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19-Handicap (Unofficial ROD Straight Pick'em 2016)

Discussion in 'SPORTSBOOK' started by flv, Aug 7, 2016.

  1. OldSchool

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    What a horrible week for picks. I'd been doing good the last few weeks until this garbage happened.
     
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  2. flv

    flv
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    There was a time when I was a few points ahead of you. Of late you've been scoring well. You were 70 points ahead of me and you looked poised to leave the sub-50% club. You still might, but this week was definitely a setback. If it's any consolation there are currently 6 lower scores than your 79 points on the week.
     
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  3. flv

    flv
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    Most players had both winners on Sunday. This improved the group's overall points % to 48% on the week. I have now double-checked the scores and the only error I had was the ROD Bookie pick on Thursday. Clearly the Eagles at 21 were the Thursday value pick since they were favourites. Generally the leaders did ok on the week and those in the bottom half did less well. The Week 16 winner is @RhodyRams who scored an impressive 173 out of 241. The only player to get within 28 points of him was guest player TonOdanK. I will put up the prize in the Sportsbook shortly. @Florida_Ram remains the overall leader with a 49.5 point cushion. 2nd to 5th are covered by just 17 points.

    Merry Christmas!
     
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  4. flv

    flv
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    The Cowboys were only worth 11 points on Monday Night but not picking them dropped @cvramsfan from 2nd to 4th. If a pick averages out at 16.25 points then the difference between 2nd and 5th is less than 1 pick. Week 17 started out tough but 3 favourites to finish with brought the group back close to 50% on the week. Some kept their title hopes alive but some crashed and burned. As previously mentioned @RhodyRams ruled the roost and finished with 184 out of 252. He's back in the title hunt! If there was 1 moment that changed the season it was the final play of the Bengals @ Texans game. There are 37 points on every game so if you have 1 team and the other player has the other team there's going to be a 37 point swing 1 way or the other. @Florida_Ram had the Texans whilst all but 1 of the chasing pack had the Bengals :eek:. Those 37 points look huge right now.

    You are all free to pick whomever you wish in Week 17. By all means pick the underdogs but if you're trying to out guess another player then good luck. There's no reason why they shouldn't adopt the same strategy :sneaky:. My advice is to pick winners. Winners score points and there are still no points for losing 'unique' picks :D. Good luck to all, especially those around the 50% mark. It's always good to finish the right side of the line. I mean...I think it would probably be nice to finish above 50%...not that i'd know :cry:.

    The best possible score was 252
    RhodyRams 184
    TonOdanK 171
    Riverumbbq 155
    Tron 145
    LumberTubs 144
    TK42-RAM 142
    Florida_Ram 139
    Dodgersrf 133
    cvramsfan 128
    flv 123
    OldSchool 117
    Ramrocket 108
    BriansRams 100
    DaveFan'51 87
    dolphinlover123 84
    Dagonet 80
    LACHAMP46 69

    Auto-pick scores:
    Roland (every road team) 103
    Hobart (every home team) 149
    Fanny (every favourite) 133
    Undra (every underdog) 119
    Max (maximum system theory) 69
    Minnie (minimum system theory) 183
    ROD Bookie (Thursday ML) 117

    Cumulative scores:

    The best possible score was 3684.5
    Florida_Ram 2048
    Riverumbbq 1995.5
    TK42-RAM 1989.5
    cvramsfan 1987.5
    RhodyRams 1981.5
    Tron 1954
    LumberTubs 1935.5
    Ramrocket 1906.5
    TonOdanK 1900.5
    DaveFan'51 1867.5
    Dagonet 1836.5
    OldSchool 1827.5
    Dodgersrf 1796.5
    dolphinlover123 1776
    flv 1770.5
    LACHAMP46 1680
    BriansRams 1361.5
    Jorgeh0605 1177
    Ken 1094
    Athos 775

    Auto-pick scores:
    Roland (every road team) 1848.5
    Hobart (every home team) 1852.5
    Fanny (every favourite) 1838.5
    Undra (every underdog) 1862.5
    Max (maximum system theory) 1901.5
    Minnie (minimum system theory) 1799.5
    ROD Bookie (Thursday ML) 1881

    If there's a winning auto-pick system I can't spot it.

    Week 17 is a full 16 game program and every game counts. I estimate the 16 game best possible score will be 260 points so 130 points will be the average/50% score. Obviously it could be a day for favourites or underdogs so that guess could be well wide of the mark. The 53.5 point lead equates to about 3.5 picks so RhodyRams in 5th is about 4.5 picks off the lead. He probably needs at least 12 winners and/or some luck. Tron is about 6 picks back so he needs 14 picks and/or some luck. Lumbertubs probably needs a near perfect week. Ramrocket and TonOdanK are mathematically still in it but they need near perfect weeks PLUS they'll need the leader to have a very poor week.

    My advice to Florida_Ram is to play a bit of Prevent Defense this week. You have a 50+ point lead and it will be difficult for some to catch you if you take the Dolphins and 49ers at around 28 points. Restricting potential losses to 9 or 10 in a few games might be the way to go. Then again...who ever won with Prevent Defense?...and you'd be ticked off if you ended up losing by a handful of points. Taking the short price favourites has worked well for you so far :unsure:. Are you going to defend your lead in the 'Green Jersey' alternative leaderboard for % points won from points contested? :sneaky:

    I'll be back later with the Week 17 handicaps and points scoring options. All the Week 16 picks are in the .zip file. (I did say it would be a multi-way battle in week 17 :)).

    Week 16.PNG
     

    Attached Files:

  5. cvramsfan

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    Two games I should have stayed with my original picks. 45+ point swing. Oh well! For a guy who couldn't name one player on every team I think I am doing ok. Here is hoping for a huge final week. Oh and GO RAMS!!!!
     
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  6. flv

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    Week 17 ESPN handicaps:
    Bills @ Jets 3.5
    Bears @ Vikings -5.5
    Ravens @ Bengals -2.5
    Browns @ Steelers -6.5
    Cowboys @ Eagles -2.5
    Texans @ Titans -2.5
    Jaguars @ Colts -4.5
    Patriots @ Dolphins 9.5
    Panthers @ Buccaneers -6.5
    Saints @ Falcons -6.5
    Raiders @ Broncos -1.5
    Chiefs @ Chargers 5.5
    Cardinals @ Rams 6.5
    Giants @ Redskins -7.5
    Seahawks @ 49ers 9.5
    Packers @ Lions 3.5

    Your points value choices:
    Bills 15 or Jets 22
    Bears 24 or Vikings 13
    Ravens 21 or Bengals 16
    Browns 25 or Steelers 12
    Cowboys 21 or Eagles 16
    Texans 21 or Titans 16
    Jaguars 23 or Colts 14
    Patriots 9 or Dolphins 28
    Panthers 25 or Buccaneers 12
    Saints 25 or Falcons 12
    Raiders 20 or Broncos 17
    Chiefs 13 or Chargers 24
    Cardinals 12 or Rams 25
    Giants 26 or Redskins 11
    Seahawks 9 or 49ers 28
    Packers 15 or Lions 22

    Welcome to the last chance saloon. I will fully understand if you don't want to post picks openly or post on the ESPN board for fear of giving up an information advantage. You can PM me the picks and count on my discretion. :censored:

    Tagging @cvramsfan, @Dagonet, @DaveFan'51, @Dodgersrf, @dolphinlover123, @Florida_Ram, @LACHAMP46, @LumberTubs, @OldSchool, @Ramrocket, @RhodyRams, @Riverumbbq, @TK42-RAM, @Tron, & @BriansRams

    Competitor pick information will be available for the discerning buyer. Prices start at ROD$2000, and for another ROD$5000 you can have the real information! :D
    :rimshot:
     
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  7. cvramsfan

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    That is funny cause I was thinking for ROD$15000 that @Florida_Ram or @BriansRams or @TK42-RAM or @LumberTubs or hell even @RhodyRams would sell you their picks. I can be had for cheaper but with me you might hit the season high for the week or season low!
     
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  8. DaveFan'51

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    Well Gentlemen, here's my last shot at making the Big Bucks! My Week 17 Picks!! It was effected by certain QB's getting their Legs Broken, and HC Firings!!(y);):D
    * Jets
    * Vikings
    * Ravens
    * Steelers
    * Eagles
    * Texans
    * Colts
    * Patriots
    * Buccaneers
    * Falcons
    * Broncos
    * Chiefs
    * Cards ( Hated to do this!!)
    * Giants
    * 'Hags
    * Packers
    " Good Luck, and Happy New Year!" drunk-smiley-emoticon.gif
     
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  9. cvramsfan

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    We agree on way to many of these. Based on you record lately I will need to rethink now. And I thought for sure I was going to be perfect this week! :hiding:
     
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  10. flv

    flv
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    The Dolphins beat the Patriots 20-10 in a meaningless Week 17 game last year.
    (Just laying down a smokescreen).
     
  11. DaveFan'51

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    I agree with you 10000%!! But remember, even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while, I may get lucky! then again you should probably play the odds!!:mrburnsevil:

    Don't plan on this happening two years in a row!!(y);)
     
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  12. flv

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    My picks, the auto-picks, and the Thursday Sportsbook lines are in the .zip file. Supposedly the best values picks this week are the Eagles and the Falcons.
     

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  13. RhodyRams

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    Bills 15 or Jets 22
    Bears 24 or Vikings 13
    Ravens 21
    or Bengals 16
    Browns 25 or Steelers 12
    Cowboys 21
    or Eagles 16
    Texans 21 or Titans 16
    Jaguars 23 or Colts 14
    Patriots 9 or Dolphins 28
    Panthers 25 or Buccaneers 12
    Saints 25 or Falcons 12
    Raiders 20 or Broncos 17
    Chiefs 13 or Chargers 24
    Cardinals 12 or Rams 25
    Giants 26
    or Redskins 11
    Seahawks 9 or 49ers 28
    Packers 15 or Lions 22
     
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  14. LACHAMP46

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    @flv
    Bills
    Bears
    Ravens
    Steelers
    Eagles
    Texans
    Jaguars
    Dolphins
    Buccaneers
    Falcons\
    Raiders
    Chiefs
    Rams
    Redskins
    49ers
    Packers
     
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  15. LumberTubs

    As idle as a painted ship upon a painted ocean
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    Bills
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    Ravens
    Steelers
    Cowboys
    Texans
    Colts
    Pats
    Bucs
    Falcons
    Broncos
    Chiefs
    Rams
    Redskins
    Seahawks
    Packers
     
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  16. flv

    flv
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    There's 1 game left to go but i'll end the suspense by saying congratulations to Overall Winner @Florida_Ram. He goes into the final game with a 71.5 point lead. Congratulations also to Week 17 Winner @DaveFan'51 whose high score of 187 was 35 points clear of the field.

    I can't tell you who will finish 2nd to 5th because there is only 19 points between the 4 of them with potentially 22 points available. I can't post the result of the alternative points % leaderboard for those who have missed picks either. Florida_Ram has extended his lead slightly over the 2 leading contenders but potentially he could lose that lead on the final Sunday Night game.
     
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  17. flv

    flv
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    Florida_Ram will be the alternative points % Champion even if his pick loses on Sunday Night and the others pick up 22 points. Should that happen he'll win by 0.2%, (which is equivalent to about 7 points).
     
  18. flv

    flv
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    First off - thank you all for playing.

    Week 17 is mercifully over, (from a Rams perspective), and the final results are in.
    There weren't too many upsets and there were a lot of very similar selections. Those that gambled generally came unstuck.

    The best possible score was 234
    DaveFan'51 202
    Dodgersrf 167
    Florida_Ram 154
    OldSchool 152
    BriansRams 141
    TK42-RAM 141
    cvramsfan 139
    Tron 135
    Dagonet 132
    RhodyRams 130
    LumberTubs 126
    TonOdanK 126
    flv 120
    Riverumbbq 106
    LACHAMP46 80
    Ramrocket 71

    Auto-pick scores:
    Roland (every road team) 84
    Hobart (every home team) 150
    Fanny (every favourite) 186
    Undra (every underdog) 48
    Max (maximum system theory) 121
    Minnie (minimum system theory) 113
    ROD Bookie (Thursday ML) 141

    Cumulative scores:

    The best possible score was 3918.5
    Florida_Ram 2202
    TK42-RAM 2130.5
    cvramsfan 2126.5
    RhodyRams 2111.5
    Riverumbbq 2101.5
    Tron 2089
    DaveFan'51 2069.5
    LumberTubs 2061.5
    TonOdanK 2026.5
    OldSchool 1979.5
    Ramrocket 1977.5
    Dagonet 1968.5
    Dodgersrf 1963.5
    flv 1890.5
    dolphinlover123 1776
    LACHAMP46 1760
    BriansRams 1502.5
    Jorgeh0605 1177
    Ken 1094
    Athos 775

    Auto-pick scores:
    Roland (every road team) 1932.5
    Hobart (every home team) 2002.5
    Fanny (every favourite) 2024.5
    Undra (every underdog) 1910.5
    Max (maximum system theory) 2022.5
    Minnie (minimum system theory) 1912.5
    ROD Bookie (Thursday ML) 2022

    Week 17.PNG
    Week autopicks.PNG
     
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  19. DaveFan'51

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    ATTENTION @cvramsfan I told you, even a Blind Squirrel can find a nut once in a while!! And I Won week 17!!:snicker::shades:

    tongue-out-smiley.png
     
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  20. flv

    flv
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    The prizes for the overall competition winner @Florida_Ram, 2nd place finisher @TK42-RAM, and 3rd place finisher @cvramsfan are now available in the Sportsbook. Commiserations to @Riverumbbq who went into the final week in 2nd place but fell to 4th after the afternoon games then 5th after the final Sunday Night game.

    End of competition analysis
    The overall leader had a good final week so his 50 point lead didn't come under threat. 2nd through 5th was ridiculously tight to the point where 2nd could have dropped to 5th if the Lions had won the last game of the season. As it was only 1 of those 4 players had the Lions which resulted in 4th and 5th swapping places. At the bottom most of those around the 50% mark had decent weeks so I have only 1 player for company in the sub 50% club.

    There was a 3-way battle for the alternative leaderboard. It didn't quite come down to the last game so TonOdanK wouldn't have won that title if the Lions had won. However with the other 2 picking the Packers it did cause him to drop to 3rd place. If the Lions had won he would have been 2nd, just 0.2% behind the leader. That would equate to about 8 points. If TonOdank had made picks in Week 14 he would have needed 176 points to win the Overall title, (which was unlikely), or 104 points to match 2nd, (which I think he would have exceeded even on a poor week).

    Generally there was a good turnout. 1 player missed 2 weeks, (including the final week when he was in mid-table), 2 other players missed 1 week each, 1 player missed the Saturday Night game, and 2 players missed an early Sunday kickoff. BriansRams, who finished 2nd in the alternative leaderboard, didn't join until after the 1st 4 weeks. 3 players abandoned during the tournament. 1 of those abandonments was due to the player being removed from the forum.

    The overall scoring was better than my pre-season projections. I thought 51.25% would be an average score. The 56.25% winning score was slightly lower than my 57% projection. 1% works out to 39 points, 1 point works out to .025%, and 1 winning pick averages out at about 16.25 points.
     
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