games (outliers since they are the two best pass rushing teams in the NFL), we've given up 8 sacks in our other 7 games.

Not only that, but again, removing those two games, here are our point totals for every other game:

30
27
20
40 (not a great offensive game despite the 40 points - 33 points for the offense)
29
37 (30 on offense)
24

Removing defensive scores, we average 27.5 points per game. Adding the defensive scores back in, we're basically at 30 points per game which is almost exactly where we were McVay's first year (and that also included defensive scores).

Also removing these two games, we're 5-2 and a missed FG away from 6-1.

Why does all that matter?

BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE TWO BEST PASS RUSHING TEAMS IN THE NFL. I'm fine saying we'll lose to the Niners in week 16 - but the rest of these games are games we can win, and the above proves that.

Keep sulking if you want - but we're not playing the SF and PIT pass rushes every week. This season is NOT over.

I feel surprisingly better after reading that.

Thanks for taking the time to research that and laying it all out for us.

.

 

[FrantikRam]

You are dreaming and digging into numbers to make yourself feel better. 9 games in and what do you see with the Rams on both sides of the ball?

On both sides of the ball? Seriously? Easy question: we have a borderline elite defense. Was ranked 4th in defensive DVOA and will probably go up after this week.

I see an average offense that looks great against bad defenses and bad against good defenses. OL and Goff have been bad but you can still see McVays genius at work from time to time. He's also made some mistakes.

Overall I see a team that can get hot and make some noise in the playoffs.

 

[Ellard80]

Yeah... I'm not giving up on the season yet. It appears some fans have, but shit in the Fisher years I'd dream of 5-4 record....

 

[FrantikRam]

I feel surprisingly better after reading that.

Thanks for taking the time to research that and laying it all out for us.

.

No problem. I think people have taken the "wtf was that" from the Bucs game and the missed FG from the Seahawks game and rolled the residual bad vibes into the Niner and Steeler games. That's why I wanted to look into it for myself.

The reality is the first two games were lost because of our secondary/defense and was solved by acquiring Ramsay. No one wants to pay attention because the Falcons suck but nobody has dominated them on D like we did. That's why I'm confident our D has been fixed.

OL isn't getting better, but then they've performed well against comparable defenses statistically that we will be playing for all but one game the rest of this season. And statistically were still a better team than Seattle - they've just been luckier than us this year. 6 seed is definitely still in play.

 

[Liberator]

You guys are being ridiculous.

The Steelers and Niners have arguably the two best pass rushes in the NFL. Our OL will always struggle versus them. No question about that. And I don't think we can beat the Niners. But look at this:

2019 NFL DEFENSIVE LINE RATINGS | Football Outsiders

Regular season totals, playoffs not included Revised as of 3/29/2020 Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

www.footballoutsiders.com

Now this is just football outsiders, and just one metric of measuring pass rush by team. But SF and PIT are 1 and 2.

Here are the same rankings of the rest of the teams we face:

Chicago (12)
Baltimore (26)
Arizona (15)
Seattle (31)
Dallas (22)
SF (1)
Arizona (15)

We've beaten the teams that rank 3, 5 and 6. And if you remove the SF and PIT games (outliers since they are the two best pass rushing teams in the NFL), we've given up 8 sacks in our other 7 games.

Not only that, but again, removing those two games, here are our point totals for every other game:

30
27
20
40 (not a great offensive game despite the 40 points - 33 points for the offense)
29
37 (30 on offense)
24

Removing defensive scores, we average 27.5 points per game. Adding the defensive scores back in, we're basically at 30 points per game which is almost exactly where we were McVay's first year (and that also included defensive scores).

Also removing these two games, we're 5-2 and a missed FG away from 6-1.

Why does all that matter?

BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE TWO BEST PASS RUSHING TEAMS IN THE NFL. I'm fine saying we'll lose to the Niners in week 16 - but the rest of these games are games we can win, and the above proves that.

Keep sulking if you want - but we're not playing the SF and PIT pass rushes every week. This season is NOT over.

I have little faith the Rams can make the playoffs, but I don't see why they can't win 4 or 5 of their remaining games. Still unsure if that's enough, but the Ravens and Niners are probably the only two teams that are noticeably better then the Rams.