- Joined
- Jun 28, 2010
- Messages
- 48,283
- Name
- Burger man
http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mike-sando/post?id=7801
So many teams selecting near the top of the 2014 NFL draft need starting quarterbacks. Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Oakland own four of the first five selections, and none appears to have its long-term starter on its roster. The same goes for Minnesota and possibly Tampa Bay, both also drafting in the top 10. But unfortunately for QB-needy teams, the widely panned pro-day workout for Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater was about as convincing as the 2014 college QB class overall. Too many question marks exist for teams to comfortably pick one among the top few selections -- particularly in a draft brimming with premium talent at other positions.
Overdrafting a QB is bad enough, but it's worse when it's carried out at the expense of adding front-line talent. The 2011 draft comes to mind. Jacksonville selected quarterback Blaine Gabbert 10th, one spot before Houston landed J.J. Watt. Minnesota selected quarterbackChristian Ponder 12th, two spots before St. Louis chose Robert Quinn.
That was also the year two QB-needy teams, Arizona and San Francisco, came out looking smart for taking a cornerback (Patrick Peterson) and outside linebacker (Aldon Smith), respectively, among the top seven picks. Watt, Quinn, Peterson and Smith are building-block players. Gabbert, Ponder and the other overdrafted quarterback from 2011, Jake Locker, are not.
While pointing out the pitfalls of overdrafting is easy, resisting the temptation in the face of abiding need is not. There are no guarantees, regardless. While the Texans (Watt), Rams (Quinn) and Cardinals (Peterson) got it right in 2011, every one of those teams fired their coaches within a few years anyway. Poor quarterback play was largely to blame.
What's a smart team to do? A few calls around the league produced one viable option that could allow QB-needy teams to make the circumstances work to their advantage. We spell it out below while taking a closer look at which teams -- 13 overall -- need to draft QBs this year, when they should look to take one, and whom they should target. (Spoiler: There are a few teams on the list who have solid starters already in place.)
The 2014 draft is loaded with talent. A record number of underclassmen -- 98 this year, up from 73, 65 and 56 in the previous three -- accounts for some of the additional quality. "Best draft I've seen," Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht said at the scouting combine last month in Indianapolis. Smart teams will want to stockpile additional picks in this draft, and teams seeking quarterbacks might be able to use this to their advantage.
Instead of reaching for one in the top 10, some of these teams should use those early selections to land the highest-ranked prospects at other positions -- offensive tackle Greg Robinson, defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and receiver Sammy Watkins are good examples. From there, these teams should consider trading up from the second round to select a quarterback somewhere late in the first.
Everyone could be a winner under such a scenario. Most of the teams picking late in the first round already have franchise quarterbacks. Why not move back to acquire picks? "Teams would be thrilled to add picks anywhere in the first four rounds," one team executive said. Teams moving forward into the first round would benefit, too. They would get a QB to develop, and they would get him before the other QB-needy teams selected at the top of the second round.
They also would get their new QB under contract for five years instead of four, one benefit of selecting players in the first round. Waiting to take a quarterback later in the first round would also create more realistic expectations.
"If you are Houston and you take Clowney at 1, then move up into that 30, 31, 32 range to get your quarterback -- Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, whoever -- now you have a QB you like under contract five years and he is not the face of your franchise," one contract negotiator said. "That buys time. You don't have to play the kid day one."
Let's keep this thinking in mind when running through our list of 13 teams that should consider drafting quarterbacks this year, ranked in order of perceived need at the position. We begin with the top six, followed by the rest.
1. Oakland Raiders
Where to strike: The Raiders hold the fifth, 36th and 67th choices in the draft, plus four later picks. I don't think they're in great position to draft a QB early and play him right away, and they probably don't have the luxury of stashing one away for the future, either. They've gotten older in free agency and might be better off pursuing a veteran QB such as Matt Schaub or Michael Vick while building the rest of their roster.
Who to target: Mel Kiper Jr. recently had Teddy Bridgewater going to the Raiders as the most game-ready QB in the draft. That makes some sense if the Raiders do decide to take one with their first-round choice.
Thoughts: Oakland could revisit the position in 2015. The Raiders almost will surely be picking high once again after the scheduling rotation pits them against the NFC West this season. They could have a new coach and GM, too.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Where to strike: Taking Johnny Manziel third overall would energize fans and make the Jaguars feel more relevant, but so would building a winner on a sounder foundation. For that reason, they should consider taking a QB late in the first round after trading up from the 39th overall pick.
Who to target: Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr
Thoughts: The Jaguars are in prime position to follow the plan outlined in the section above. They own two fourth-round picks and three fifth-rounders, giving them ample ammunition to move into the first round for a shot at a Garoppolo/Carr type. This would allow them to maximize whatever value the third overall choice holds, either by selecting a high-impact player in that slot or trading backward if an opportunity arises unexpectedly. GM Dave Caldwell has said he'd like to add even more picks. "I don't get the sense Caldwell will take a QB early," one well-connected agent said.
3. Cleveland Browns
Where to strike: 26th overall pick
Who to target: Any QB that falls unexpectedly, or a Garoppolo/Carr type
Thoughts: When the Browns acquired Indianapolis' first-round pick in the Trent Richardsontrade, I figured the move would give them ammo needed to trade up further in the round for a shot at a top QB. Three things changed since then. Cleveland lost its final seven games, turning the Browns' own first-round choice into the fourth overall pick. The pool of available college prospects shrunk when Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley decided to remain in school. And then the draft-eligible QBs failed to gain as much momentum as hoped. The Browns remain in great shape, however. The extra picks they hold in the third and fourth rounds would let them trade up from No. 26 if they desired. They could stand pat and take a QB in that slot or they could even trade back. They can't go into the season with Brian Hoyer as their only viable option, however. They need to draft a QB.
4. Houston Texans
Where to strike: There's a sense among some in the league that Central Florida's Blake Bortles will be the Texans' choice at No. 1 because the team needs a QB, Bortles is perceived as a comfortable choice, and the coaching staff has ties to him. However, analysts almost universally say there isn't a QB deemed worthy of the first overall choice, so why force the selection for the wrong reasons? Taking one with the 33rd pick or after moving into the latter stages of the first round would make more sense under the circumstances.
Who to target: Garoppolo or Carr could be candidates if the Texans decide against taking a QB first overall. Otherwise, Bortles is probably the best fit.
Thoughts: The Texans are holding onto Schaub for now and face no pressure to trade or release him. Their thinking could change when rules allow players onto the field next month, beginning with Phase 1 of voluntary workouts (April 7 for teams with new coaches). There is no consensus around the league as to how Houston will proceed at the position. The Texans could hold onto Schaub into the draft just in case there's a trade market for him. They could decide Schaub remains their best short-term option even if they selected a QB early in the draft. Salary-cap room isn't a big concern.
5. Minnesota Vikings
When to strike: Ponder was the fourth QB taken in 2011. What if one of the first couple of quarterbacks falls to Minnesota this year? Kiper had Manziel going to the Vikings with the eighth overall choice. I just wonder whether GM Rick Spielman might be gun-shy this early in the draft after whiffing on Ponder three years ago. The Vikings have an extra third-round choice from the Percy Harvin trade, putting them in position to consider taking a developmental quarterback in that range.
Who to target: Manziel, Bortles or Bridgewater at No. 8, or AJ McCarron in a subsequent round -- possibly with one of those third-round choices.
Thoughts: The Vikings made headlines when they sent Spielman, coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Norv Turner to Alabama's pro day, where McCarron was performing. There were other prospects worth watching, of course, and teams work hard to mask their draft-day intentions. Still, if the Vikings plan on taking a QB somewhere after the first round, the McCarron speculation makes sense.
6. Tennessee Titans
When to strike: The Titans have only six selections in this draft, none in the third round. That makes it tough to justify drafting one when the 2014 season will be about giving Locker one more shot.
Who to target: Coach Ken Whisenhunt has worked with big, strong quarterbacks such as Ben Roethlisberger and John Skelton. Virginia Tech's Logan Thomas (6-6, 248) might fit the mold as a later-round selection.
Thoughts: Locker went 4-3 as a starter with a career-best 58.1 Total QBR score last season, but he got hurt, and he still has never played more than 11 games in a season, for various reasons. I'm not sure what the Titans saw in Charlie Whitehurst, other than a veteran familiar with Whisenhunt's offense from their time together in San Diego.
The rest:
7. New York Jets: GM John Idzik came from the Seattle Seahawks, who kept acquiring QBs at a rapid rate until Russell Wilson seized the job. The Jets, who own an additional fourth-round choice, need options beyond Geno Smith.
8. Buffalo Bills: Three knee injuries derailed EJ Manuel's rookie season. Thad Lewisis the backup. Yeah, the Bills need some insurance.
9. Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals must make a decision on Andy Dalton's contract during the next year. They could use a fallback with upside.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh McCown is the starter and Mike Glennon is the backup, so there shouldn't be an immediate need. However, new coach Lovie Smith's decision to name McCown the starter right away undercut Glennon. Is he still in the Buccaneers' plans?
11. Arizona Cardinals: Coach Bruce Arians brought in Drew Stanton as a potential successor to Carson Palmer. Perhaps that means Arizona is covered. Arians has earned the benefit of the doubt, and it's true that bad luck has kept Stanton off the field (his previous teams used first-round picks on Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck, while a shot with the Jets short-circuited when the team abruptly acquired Tim Tebow). But adding a QB to develop for the future wouldn't be a bad thing.
12. St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford is the starter, but is he the future? The Rams let backup Kellen Clemens go to San Diego. They've been talking to Shaun Hill. It's probably time to draft a QB just in case Bradford doesn't stick.
13. San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers own a league-high 11 selections and should add to their arsenal when the league distributes compensatory picks. Sure, they acquired Gabbert as a developmental prospect behind starter Colin Kaepernick, but for how long? Having another young drafted prospect wouldn't be a bad idea while Kaepernick's contract situation runs its course.
So many teams selecting near the top of the 2014 NFL draft need starting quarterbacks. Houston, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Oakland own four of the first five selections, and none appears to have its long-term starter on its roster. The same goes for Minnesota and possibly Tampa Bay, both also drafting in the top 10. But unfortunately for QB-needy teams, the widely panned pro-day workout for Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater was about as convincing as the 2014 college QB class overall. Too many question marks exist for teams to comfortably pick one among the top few selections -- particularly in a draft brimming with premium talent at other positions.
Overdrafting a QB is bad enough, but it's worse when it's carried out at the expense of adding front-line talent. The 2011 draft comes to mind. Jacksonville selected quarterback Blaine Gabbert 10th, one spot before Houston landed J.J. Watt. Minnesota selected quarterbackChristian Ponder 12th, two spots before St. Louis chose Robert Quinn.
That was also the year two QB-needy teams, Arizona and San Francisco, came out looking smart for taking a cornerback (Patrick Peterson) and outside linebacker (Aldon Smith), respectively, among the top seven picks. Watt, Quinn, Peterson and Smith are building-block players. Gabbert, Ponder and the other overdrafted quarterback from 2011, Jake Locker, are not.
While pointing out the pitfalls of overdrafting is easy, resisting the temptation in the face of abiding need is not. There are no guarantees, regardless. While the Texans (Watt), Rams (Quinn) and Cardinals (Peterson) got it right in 2011, every one of those teams fired their coaches within a few years anyway. Poor quarterback play was largely to blame.
What's a smart team to do? A few calls around the league produced one viable option that could allow QB-needy teams to make the circumstances work to their advantage. We spell it out below while taking a closer look at which teams -- 13 overall -- need to draft QBs this year, when they should look to take one, and whom they should target. (Spoiler: There are a few teams on the list who have solid starters already in place.)
The 2014 draft is loaded with talent. A record number of underclassmen -- 98 this year, up from 73, 65 and 56 in the previous three -- accounts for some of the additional quality. "Best draft I've seen," Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht said at the scouting combine last month in Indianapolis. Smart teams will want to stockpile additional picks in this draft, and teams seeking quarterbacks might be able to use this to their advantage.
Instead of reaching for one in the top 10, some of these teams should use those early selections to land the highest-ranked prospects at other positions -- offensive tackle Greg Robinson, defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and receiver Sammy Watkins are good examples. From there, these teams should consider trading up from the second round to select a quarterback somewhere late in the first.
Everyone could be a winner under such a scenario. Most of the teams picking late in the first round already have franchise quarterbacks. Why not move back to acquire picks? "Teams would be thrilled to add picks anywhere in the first four rounds," one team executive said. Teams moving forward into the first round would benefit, too. They would get a QB to develop, and they would get him before the other QB-needy teams selected at the top of the second round.
They also would get their new QB under contract for five years instead of four, one benefit of selecting players in the first round. Waiting to take a quarterback later in the first round would also create more realistic expectations.
"If you are Houston and you take Clowney at 1, then move up into that 30, 31, 32 range to get your quarterback -- Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr, whoever -- now you have a QB you like under contract five years and he is not the face of your franchise," one contract negotiator said. "That buys time. You don't have to play the kid day one."
Let's keep this thinking in mind when running through our list of 13 teams that should consider drafting quarterbacks this year, ranked in order of perceived need at the position. We begin with the top six, followed by the rest.
1. Oakland Raiders
Where to strike: The Raiders hold the fifth, 36th and 67th choices in the draft, plus four later picks. I don't think they're in great position to draft a QB early and play him right away, and they probably don't have the luxury of stashing one away for the future, either. They've gotten older in free agency and might be better off pursuing a veteran QB such as Matt Schaub or Michael Vick while building the rest of their roster.
Who to target: Mel Kiper Jr. recently had Teddy Bridgewater going to the Raiders as the most game-ready QB in the draft. That makes some sense if the Raiders do decide to take one with their first-round choice.
Thoughts: Oakland could revisit the position in 2015. The Raiders almost will surely be picking high once again after the scheduling rotation pits them against the NFC West this season. They could have a new coach and GM, too.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
Where to strike: Taking Johnny Manziel third overall would energize fans and make the Jaguars feel more relevant, but so would building a winner on a sounder foundation. For that reason, they should consider taking a QB late in the first round after trading up from the 39th overall pick.
Who to target: Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr
Thoughts: The Jaguars are in prime position to follow the plan outlined in the section above. They own two fourth-round picks and three fifth-rounders, giving them ample ammunition to move into the first round for a shot at a Garoppolo/Carr type. This would allow them to maximize whatever value the third overall choice holds, either by selecting a high-impact player in that slot or trading backward if an opportunity arises unexpectedly. GM Dave Caldwell has said he'd like to add even more picks. "I don't get the sense Caldwell will take a QB early," one well-connected agent said.
3. Cleveland Browns
Where to strike: 26th overall pick
Who to target: Any QB that falls unexpectedly, or a Garoppolo/Carr type
Thoughts: When the Browns acquired Indianapolis' first-round pick in the Trent Richardsontrade, I figured the move would give them ammo needed to trade up further in the round for a shot at a top QB. Three things changed since then. Cleveland lost its final seven games, turning the Browns' own first-round choice into the fourth overall pick. The pool of available college prospects shrunk when Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley decided to remain in school. And then the draft-eligible QBs failed to gain as much momentum as hoped. The Browns remain in great shape, however. The extra picks they hold in the third and fourth rounds would let them trade up from No. 26 if they desired. They could stand pat and take a QB in that slot or they could even trade back. They can't go into the season with Brian Hoyer as their only viable option, however. They need to draft a QB.
4. Houston Texans
Where to strike: There's a sense among some in the league that Central Florida's Blake Bortles will be the Texans' choice at No. 1 because the team needs a QB, Bortles is perceived as a comfortable choice, and the coaching staff has ties to him. However, analysts almost universally say there isn't a QB deemed worthy of the first overall choice, so why force the selection for the wrong reasons? Taking one with the 33rd pick or after moving into the latter stages of the first round would make more sense under the circumstances.
Who to target: Garoppolo or Carr could be candidates if the Texans decide against taking a QB first overall. Otherwise, Bortles is probably the best fit.
Thoughts: The Texans are holding onto Schaub for now and face no pressure to trade or release him. Their thinking could change when rules allow players onto the field next month, beginning with Phase 1 of voluntary workouts (April 7 for teams with new coaches). There is no consensus around the league as to how Houston will proceed at the position. The Texans could hold onto Schaub into the draft just in case there's a trade market for him. They could decide Schaub remains their best short-term option even if they selected a QB early in the draft. Salary-cap room isn't a big concern.
5. Minnesota Vikings
When to strike: Ponder was the fourth QB taken in 2011. What if one of the first couple of quarterbacks falls to Minnesota this year? Kiper had Manziel going to the Vikings with the eighth overall choice. I just wonder whether GM Rick Spielman might be gun-shy this early in the draft after whiffing on Ponder three years ago. The Vikings have an extra third-round choice from the Percy Harvin trade, putting them in position to consider taking a developmental quarterback in that range.
Who to target: Manziel, Bortles or Bridgewater at No. 8, or AJ McCarron in a subsequent round -- possibly with one of those third-round choices.
Thoughts: The Vikings made headlines when they sent Spielman, coach Mike Zimmer and offensive coordinator Norv Turner to Alabama's pro day, where McCarron was performing. There were other prospects worth watching, of course, and teams work hard to mask their draft-day intentions. Still, if the Vikings plan on taking a QB somewhere after the first round, the McCarron speculation makes sense.
6. Tennessee Titans
When to strike: The Titans have only six selections in this draft, none in the third round. That makes it tough to justify drafting one when the 2014 season will be about giving Locker one more shot.
Who to target: Coach Ken Whisenhunt has worked with big, strong quarterbacks such as Ben Roethlisberger and John Skelton. Virginia Tech's Logan Thomas (6-6, 248) might fit the mold as a later-round selection.
Thoughts: Locker went 4-3 as a starter with a career-best 58.1 Total QBR score last season, but he got hurt, and he still has never played more than 11 games in a season, for various reasons. I'm not sure what the Titans saw in Charlie Whitehurst, other than a veteran familiar with Whisenhunt's offense from their time together in San Diego.
The rest:
7. New York Jets: GM John Idzik came from the Seattle Seahawks, who kept acquiring QBs at a rapid rate until Russell Wilson seized the job. The Jets, who own an additional fourth-round choice, need options beyond Geno Smith.
8. Buffalo Bills: Three knee injuries derailed EJ Manuel's rookie season. Thad Lewisis the backup. Yeah, the Bills need some insurance.
9. Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals must make a decision on Andy Dalton's contract during the next year. They could use a fallback with upside.
10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh McCown is the starter and Mike Glennon is the backup, so there shouldn't be an immediate need. However, new coach Lovie Smith's decision to name McCown the starter right away undercut Glennon. Is he still in the Buccaneers' plans?
11. Arizona Cardinals: Coach Bruce Arians brought in Drew Stanton as a potential successor to Carson Palmer. Perhaps that means Arizona is covered. Arians has earned the benefit of the doubt, and it's true that bad luck has kept Stanton off the field (his previous teams used first-round picks on Matthew Stafford and Andrew Luck, while a shot with the Jets short-circuited when the team abruptly acquired Tim Tebow). But adding a QB to develop for the future wouldn't be a bad thing.
12. St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford is the starter, but is he the future? The Rams let backup Kellen Clemens go to San Diego. They've been talking to Shaun Hill. It's probably time to draft a QB just in case Bradford doesn't stick.
13. San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers own a league-high 11 selections and should add to their arsenal when the league distributes compensatory picks. Sure, they acquired Gabbert as a developmental prospect behind starter Colin Kaepernick, but for how long? Having another young drafted prospect wouldn't be a bad idea while Kaepernick's contract situation runs its course.
